A headline crossed today: 25-year-old "Wall Street prodigy" Leopold Aschenbrenner disclosed his fund's holdings. As of March 31st, his reported put options were valued at approximately $8.459 billion — spanning SMH, NVDA, MU, AVGO, AMD, TSM, and others. 13F filings reflect actual holdings at quarter end. Closed positions don't appear. So this report wouldn't include weekly puts. But the list of names feels familiar — and brings me back to some massive put orders we saw in Q1: Israel-Iran conflict: risk fully priced?*100k weekly puts bet NVDA below 170* If you've been following, you'll remember the relentless wave of semiconductor put prints back in
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ The large put order $SOXL 20260612 170.0 PUT$ closed faster than expected — marking the end of this round of selling. The bears had hoped to push this down to the 10-day or even 20-day moving average. But dip buyers showed up in force, far outnumbering the panicked sellers. Expect more one-day pullbacks like this in the future — but not necessarily more follow-through. $Sony(SONY)$ Sony's base case: 25. Bull case: 30. On Monday, a 60k contract order hit the July 25 call $SONY 20260717 25.0 CALL$ . Another 9k were add
$40 Million Large Order Bets on Near-Term Semi Pullback
SOXL Why near-term? Because this pullback appears carefully orchestrated. On Tuesday, a large bearish order hit the triple-long semiconductor ETF: $SOXL 20260612 170.0 PUT$ — 17,000 contracts, over $40 million in premium. You can gauge conviction by the notional. At $40M+, this isn't a lottery ticket — it's a serious short. Large orders in leveraged ETFs are rare — they decay over time and don't behave well in slow grinding moves. When they show up, it signals an explosive move either way. Expiration is June 12, roughly 30 days out, implying a short, sharp correction — could last a week, maybe two. These trades tend to take profits quickly. So watch the 170 put
S&P Will Hit 8,000 — But Anthropic Will Decide the Outcome
$SPY$ S&P 8,000 isn't just a random headline. It's backed by recent positioning — a number of far-dated call options at the 800 strike have seen significant volume: $SPY 20270319 800.0 CALL$ $SPY 20260930 800.0 CALL$ $SPY 20270617 800.0 CALL$ These were opened at different times: early April, mid-April, and just a couple of days ago. Looking at the expirations, no one expects this to happen overnight — Q3 at the earliest. But at this pace, I wouldn't be surprised if SPY hits 800 by June. The catalyst behind this surge is simple — and I've mentioned it before: Anthropic's revenue da
$INTC$ An absolutely absurd rally. I thought recommending sell puts yesterday was aggressive — turns out it was still too conservative. Some large call buys have appeared, like $INTC 20260821 110.0 CALL$ and $INTC 20260618 130.0 CALL$ . That said, judging by the tape, some of those may have been closed by the end of the day. Put strikes are roughly where expected — around 70. Selling puts at that level is fine, or just wait for a pullback. For holders: not every potential pullback requires exiting a position. Some may try to sell high and buy back lower — but this year, that's a great way to get left behind. $NVDA$ Same view as yesterday: range-bound
Unexpected Earnings Disclosure: OpenAI Roils the Chip Sector
Tonight's price action says it all. The sell-off stems from a rumor about OpenAI's performance — specifically, that the company missed its internal revenue target for the first quarter. That's awkward. Competitors Google and Anthropic are both seeing growth. Only OpenAI is stagnating. If Google and Anthropic fail to deliver results this year, the US market would be looking at a crash far worse than tonight's move. All things considered, tonight's drop isn't that severe. This OpenAI revenue news is essentially a mini-earnings report. Barring surprises, we're likely to see this same dynamic repeat next quarter. On the flip side, we could also see a similar repeat of the Anthropic growth narrative. The biggest issue from OpenAI's miss: the company pre-booked massive data center capacity. If r
$NVDA$ For the first time in nine months, NVDA looks ready to break into a new range. We're now in the phase of testing the upper bound — expectations point to 225–235. Given NVDA's massive market cap, a 10–20% surge isn't exactly typical. That makes selling puts a more comfortable way to chase the move. The strike depends on your risk tolerance. $AMD$ AMD should hit 400 this year. Pullbacks are good entry points. Right now, the bears are targeting the 5-day moving average at 310 and the gap at 300. If this were last year's market, I'd say AMD would either rally into earnings or hold 330 in a tight range, then pull back post-print — a perfect entry opportunity. But after Intel's earnings, those old rules may not apply. That said, Friday's jump likely priced in much of the upside. So the po
$INTC$ Selling premium in this market is tricky — you never know which stock will catch a hot narrative and get flooded with retail flow. Looking at recent chip earnings, even good expectations aren't enough if the numbers fall short. Intel's earnings should be solid, with full-year guidance likely raised. But some of the run-up is already priced in. Selling puts is still the safer approach — consider the 60 strike $INTC 20260424 60.0 PUT$ . There were quite a few 50-strike puts positioned for a pullback. But given the current CPU hype, 50 will attract strong dip-buying. Most put flow seems to have abandoned the 50 target, shifting focus to the 55–60 range. Earnings could still produce a sell-off. That said, I wouldn't rec