To The Moon

This has been a volatile week for the market. Between seasonality, a high $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (which, as I mentioned last weekend, it suggested a new spike, and weakness in Bitcoin (acting as a risk-off thermometer), we finally saw a bearish resolution. My notes last week regarding the VIX and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ were clear for paid subscribers: “The current price action doesn’t typically reflect a final ‘top’ in volatility. The current level of 17.7 for the VIX is not the cleanest condition for a sustained bull run; a new spike in volatility remains a viable risk.” Additionally, I cited: “For the SPX, a breach of the CWL of 6,901.8 (-0.4%) points to 6,810.6 (-1.8%).” The actual low of the week wa

Another week and software continues to grind lower. However, despite all of the carnage, there was another big winner this week! Fastly is up ~100% over the last week. The week prior, 8x8 had the big week (they were up ~70% in a week). Always an opportunity somewhere… I thought I was done talking about “is software dead” after the last couple weeks Clouded Judgement posts, but I just had more thoughts I wanted to share… I think two things are true. I think people are simultaneously under and over estimating the impact AI will have on the existing software complex. The difference is the timing. Overestimating in the short term, and underestimating in the long term. I see a lot of arguments claiming software is dead because everyone will just vibe code their own software. I don’t buy this at

After sending the SELL SIGNAL, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ back-tested the sell zone Today's rally was a confirmed bearish WXY, favoring Wave 3 progression targeting 6,720 → 6,700 with downside scope to 6,500. The bearish Daily FVG at 6,880–6,812 is added resistance if we see one last bounce before falling off a cliff. When this plays out, don't say I didn't warn you. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ Called for the 5th wave FLUSH AND the upside REVERSAL. That's PRECISION. Only Elliott Wave 2.0. 4 for 4 on ES today. Every call timestamped. ✅ 8:54 AM: 5th wave lower to 6820 — bottomed at 6808 ✅ 10:00 AM: Downside target hit, watch for a bounce — rallied immediately ✅ 11:10 AM: Rally to H4 FVG (6898-6962

1. Fundamentals vs Market Reaction AppLovin • AppLovin reported excellent Q4 results: revenue ~US$1.66 billion (+66 % year-on-year) and net income +84 % to ~US$1.10 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up ~82 %. These outcomes beat expectations and point to strong earnings quality and profit margin expansion.  • Management also guided for continued sequential revenue growth in Q1.  • Despite this, the shares fell sharply on earnings day. The decline reflects investor concern rather than lack of operational performance. Palantir • Recent price weakness in PLTR is part of a broader pullback in software and technology stocks. Reuters and market sources have noted Palantir among software names with significant drawdowns as sentiment deteriorated.  Implication: The divergence between st

This feels less like a random pullback and more like positioning stress surfacing. A few signals stand out: 1. Defensive leadership is broadening Staples hitting record highs while Utilities rally suggests investors are actively paying up for earnings stability. When capital rotates into Walmart and Coca-Cola on down days, it reflects preference for predictable cash flows over duration-sensitive growth. 2. AI risk unwind is accelerating A 510 bps drop in Goldman’s AI Risk Basket signals forced de-risking rather than selective trimming. When thematic baskets break repeatedly, it often indicates positioning was crowded. 3. Cyclical selectivity, not collapse Industrials, REITs and Energy seeing inflows suggests this is not a recession panic. It is more a quality and cash-flow rotation than a

Nvidia Earnings: Can a GB300 Boom and Early Rubin Launch Crush the Skeptics? Global AI chip leader $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   is set to release its FY26Q4 earnings after the bell on February 25. With the market currently buzzing with the "AI CapEx Bubble" narrative, this report is capturing worldwide attention. The core focus remains on the volume ramp-up of the GB300, mass production progress of Vera Rubin, and whether the company can provide strong guidance for growth in the coming quarter. FY26Q4 Core Financial Indicators – Revenue: Consensus estimate stands at $65.73 billion, representing a 67% increase YoY and 15% QoQ. The previous guidance was $65 billion. – Gross Margin: GAAP gross margin consensus is 74.8%, u

