My read: $80K is the line in the sand. Bull case • Reclaiming the 200-week MA is historically a major regime signal for Bitcoin. • Spot ETF flows via iShares Bitcoin Trust and broader institutional access have structurally deepened demand. • If macro liquidity stays supportive, $95K to $110K becomes reachable. Bear case • Crypto remains sensitive to rates, regulation and leverage flushes. • A break below $80K could quickly reopen $68K to $60K retest risk. My bias: higher probability that the bottom is in, but confirmation needs weekly closes above $80K. How to play: • Safer beta: iShares Bitcoin Trust • Higher torque: Coinbase / Circle Internet Group • Highest risk/highest upside: direct Bitcoin exposure My pick: IBIT for core, COIN for upside optionality. #Not proper financial advice.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ My view: I would not chase a 25% gap-up candle blindly, but I would not dismiss Super Micro Computer either. Bull case • AI server demand is very real. SMCI sits directly in the spending pipeline as a rack-scale integrator for NVIDIA and increasingly Advanced Micro Devices platforms. • Revenue more than doubled YoY to about US$10.24B, margins recovered sharply, and guidance was raised, showing operational momentum is strong. • With hyperscaler capex in “hyperdrive”, SMCI has tailwind visibility into 2027. Bear case • Governance discount remains. The company is not charged, but a co-founder and others were indicted over export-control violations, and an independent probe plus forensic review is ongoing.&
My read: the ceiling is not compute demand, it is supply chain throughput. For NVIDIA: • Hyperscalers are shifting from pilot spending to infrastructure-scale deployment. This is a multi-year order book, not a one-quarter burst. • Industrial AI demand is broadening beyond cloud. Energy, manufacturing, simulation and digital twins are now meaningful buyers, which widens NVIDIA’s TAM materially. • The true bottlenecks are HBM memory, advanced packaging (CoWoS), power, and datacentre buildouts, not customer appetite. NVIDIA roadmap: • Near term: $260 to $280 if next guidance lifts again • Bull case: $300+ becomes realistic if Rubin ramp + networking attach rates remain strong • Ceiling? Still unclear. Demand looks capacity-constrained, not end-market-constrained. For TSMC: • The U
This is a genuine regime shift story for Advanced Micro Devices, not merely a short squeeze. Key points: • Q1 revenue +38% YoY and data centre has become the main growth engine, confirming AI is now core, not optional. • Multi-cloud validation matters most. Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud expanding procurement de-risks concentration risk. • Next catalyst is execution. If MI300X and follow-on Instinct ramps keep accelerating, institutions will start valuing AMD more like an AI platform leader rather than a cyclical chip name. My technical roadmap: • $450: first magnet, likely near-term consolidation zone • $500: major psychological level, profit-taking likely • $550 to $625: possible 6 to 12 month bull case if guidance keeps surprising higher, cloud c
$Intel(INTC)$ Intel at US$110 feels like a narrative shift, not merely a short squeeze. Three things make this turnaround different: 1. Foundry credibility, especially if Apple is genuinely evaluating Intel as a manufacturing partner. That is a major trust signal. 2. Strategic ecosystem relevance, with involvement in Elon Musk’s Terafab consortium. 3. CPU execution improving, giving Intel a healthier core business while foundry scales. But caution: Foundry remains capital intensive, margins are still rebuilding, and execution risk is high. My take: • Below US$80 was deep value • US$110 is re-rating territory • US$140 to US$160 possible if foundry wins are confirmed Did investors sell too early? Only if Intel truly becomes a trusted foundry,
Micron Technology and SanDisk are riding a real structural cycle, not a typical memory bounce. AI servers are massively increasing HBM, DRAM and NAND intensity per rack, while supply remains tight. My view on the memory supercycle: • Still early-mid innings, not peak euphoria • 2027 supply response is the key risk • Until then, pricing power stays with suppliers Can Micron hit US$1,000? Possible, but aggressive. • Base case: US$750 to US$850 • Bull case: US$1,000+ if HBM shortages persist and margins keep expanding • Risk: Samsung / SK Hynix ramps faster than expected, compressing ASPs Bottom line: AI needs compute, but compute needs memory first. That makes memory the hottest picks-and-shovels trade in AI infrastructure today.
Advanced Micro Devices delivered a genuine blowout quarter, not a one-off headline beat. Data centre revenue rose 57% YoY to US$5.8B, with strong GPU and EPYC demand, and Q2 guidance also topped estimates. That suggests momentum is real, not accounting optics. Can AMD take share from Nvidia? Yes, but mainly in inference, not core frontier training. Nvidia’s moat remains software, ecosystem and scale. AMD’s opening is hyperscalers wanting a multi-vendor stack to reduce dependence on one supplier. Buy above US$400? At this level, easy money is gone. Valuation is rich. But if AMD executes, US$500 to US$550 is achievable. If growth cools, a sharp pullback is possible. My view: • Long term bullish • Near term overheated • Best strategy: buy dips, not chase spikes AMD is shifting from “alt
Advanced Micro Devices in the inference AI era is no longer just a GPU story. It is positioned across CPU + GPU + adaptive compute, which gives it broader exposure. My fair value view: • Base: US$450 to US$520 • Bull: US$575+ if MI-series inference demand scales hard • Bear: US$320 to US$360 on valuation reset CPU or memory? Near term: Memory has bigger upside, driven by HBM shortages and pricing power. Medium term: CPU may quietly compound better, because inference needs orchestration, data movement and efficient serving, not just accelerators. My view: Memory = faster upside CPU = steadier upside AMD = sweet spot, as it benefits from both. Bottom line: More AI capex likely lifts both, but memory runs hotter while CPU runs longer.
My take: Bitcoin holding US$80,000 is plausible, but Circle’s rally may be running ahead of fundamentals near term. Bitcoin at US$80K The level matters psychologically. ETF inflows remain supportive, and regulatory clarity is improving. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed US$80K, with momentum traders now watching whether it can hold above that zone for several sessions before calling it a true breakout. If risk sentiment improves further, US$85K to US$90K becomes feasible. Failure to hold US$80K could mean a fast retest lower. Circle Internet Group flywheel Bull case: 1. Higher USDC adoption from clearer rules 2. Higher reserve income while rates remain elevated 3. Network effects via payments, remittance, settlement rails But caution: The CLARITY Act is a double-edged sword. It improves legi
I think the market is still in the middle innings, not late innings, but the easy money phase is likely over. Why HBM can keep running 1. Structural undersupply Micron expects both DRAM and NAND supply to remain tight beyond 2026, while its HBM capacity is effectively sold out under long-term agreements. 2. HBM crowds out conventional DRAM HBM uses far more wafer capacity and advanced packaging. As Samsung, SK hynix and Micron Technology prioritise HBM, standard DRAM/NAND supply tightens, lifting pricing across the stack. This is why even storage names like SanDisk are rerating. 3. Inference is the second wave Training drove HBM first. Inference clusters, edge AI, AI PCs and memory-rich architectures could extend demand for years. Micron’s CEO calling AI “early innings” is prob