To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ Back at the start of the year I shared what I thought would be the 10 most important charts to watch for global multi-asset investors in the year ahead. In this note I have updated the charts +provided fresh comments. 1. From Tightening to Tailwinds: despite all the geopolitical events this year, global growth has proven remarkab

This week we’re looking at how the global capex boom is driving bond yields higher (+clues on the next steps for bonds). The chart below shows the 5-year annualized growth of Capital Expenditures by global listed companies vs the global average 10-year government bond yield. There is a strong link between the two, and I’ll explain why. But first, what’s up with that big disconnect in 2007-2011? (because sometimes the exception helps explain the rule…) That particular period saw a couple of things happen: first, capex during that period was heavily driven by the commodity sectors, and commodity prices were surging (e.g. crude oil prices going up 2-3x); which put the brakes on growth —just as central banks had aggressively tightened monetary policy… and then of course came the global financi

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Tech stock ETF flows recently reached record highs. Foreign flows into US stocks are surging (record highs). CEO confidence, ISM PMIs, and freight data are turning up. Margin debt indicators are sounding a clear risk warning signal. Much of the index are heading into a buyback blackout window. Overall, there is a lot of good news on the earnings and ec

Global ex-US Equities $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ I wanted to share this topic from a recent Weekly Macro Themes report because it answers a few key questions, raises a couple more, and helps put into context today’s Fed rate hike decision. Firstly, on that note, in case you missed it, the US Federal Reserve just hiked rates +25bps to 4% — as I noted last week, this is exactly what they should be doing, and we probably will see m

Here’s how I’m currently seeing Macro & Markets: 🌎 Global ex-US Equities Still bullish on global ex-US equities, both outright and relative to the US. Valuations remain attractive, technicals are constructive, and the macro backdrop is supportive. Global equity gains have also started to broaden beyond the US, with Asia Pacific among the stronger regions recently. 🇺🇸 US Small Caps I remain bullish on US small caps. The valuation gap versus large caps and bonds remains attractive, while macro fundamentals are improving. Positioning and sentiment also remain relatively contrarian, which creates an interesting setup if the technical picture continues to improve. ⚖️ Global / Small / Value vs US / Large / Growth This is becoming one of the more interesting relative-value themes. I continue

Despite all that’s gone on this year we have actually seen quite a significant reacceleration in the global economy. Notably this has been particularly pronounced in the real-world cyclical parts of the economy (manufacturing, trade, fixed asset investment). That’s important because it’s those sectors that have the most direct impact on commodity prices. And it’s among the reasons (including geopolitics and supply constraints) we’ve seen such enduring and broad-based strength in commodities this year. It’s also been a key driver of upward pressure on inflation, and along with stronger growth has contributed to the global policy pivot to interest rate hikes that is currently underway (with the Fed likely joining the pivot party soon). This speaks to the highly cyclical nature of commodities

I wanted to share this topic from a recent Weekly Macro Themes report because things are getting interesting in this overlooked corner of global markets. But also this issue (upside risk in agricultural commodities) is interesting both from a position taking standpoint — and from a macro standpoint. Because upside in agri commodity prices will directly and acutely affect consumer prices aka inflation …which is probably one of the biggest macro issues right now (particularly given the impact on policymaking and bond markets). So I hope you find this rare dive into agri commodities interesting. First up is the Main Page for this topic, all topics in my weekly report take this format: an overall assessment (summing up the outlook), risks against the view, catalysts to reinforce the view, a ke

FOMC week is here, and the latest $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ChartStorm is flashing more warning signs than the headline index suggests. The key takeaway is simple: ⚠️ Breadth is deteriorating ⚠️ Correlations are becoming less comfortable ⚠️ Corporate bonds are sending caution signals ⚠️ Volatility is picking up ⚠️ Liquidity could become a headwind ⚠️ Growth has started losing momentum vs. value ⚠️ Semiconductors are stalling That combination matters. $SPX can still hold up while fewer stocks carry more of the index. But when breadth keeps weakening, leadership becomes narrower and the market becomes more vulnerable to a catalyst. And this week has one. 🏦 The Fed meets Sept. 15–16. Markets are now heavily pricing a rate hike after stronge

The Fed may have more work to do. Based on the usual relationship between inflation expectations and the labor market, the fed funds rate would be closer to 5% right now. That’s more than 100 bps above the current 3.75% level. 👀 The bigger issue is what’s happening underneath the surface. 🔥 Inflation expectations have settled into a higher range. 💼 The labor market is heating back up and remains relatively tight. Put those two pieces together and the current policy rate starts looking less restrictive than it appears. The Fed’s recent hesitation may have bought some time, but the data is pushing the other way. Recent inflation data has already increased market expectations for a hike, while stronger employment data has added more pressure. 📊 The chart tells the story clearly. If inflation

The charts are starting to tell a slightly different story. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is still near the highs, but the ride is getting less smooth. And some of the warning signs are showing up outside equities. Here are my biggest takeaways this week: 1️⃣ The S&P 500 is starting to wobble The trend hasn’t broken, but momentum is becoming less convincing. After such a strong run, even a modest pullback can expose how crowded positioning has become. 2️⃣ September weakness is showing up on schedule Seasonality is working against the bulls. September has historically been one of the weakest months for U.S. equities, so the timing of this slowdown isn’t exactly surprising. But seasonality alone isn't a short thesis. 3️⃣ Credit markets are starting to whi