To The Moon

The deal-signal is meaningful — but it is not a unilateral ignition switch. Context Shutdown-risk is a liquidity drag and confidence drag, not a valuation input by itself. When headlines suggest resolution, algos remove the “policy impairment discount” and risk assets naturally retrace intraday — which is exactly what you saw yesterday. However — the next leg up still requires two confirmations: 1. that the shutdown actually ends, not merely “intent to negotiate” 2. that the short-term resolution does not re-introduce a new cliff in 4–8 weeks The proposed structure — reopen now + ACA tax credit extension separated — is politically elegant, but markets will only reward the signed outcome, not the floated idea. So next week — what is the probability of a re-round? Positive skew exists — poli

Among $200 club, who has the best shot at hitting $300 by year-end — Google, Amazon, or Apple?: Honestly, seeing the recent rundown, $300 for any  these stocks by the year end looks tough. If things improve drastically, I feel Google has the best chance followed given its pedigree in innovation & foray into new technologies including AI. Has the market overreacted to recent tech stock corrections, or are these the first cracks of an AI valuation bubble?: I would really like yo think this was a temporary blip and that things would improve sooner rather  than later. But considering huge shorts are at play on the majority AI players, we could expect some pain in the short run. And the 🐍 & 🪜 game would be stable all through Trump's tenure. Who is the best buy now?: Given the

$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Hold onto your portfolios, folks—the Dow Jones Industrial Average just pulled off a jaw-dropping comeback that's got Wall Street buzzing! 😎 After plunging into the red earlier in the session, the blue-chip benchmark flipped the script, surging back to close in positive territory. Now sitting pretty at 46,970.2 points, it's up a solid 56.5 points or 0.12% for the day. This wild swing highlights the market's unshakeable grit, even as volatility swirls like a storm. 🌪️ But here's the kicker: despite the chaos, the index is hovering a mere 3% below its all-time highs, teasing investors with the promise of new records just around the corner. 🏆 Let's break it down—why the drama? Markets kicked off with a dip, likely fueled by mixed eco

Disclaimer: These views are for informational purposes only and are not individualized investment advice. Investing in stocks involves risk, including loss of principal. You should assess your financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment horizon before making any decision. ✅ Stock Pick: MSFT (Microsoft Corporation) Stock market information for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) • Microsoft Corporation is a equity in the USA market. • The price is 496.82 USD currently with a change of -0.09 USD (-0.00%) from the previous close. • The latest open price was 497.0 USD and the intraday volume is 24019764. • The intraday high is 499.05 USD and the intraday low is 493.28 USD. • The latest trade time is Saturday, November 8, 09:15:00 +0800. Why I like it: • Microsoft recently reported a solid qua

If I had to simplify software market cycles, I’d say they come in two phases: the expansionary phase and the consolidation phase.In the expansionary phase, buyers scoop up software almost indiscriminately. There’s little concern for cost or efficiency, what matters is speed. It’s about accelerating product development, capturing market share, or outspending competitors to stay ahead, all under the assumption that growth will take care of everything else. During this phase, public markets shift their focus entirely to growth over profits. Take a look at the multiples chart I post later on breaking out multiples by high, medium, and low-growth companies. You can see the high-growth bucket has seen multiple expansion this year, while the mid-growth bucket has seen steady contraction.In the co

EW Macro Thesis: 2025–2030 Every major asset just told me the same story: 20–30% correction 2025-26 → Greatest blow-off top in history 2027-30 → Secular peak post-2030 8 charts. One roadmap. The Setup + Full Path Indices finishing Wave (3)/(5) of V off 2009 low $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ blew past 2021-25 trendlines $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rejected on first tag $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ still trapped below its 2021 bear trend Phase 1 → 20-30% flush 2025-26 SPX 5100-5500 NDX 18k-19k DJI 36.5k-39k IWM 150-186 Phase 2 → Wave 5 of V 2027-30 SPX 9,000-10,000 NDX 30,000+ DJI 50k-55k Dot-com on steroids. Then the c

U.S. stock markets wrapped up a turbulent week with major indices finishing lower. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ took the biggest hit, recording its worst weekly performance since April as investors grappled with concerns about stretched valuations and a possible AI sector bubble. The market’s unease showed up in the Fear & Greed Index, which settled at 21, squarely in “Extreme Fear” territory.Friday’s trading captured the week’s choppy character. Stocks tumbled early in the session before clawing back from their monthly levels to finish mixed. The Dow managed to bounce from the weekly support $46,566 (modeled last week ahead of the recent price action), $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced from $6,620, (another monthl

The $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ earnings report once again had something for everyone this week. Revenue growth picked up sequentially, but margins fell, and the stock has been up and down ever since.One of the things we’re seeing is a more “normal” growth rate. You can see below that some of the GLP-1 growth from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025 was temporary in nature. But if you cut out that growth, the growth rate looks much more stable.This continues to be a company we need to look at with a long-term lens, which rides out the short-term volatility in the stock. Everything is intact for this to be a 10x stock over the next decade; it’ll just take time to get there.The Novo Nordisk BombshellDisclosure of discussion with