From my perspective, this swing from “AI-phoria” to “AI-phobia” feels more like a valuation reset than the end of the bull market. AI isn’t going away, but timelines are being repriced. The rotation into names like $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ & $Coca-Cola(KO)$ tells me the market is favoring certainty and cash flow over big narratives for now. That doesn’t mean tech is finished. What’s breaking is the belief that mega-cap tech can rise endlessly without scrutiny. Stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta now need to prove AI spending can translate into profits. I’ve trimmed some stretched positions, but I’m holding quality platforms

1. Strong Fundamental Turnaround & Record Growth CPS Technologies has delivered consecutive record revenue quarters, including ~$8.8 M in Q3 2025 and strong year-over-year growth across 2025, demonstrating sustained demand for its advanced materials and hermetic packaging solutions. Revenue is up sharply after recent capacity expansion, and the company has returned to positive operating and net income — a clear turnaround from prior losses. 2. Clear Competitive Edge in High-Value Materials CPSH’s core products — metal-matrix composites (MMC) such as aluminum silicon carbide and advanced packaging — serve mission-critical applications in defense, aerospace, energy, transportation and power electronics. These materials command higher technical barriers to entry than commodity metal produ

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  🚨❓📰 $AMZN Is the Bloodbath 🩸Over? Post-Earnings Reversal or Sustained Pressure? Amazon ended a 9-session decline, its longest since 2006, after an 18% slide erased $470 billion in market value! Q4’25 results: revenue $213 billion (+14% YoY, beat est.), AWS $35.6 billion (+24% YoY, fastest in 13 quarters), operating income $25 billion (beat est.), but EPS $1.95 (slight miss). Guidance flags $200 billion 2026 capex, primarily for AI infrastructure and AWS expansion, amid surging demand ~ backlog up 40% to $244 billion. Fundamentally, AWS reacceleration positions Amazon for mid-20s% growth, d

NVDA, AVGO See Heavy Put Selling as Traders Bet on a Range During Friday’s session, the options market saw sizable deep out-of-the-money put activity in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   and $Broadcom(AVGO)$  . The trades were executed largely at the bid and came against extremely low prior open interest, suggesting new positions were being established. Structurally, the activity points to a neutral-to-bullish strategy in a choppy market environment: selling far out-of-the-money puts to collect time premium, while retaining the ability to accumulate shares should an extreme pullback occur. Starting with AVGO, roughly 4,610 contracts of the March

🌟🌟🌟AI euphoria and AI phobia are just 2 costumes worn by the same actor - human emotion.  The underlying technology didn't suddenly become useless.  The demand for compute didn't evaporate overnight.  The memory supercycle didn't reverse itself because a few analysts got nervous. What changed was sentiment , not fundamentals. So what should investors do? Revisit your thesis, not the headlines.  If your conviction was built in real demand -data centers, chips, memory, infrastructure, enterprise adoption, then a sentiment swing is noise, not a thesis breaker. I will continue to dollar cost average into my favourite tech stocks $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ as this is the best time t

$USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ Continue bullish on rare earth stocks. Waiting for dip opportunities. 

Netflix – Panic or Opportunity? 🎬📉 Netflix just slid again and is hovering around the mid-$70s. Everyone’s asking the same thing: 👉 Wait for $60? 👉 Or is this where smart money quietly loads? Here’s the take many are missing 👇 ⸻ 😨 Why the market is scared There’s drama around the potential transaction with Warner Bros. Discovery. Add activist pressure from Ancora Capital and suddenly traders see uncertainty, headlines, delays. Short term = institutions hate not knowing. So they sell first. Ask questions later. ⸻ 🧠 But step back from the noise… This is still the king of global streaming 👑 ✔ Massive subscriber base ✔ Expanding advertising engine ✔ Proven ability to raise prices ✔ Content machine competitors struggle to match ✔ Consistent profitability (rare in media) Nothing about today’s re