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2025-04-05
The AI Bubble is bursting
The AI Bubble is bursting 👀And yes, AI is here to stay, and yes it will have a lasting and significant impact - especially in the longer run.But history shows time and again that downturns are not kind to emerging technologies... when confidence gets rattled, funding comes into question, and focus goes hard on every cost and only immediate revenue it's the projects and investments that can't give those questions a good answer that get cut first (or at least put in the freezer)Just part of the overall unintended consequences, and also a coming full circle of some wild market movements like that in the chart below. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced
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2025-04-05
Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples this week
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples as of today's market close.Median NTM multiple ended the day at 4.5x. This is lower than any point in 2022 and the lowest since 2016. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Veeva(VEEV)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $SailPoint Parent, LP(SAIL)$
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2025-04-05
SPX 5120 target reached
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ 5120 target reached✅Watch for a 4th wave bounce here to 5240-5280.Expecting that to be sold, but may wait until we get a green candle Monday to sell off for the 5th targeting 5000 or lower. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2506(NQmain)$ ImageThis was my analysis from yesterday：5400 target reached ✅ Now, SPX is primed to keep cratering in the ultra-bearish 3rd wave, with a target of 5300 on the horizon.Watch f
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2025-04-05
Fear & Greed Index has been in “Extreme Fear” for SPX correction
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index has been in “Extreme Fear” for the entirety of this -17% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ correction. It was at Extreme Fear 1M ago (11), and the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ is down -15% over the last month. This is not a good indicator of much. Positioning tells you all you need to know about sentiment (fear and greed).ImageWe are currently 32 trading days into this SPX correction. The median non-recessionary SPX correction lasts 60 days. The median recessionary SPX correction lasts 282 days, almost 5x as long.ImageRetail investors bought $4.7 bln in stocks on thursday, largest level over the past decadeNo panic!Open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming
14.02K
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2025-04-04
Magnificent 7, still falling on Fri (04 Apr) ?
By now everyone would have been fully aware of US market Thu, 03 Apr 2025 catastrophic fall, the biggest slide in US equities in 5 years, on fears that Trump’s new tariff plans will: Trigger a global trade war. Drag US economy into recession. By the time, 4pm came around - each composite index was progressively worse than the one before: DJIA: -3.98% (-1,679.39 to 40,545.93). S&P 500: -4.84% (-274.45 to 5,396.52). Down more than -10% from its February all-time high. Nasdaq: -5.97% (-1,050.44 to 16,550.61). Stocks lost roughly $3.1 trillion in market value, their largest one-day decline since March 2020. Stock-index futures drifted lower on Thursday evening as well. Magnificent 7 - Not looking good. THe Mag 7 were not spare deither. Thursday’s sell-off hit megacap technology stocks espe
TOPMortimer Arthur: Meta is dead everybody said when Meta went to $98 during Covid. Then it went to $740 minting new millionaires lol. Same thing will happen here. The lower it goes the more I’ll BUY!
10.49K
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2025-04-04
What are US Economic reports, telling us ?
US market on Thu, 03 April 2025 came crashing down hard for the first time in the longest time, as a result of the mad hatter Trump provoked a global trade war by raising tariffs worldwide. US market reacted “decisively” by plunging into the abyss without hesitation. (see below) While negative sentiments swept through the market on Thursday, US economic reports continued to be released as planned. On Thursday, the two reports released were : US weekly jobless claims for week ending 29 Mar 2025. ISM Service purchasing manager index (PMI) for March 2025. US weekly initial jobless claims US Weekly Jobless claims. For week ended 29 March, US Labour Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by -6,000 claims to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 from last week’s data of 22
TOPTrump's Tariffs will cost Amazon Many $Billions. Who is Trump trying to get even with?
4.92K
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2025-04-04
Weekly | Is WOW' Strong Growth and Low Valuation a Sign of Future Upside?
