To The Moon

Here are the 25 companies currently standing out to me for their growth potential, market position, or long-term asymmetric upside. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ — Audio streaming platform with more than 600 million active users worldwide. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ — A leading blockchain platform with the balance sheet and management team to benefit if crypto, blockchain and Web3 continue expanding over the next decade. $Portillo’s Inc.(PTLO)$ — A fast-growing restaurant brand built around hot dogs, burgers and a scalable store model. $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ — A space tourism company pursuing a new category of comm

Coming into 2026, the promise was for lower interest rates and a booming economy. But reality has been far different. The 10-year treasury yield, which is a proxy for everything from mortgages to corporate debt, continues to rise and is now at a level not consistently seen since 2001. And mortgage rates have spiked more than a full percentage point since March and will likely climb over 7.25%, or more, in the coming weeks as higher rates move through the system. What does all of this mean for the market? I’ll get to that in a moment. Higher Rates and the Market Like it or not, interest rates are important for the economy and the market. Lowering interest rates is like adding fuel to a fire. But raising rates is like snuffing a fire out. And over the last few weeks, rates have risen rapidly

⚠️ This Is What a Downward Spiral Looks Like Growth depends on debt. Debt gets more expensive → the stock falls → equity becomes a weaker backstop → but growth still requires more spending → so you borrow more → and financing gets even more expensive. 🔄 That’s the spiral. $Oracle(ORCL)$ is now at the center of this debate. 🦔 Its 5-year CDS spread reportedly hit 230 bps, more than 4× the broader investment-grade index at 55 bps and dramatically higher than a year ago. At the same time, Oracle is committing massive amounts of capital to AI infrastructure. 💰 The key question isn’t simply whether AI demand is real. It’s whether the expected growth can generate enough cash flow to support the debt required to fund it. 📉 S&P’s BBB- rating leaves onl

The disruption story brewing in the market for the last three years really took hold when $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ( ▼ 3.34% ) Muse was released on September 8, 2026, and rapidly went to #1 in the app store. People were posting pictures of Muse buying clothes, re-booking flights, making calls to restaurants, and many other phenomenal use cases. I called it AI’s Mass Market Moment, and I think that’s true. I also think others will follow. Moats don’t last for long in AI. But we can see how we may interact with technology in the future, and it may not be through the apps we use today. This is creating both opportunities and risks for the companies we’re investing in. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ( ▲ 0.12% ) has t

🐯 Hey Tigers! Three very different setups I’m watching right now. 👀 🚗 $Uber(UBER)$ I think the “Uber gets disrupted by AI” story could eventually look pretty silly. The disruption isn’t showing up in the numbers yet, but more importantly, I’m not convinced the mechanism makes much sense. Imagine telling Muse: “I’ll pick up riders if you have some.” Someone nearby asks Muse for a ride, and Muse responds: “Travis is going to pick you up and take you to the bar. He seems nice, I’ve read his emails.” 😂 Could Uber’s bargaining power change over time? Absolutely. But does that mean a company sitting at the center of a massive transportation network suddenly becomes irrelevant? I’m not convinced. The bigger question is who actually benefits if rates go h

🚀 $On Holding AG(ONON)$ jumped more than 10% today, and there are three big reasons behind the move. 1️⃣ High teens revenue growth through 2029 Management is now guiding for high teens revenue growth through 2029. That gives investors a much clearer view of the company's longer-term growth trajectory, rather than forcing the market to focus only on the next quarter. 📈 2️⃣ 65% gross margins through 2029 This may be the more important number. Management sees gross margins holding around 65% through 2029, which would leave plenty of room for operating leverage as revenue scales. For a consumer brand still expanding globally, that kind of margin profile is a major part of the long-term thesis. 💰 3️⃣ A $1 billion buyback Then there is the headline-gra

At first glance, it looks like an obvious win. Today, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ essentially captures the full value of the advertising transaction. Advertisers pay Meta to connect products with consumers, while creators don't take a direct cut of that ad spend. For advertisers, it's effectively a customer acquisition cost. And as long as the economics work, Meta can keep pushing that CAC higher. 🔥 That's what makes the advertising business so powerful. But Muse could introduce a very different model. 🛒 The Muse model Instead of taking advertising dollars upfront, Meta could potentially take a small percentage of commerce transactions happening through Muse. Imagine a brand like Ridge is willing to spend $20 to acquire a customer buying an $80 w

Whether you’re investing in hyperscalers, neoclouds, semiconductors, or energy stocks, it’s all about AI. The AI buildout is driving growth, margin expansion, and higher stock prices. But I’ve been uncomfortable with the footing that trade is built on, given the debt even hyperscalers are taking out, rising interest rates, and lack of moats. So, I’ve focused on what I think are more durable businesses with a strategic advantage trading at a reasonable price. And the deals today are looking better than they have in years. More on that in a moment. Finding Value Themes are a big trend on the stock market today. Investors are chasing the story of the month and then moving on to the next story with little regard for whether a business is performing well or not. We saw this with nuclear and qua

If there’s no moat, who wins in AI? In a healthy supply chain, very few companies are making an outsized profit because high profits get competed away. Without some kind of moat or competitive advantage, there’s no pricing power or differentiation. There’s usually one power player, and everyone else is competing around the margins to gain a foothold as a commodity supplier, a niche modular supplier, a distributor, or play some other important, but often less profitable role. The iPhone is the perfect example of this. $Apple(AAPL)$ makes a gross margin of nearly 40% on its hardware, and the business overall has a 32.6% operating margin. $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ is far less profitable in smar

Here’s the part of the AI trade I think investors are underestimating. If you're long $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ and other AI infrastructure names, you're ultimately long the spending decisions of the biggest AI model companies. OpenAI and Anthropic matter enormously. They are among the companies driving the demand for compute, chips, power and data-center capacity. If their growth expectations or funding plans change, the impact can travel through the entire AI infrastructure chain. R