To The Moon

The title is my attitude toward the Q4 market — more precisely, through Anthropic's IPO. Q4 has three major tailwinds. First, Anthropic has tentatively finalized its IPO date. It's reportedly planning a large-scale IPO before the Thanksgiving holiday (around November 26), and could begin IPO marketing as early as the week of November 9. It plans to target a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion. As everyone knows, a blockbuster company going public means the market atmosphere has to be heated up — the market must rise. Second, historical data: since 1930, the S&P 500 has averaged a 5.6% gain in Q4 of midterm election years — twice the average gain of other years. Third, tonight's nonfarm payrolls. Only 29,000 jobs added — it made me laugh. Rate-hike odds immediately dropped.

TLT and Treasury yields typically move inversely, so the surge in yields pushed TLT below 80, hitting historic lows. However, a mysterious options block trade suggests this trend may be nearing a temporary end. During today's session, someone opened 80,000 contracts of the November 30-expiry TLT call at the 83 strike $TLT 20261130 83.0 CALL$ , with a total notional of about $3 million. It's possible the buyer simply thought it was too low and saw a rebound opportunity, so they went all in — because $3 million in notional isn't particularly impressive in today's world of A9-level wealth; it only shows that buyers are tempted at this level. Still, nearly 100,000 contracts in volume is enough to sound an alarm for market mak

$Intel(INTC)$ If you ask me what the most worth-holding stock in October is, yesterday I wouldn't have had a definitive answer — but today I can confidently say it's Intel. On Monday, a large Sell Call block opened, selling the October 16-expiry 130 Call $INTC 20261016 130.0 CALL$ , opening 52,000 contracts. Someone also opened a 160 Sell Call and an October 9-expiry 130 Sell Call, but both were under 10,000 contracts. Ordinary Sell Call block trades get absorbed into the options wall, but a 50,000-contract Sell Call block carries reflexivity. The effect of these massive seller block trades plays out in two phases: In the first phase, the validity of the block trade is confirmed

Monday's chip stock plunge wasn't just due to crude oil prices rising again — Meta's stock price also pulled back, and as seen from last week's correlation, the two are highly linked. But no need to rush, because OpenAI is also about to launch an around-the-clock online assistant this week. It's foreseeable that Anthropic and other major players will follow suit with personal assistants. So the conclusion is: Monday's pullback is very suitable for Sell Puts, for example: $SKHY 20261009 170.0 PUT$  $MU 20261002 900.0 PUT$  $MRVL 20261009 220.0 PUT$ 

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Last week's price target was 700, and this week's target has already become 800. Theoretically, if Muse integrates more functions and participates in more work applications that require privacy authorization, the stock's upside ceiling will rise even further. This round of Muse's marketing has been extremely successful, precisely capturing user pain points, which is why it ranked #2 on the app download charts in its first week. I think it's not impossible for the stock to have an even higher ceiling — closely monitor Muse's feature updates going forward. For a conservative bullish strategy ahead of earnings, Sell Put is fine. For the strike price, consider 700

$Intel(INTC)$ Tonight's short squeeze in CPU concept stocks was spectacular — AMD hit a trillion-dollar market cap intraday, and Pelosi's ITM call position rose 23% $INTC 20270319 50.0 CALL$ . The reasons behind this squeeze are complex: various delayed industry catalysts finally fermented — like the Meta App Store ranking news we'd been talking about all last week, which only exploded today, and then the C-end application surge, which in turn benefited chips; the crude oil plunge cooled inflation expectations; Of course, the most important factor was the positioning of the chips. The expectation of a late-September pullback was so deeply ingrained that last week saw a pile of Sell

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Thursday's meeting didn't just deliver one rate hike — it also signaled another hike later this year, which is about as hawkish as it gets. Maxing out expectations isn't necessarily bad — it means the market's next focus won't be on data beating expectations, but on what happens if data comes in below expectations. But after the hawkish hike, the market didn't pull back significantly — tech stocks rebounded and led the gains. This is the current "three highs" environment: high growth, high inflation, high rates. According to late-September tradition, the market should pull back. But looking at the directional bets from large block trades, bulls and bears are split roughly 50/50 — you could even say the bullish side

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Based on GEX analysis, SPY is likely to close at 750 this week — rate hike or not, that's the price. Barring any surprises, low-level consolidation should begin next week. Also interesting: GLD saw a buy-side opening of 15,000 contracts on the 430 Call $GLD 20261120 430.0 CALL$ — suggesting gold has a high probability of bottoming out after Friday's meeting. $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ Everyone thinks Trump is about to make a deal, but before any deal, there will surely be one more round of death threats. Generally, Trump chooses to announce during trading hours on a weekday — he won't pick a weekend wh

Over the weekend, the three tech giants reached a verbal agreement to slow AI development, causing AI-related concept stocks to plunge — hardware fell, and cloud giants fell too. But I'm thinking about something else: Anthropic's post-IPO earnings and stock performance will likely be very hard to predict, because the CEO can say whatever he wants. Data disclosure is one thing; the earnings call is another. The broader market pullback driven by the three giants' rhetoric looks like a great Sell Put opportunity to me. I mean, do you believe commercial companies won't compete, or do you believe I'm Qin Shi Huang? The verbal slowdown has no actual capex data to back it up — it looks more like expectation management. One explanation for the three giants' slowdown is that they're compromising wi

30-year Treasury yields hit another new high, and oil prices continued rising, breaking above $100. Trump said oil prices won't fall until after the midterm elections — meaning there's one last push higher — so oil prices duly rallied first. The broader market dipped slightly. As long as Friday's CPI isn't too outrageous, the likely outcome is a dip-and-rebound. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Judging from call openings, the target for this MUSE-driven move is 700, with many large block trades opening $META 20261002 670.0 CALL$  $META 20261016 800.0 CALL$ . But whether it can reach that level and the path it takes