As of the close on Friday, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 7667.8 on Friday, down 3.94% in the past 5 days.1. $COLES GROUP LTD(COL.AU)$ +7.26%Coles Group received orders of more than A$525m, including A$65m JLM demand, for its A$300m 7.5Y fixed-rate senior unsecured note, according to RBC Capital Markets. Optimism in the options market suggests investors are bullish on the upside.2. $WOOLWORTHS GROUP LTD(WOW.AU)$ +4.53%Woolworths managed to grow sales in every single division in the first half of FY25. It should be able to report stronger growth in the HY26 result and FY26 result.There are a number of growth areas within the business, helping offset som
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2025-04-03
Weekly | Did HK Market Rally Halt by Shock Setback?
This week, Hong Kong stocks underperformed, with the $HSI(HSI)$ falling 2.46%.Several negative news events contributed to this slump:1.Robot Investment PullbackFamous investor Zhu Xiaohu announced he is exiting investments in humanoid robots due to unclear commercialization, shaking up the industry and cooling tech stock hype.2.Xiaomi’s Tragic IncidentOn Tuesday, a deadly crash involving the $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ SU7 raised doubts about the company’s autonomous driving features. Three people died, and Xiaomi faced public backlash, resulting in two consecutive days of sharp stock price declines.3.Trump’s Tariff OrdersOn Thursday, President Trump signed two executive orders imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on 40+
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2025-04-04
S&P 500 Teeters on the Edge: Tariff Fallout, NFP Data, and the Looming Risk of a Deeper Correction
April 4, 2025 – The S&P 500 ( $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ) is at a critical juncture, reeling from a tariff-driven selloff that has already shaved 2.84% off the index, closing at 5394.52 on Thursday, April 3. This sharp decline—part of a broader 4.8% drop, marking the index’s worst single-day performance since June 2020—comes on the heels of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement, which introduced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries, effective April 5. As markets brace for the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due today at 8:30 AM EDT, the stakes couldn’t be higher. A disappointing NFP print, combined with the tariff shock, could push the S&P 500 into a deeper correction, heightening the risk
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2025-04-04
Markets in Shock: Trump Tariffs Unleash 2025’s First True Meltdown
Here's a concise Market Intelligence Brief synthesizing the core themes from today’s events and Thursday, April 3, 2025 - Market Recap & Macro Pulse 🔻 Equities: Deepest Selloff Since 2020 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -4.8% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -6.0% Dow: -4.0% (-1,679 pts) Market cap wiped: ~$3.1 trillion VIX: Elevated, stuck in “no-man’s-land” (uncertainty, but not peak fear) The tariff barrage has upended market assumptions, pricing in a materially higher recession probability. Analysts and traders, caught flat-footed by the scale of the action, scrambled to reprice risk across all sectors. Fair value on the S&P 500 is estimated near 4,900—but that’s assuming no further shocks. With market structure frag
TOPI never seen stocks drop so fast before this dropped hard then covid time, with no plan of stopping
5.32K
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2025-04-04
Panic Selloff Begins? Will the Recession Trade Really Happen?
The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 8 yesterday, with its lowest point in May 2022 reaching 3. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies lost a combined $2.4 trillion in market value during Thursday’s selloff on Wall Street, marking their biggest one-day loss since March 16, 2020, when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sent global markets into a tailspin.Following the tariff storm yesterday, the market now faces the challenge of March’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and unemployment rate today.The market expects no major surprises in the March jobs report, forecasting 140,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rising 4% YoY, all within long-term trends. However, mass layoffs at DOGE could introduce uncertaint
TOPThe Fear and Greed Index dropping to 8 is a strong indicator of extreme panic. While the market is bracing for the March jobs report, history shows that extreme fear often marks the start of opportunity. I’m watching the data, but I also believe great entries rarely feel comfortable. Nvidia hitting $100 caught my attention. It’s down 33% from recent highs, and some are questioning if the semiconductor rally is over. But we've seen this before—back in 2021, Nvidia dropped over 60% before rebounding. I still believe in its long-term role in AI and chips, so I see this as a chance to start accumulating, even if more volatility comes. There’s no doubt recession risks are rising, and the short-term outlook is shaky. But whether it’s a trading recession or a real one, I’d rather position myself early than wait for perfect clarity. Fear creates opportunity—especially for those thinking long term. @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerGPT @Tiger_SG
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2025-04-04
$2.8 trillion was wiped from the U.S. stock market
1.$2.8 trillion was wiped from the U.S. stock market today. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Watching these keys：• The Magnificent Seven breakdown• Where I see generational buy zones• The exact levels I’m watching• How I’m navigating this correctionThis could be the opportunity of the decade.Watch before the dust settles.PS：One of my favorite moments is when there’s blood in the market.Not because of the chaos—because of the clarity.This is when the noise fa
2.40K
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2025-04-04
10 examples why US tariffs shield domestic industries from foreign competition
Everyone hates tariffs but President Trump likes them: 10 examples why tariffs shield domestic industries from foreign competition and encouraging consumers to buy domestically produced items:Light Trucks: Since 1964, a 25% tariff, known as the "Chicken Tax," has been imposed on imported light trucks to protect domestic automakers. Washing Machines: In 2018, tariffs starting at 20% were placed on imported washing machines to support U.S. manufacturers like $Whirlpool(WHR)$ . Solar Panels: Also in 2018, a 30% tariff was imposed on imported solar panels to promote domestic production. Steel Products: A 25% tariff on imported steel has been applied to support the U.S. steel industry, affecting various consumer goods made from steel. Aluminum Product
7.25K
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2025-04-04
Here's Why NVDA and SMCI Looks Cheap Now But Not A Good Time To Buy Now.
We are seeing semiconductors name like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ trading near their previous lows when we experienced sharp selloff. The last event was during the August and September 2024 period, which we saw a recovery small rally after these sharp selloff. So this current low price target of these two semiconductor stocks might tempt investors to buy the dip, but I think we need to be aware of more pain as AI revolution would be paused due to tariff concerns as corporations might reduce their budget spending. VIX At Dangerous Level (> 30) We are seeing the VIX above the 30 level, when the VIX (Volatility Index) rises above 30, it generally indicates a period of heightened m
TOPAll stocks will continue to decline until Donald gets the interest rates lowered. SMCI will be a steal of a stock a week before earnings call. I am holding out for a couple more weeks for a few more shake downs before I jump in.
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2025-04-04
JPOW's Speech May Impact Market, $540 Key for 20% Correction
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ JPOW speech on economy is April 4th, 2025. His speech can help fill a massive gap on this daily chart.But, fundamentally once it breaks this level $540 then next levels on this chart is now $520 and then $500.I'll alert where I believe the exact bottom will be and it will be in April.20% correction from all time highs takes it under $500. This is where President Trump threshold for pain is. Q1 GDP is negative 🩸ImageOpen a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Other helpful links:💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to
1.36K
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2025-04-04
Sector & Indices ETFs Strength Trend Meter Bar Chart
1.Sector ETFs Strength Trend Meter Bar Chart $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ $Health Care Select S
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2025-04-04
Mega & Large Cap Companies Strength Trend Meter Bar Chart
1.Mega Cap Companies Strength Trend Meter Bar Chart $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $SHELL PLC SPON ADS EACH REPR 2 ORD SHS(SHEL)$ $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ $Chevron(CVX)$ $GE Aerospace(GE)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Bank of America(BAC)$ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$
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2025-04-04
SPY Breached the lower Bollinger Band significantly.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : Breached the lower Bollinger Band significantly. Given the bearish candle and volume validation, a substantial bounce is unlikely. However, a return to the band's range is expected. This is a bear market, but same as bull markets price action experiences technical resets.One of the bear market rallies of 2025 will come in May, when the FED will cut rates. Something short lived as in 2022. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ImageOpen a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stoc
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2025-04-04
To those of you buying the dip
To those of you buying the dip:Remember, it takes a long time for the economy to stabilize and the market to bottom during a “normal” recession.Dot com: S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ peaked in early 2020 and didn’t bottom until late 2022.Great Recession: Peak in early 2007. Bottom in March 2009.It's OK to fail.We don't talk about this enough.Risks entail upside.It also involves downside risk.Most businesses fail.That doesn't mean the founders are failures.Embrace failure when it arrives.Learn from it.And try again. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$