To The Moon

Why Everything In the Market Just Changed Debt will fuel the next phase of the market, for better or worse. The AI buildout has been driving the market in incredible ways over the past three years. Memory has exploded, fabs are going vertical, and equipment-makers are on a massive hot streak. S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ heat map over the past year. What’s unique about this moment is the scale of the value the market has put on all things AI. 45% of the S&P 500’s value is in AI-related stocks. And those stocks aren’t cheap. Over half of the S&P 500 trades for over 10x sales. This is something I’ve been concerned about for a while, but it’s taken a turn recently. Why? Debt at an unprecedented scale is now involved. More on that in a mom

The market continues showing weakness, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declining while the volatility index jumped 3%. The Magnificent Seven remain under pressure. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , one of the high-probability setups posted in the latest Weekly Compass, reached its bearish target in a clean move since the stock revisited Friday’s closing price at the open before initiating a -3% selloff to 367.9, our bearish target 🎯; the stock stayed below the invalidation level for the bearish setup studied. $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ The U.S. stock market experienced continued volatility on Tuesday, ultimately closing with a relatively strong decline after pulling back toward lower support levels during the session. Although the market closed lower, the current price action continues to reflect a constructive stabilization process within buying and selling flows, and overall movement remains within our previously anticipated range.

I think trading has become harder because markets can no longer rely on clear Fed guidance. Warsh’s approach introduces more uncertainty, which means investors will react more aggressively to economic data and policy signals. I’m also not convinced rate hikes are guaranteed. If oil prices continue falling and inflation cools, the market could reverse some of its current hawkish expectations. Energy prices will be one of the key indicators to watch. As for $SpaceX(SPCX)$ , I see this pullback as a healthy correction after a huge post-IPO rally rather than a broken story. I remain bullish on AI and innovation long term, but I would stay selective and manage risk carefully in this more volatile environment. Volatility often creates the best opportun

For long-term investors, I would be cautious about chasing either extreme. The key question is not whether the stock falls 10-20% more, but whether SpaceX can compound revenue and cash flow fast enough to justify its valuation over the next decade. If the thesis rests on Starlink, launch dominance, and Starship eventually opening new markets, a few weeks of post-IPO volatility is largely noise. Historically, many high-profile IPOs experience a cooling-off period after initial enthusiasm. Three down days alone do not necessarily signal a broken story. At the same time, early sell ratings and stretched expectations suggest risk remains elevated. My approach would be: Existing holders: consider trimming only if the position has become oversized. Interested buyers: scale in gradually rather th

I would lean towards "theme-driven bounce until proven otherwise." A 2.5% rebound in QQQ and a near-20% surge in leveraged semiconductor ETFs looks impressive, but the drivers were largely stock-specific and sentiment-driven rather than a broad improvement in macro conditions. If the market's concern yesterday was tighter monetary policy and higher-for-longer rates, that concern has not disappeared overnight. What is encouraging is that buyers remain eager to step into AI and semiconductor weakness. That suggests the AI capex narrative is still intact and institutions are not rushing for the exits. What is less encouraging is the market's tendency to rotate violently from panic to euphoria within 24 hours, which is characteristic of a volatile trading environment rather than a stable uptre

I would be very cautious about chasing after a move of that magnitude. Apple signalling higher memory costs is certainly bullish for memory suppliers because it suggests demand remains strong and pricing power has shifted back toward producers. That supports the long-term AI infrastructure story benefiting companies such as Micron Technology. However, when a stock has already risen thousands of percent, future returns become increasingly dependent on execution matching extremely high expectations. At that stage, even good news can become insufficient if it was already priced in. The distinction I would make is: Bullish on memory industry fundamentals: Yes. AI data centres, inference workloads, and high-bandwidth memory demand remain strong. Bullish on every memory stock at current prices: