To The Moon

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 26 April 2026 This week: technical check, seasonality snippets, fund flows, semiconductors, market froth at the top, cyclicals, global growth, emerging market equities... Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: There’s a minor bearish breadth divergence on the S&P500. Seasonality is also moving into a weaker period. (albeit seasonality tends to be better when stocks are up YTD) Semis are surging, chalking up multiple records and extremes. Cyclicals vs defensives are confirming the bullish macro picture. Overall, there’s a couple of short-term technical risk flags to note (especially with geopolitics simmering and central banks in the wings) and plenty of pockets of froth still bubbling away in markets. But there’s also some bright spots (e.g. e

Weekly Macro Themes Report (preview) - China, Commodities, Software, Bitcoin Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report: 1. China: remain bullish Chinese stocks given cheap/reasonable valuations, improving technicals, nascent cyclical upturn, and tentative turning point in the property market downturn. 2. Commodities: switch back to neutral from previous bullish given technical risk flags, valuations becoming slightly expensive, and shifts in sentiment/flows/positioning. 3. Software: bullish software sector given big reset in absolute and relative valuations, excess pessimism, and very promising technicals (with clearly defined risk triggers). 4. Bitcoin: bullish bitcoin (vs US$) given compelling bullish technicals, reset in sentiment/positioning, bullish m

This chart tracks what have been two of the biggest weak spots in markets. (and is interesting for 2 key reasons) First: both Bitcoin and Software stocks have stopped going down (and actually are starting to look very promising from a technical standpoint) — i.e. the weak spots are no longer getting weaker. That’s important because in markets weakness has a habit of spreading. But also, further upside in these two (which is looking likely) will help rebuild sentiment and reinforce the bullish outlook for stocks in general. Which brings me to the second point… Second: both boast a bullish tactical outlook (as I just outlined in my latest Weekly Macro Themes report) Basically, we’ve seen a major reset in price (software down more than -35%, bitcoin off almost -50%) and a big washout in senti

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 19 April 2026 Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 has bounced back & onto new all-time highs. Q1 saw a major cleanout in positioning across participants. Two major weak spots (Bitcoin & Software) are looking better. Global equity technicals look bullish following “healthy correction”. Retail allocations to cash remain around the bottom end of the range. Overall, following what now looks to be a “healthy correction” + a big Q1 clean out in positioning + positive technical developments — it looks like the path of least resistance is higher from here. Mission Accomplished: that looks like a decisive victory. One thing I think that stands out through this whole episode is how despite consensus bullish sentiment, crowded

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 12 April 2026 Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has rebounded to a key overhead resistance zone. Semiconductors $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ meanwhile are already out to new all-time highs. Tech stocks have seen a reset comparable to that of April 2025. The tech sector is driving overall profit margins to record highs. Tech stock valuations are still elevated (raising some questions). Overall, it’s been a textbook rally from oversold conditions. The next steps will be key as overhead resistance looms (with risk shadows lingering in the background vs tech strength stirring). 1. Technical Check bouncing from oversold condit

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Investor Sentiment is down, Economic Sentiment is up. Markets appear to be following the Trump Weave. Oil Shock Analogs highlight the worst case. Tech sentiment is deeply oversold. Global equities are up from oversold +positive April seasonality. Overall, there seems to be a growing body of evidence for a rebound. 1. Sentiment Survey Composite the comb

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. From Tightening to Tailwinds: the macro data pulse is looking so-far-so-good despite all the bad news and market volatility, and the key reason is all the monetary easing tailwinds from 2024/25 are having their maximum impact right now. So as far as I can tell, for now, the global economic reacceleration theme remains on-track. “the biggest story in macro of the 2020’s ech

Zooming out from the day-to-day developments, it’s useful to keep in mind the market cycle conceptual model. The reason we want to respect risk in this type of juncture is that the stockmarket is stumbling and rolling over from expensive levels — this is the zone of maximum risk. It’s entirely possible that we end up getting enough of a reset (in sentiment, valuations, positioning, and maybe even policy too) to engineer a short/sharp correction and resumption of the bull market… but given the background setup described and what we understand about market cycles, it would pay to be pragmatic about things (balancing the desire for maximum gains from participating in rebounds vs diversification and defense against the potential for further downside). For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA t

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ This week’s chart presents an unusual sentiment indicator which serves a specific purpose to a specific type of market participant. This composite indicator takes into account sentiment readings from surveys + market metrics: the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (volatility/fear gauge) and the forward PE ratio (being ultimately a measure of investor confidence). The inputs are also smoothed so that it provides the most useful signal to longer-term active investors who are less fixated on the day-to-day news/noise. We’ve seen a significant reset in this indicator already. This says we are close to a major market bottom. However we still need to respect risk. The direction of travel (bearish

Global policy remains supportive amid subdued inflation and a gradual economic recovery, but market signals are becoming more mixed. The US Stock/Bond Ratio is rolling over from stretched levels, pointing to rising caution, while relative opportunities are emerging outside U.S. large-cap growth. Investors are increasingly balancing supportive macro conditions against weakening technicals and shifting global leadership. Monetary Policy Pulse: given lack of underlying inflation pressures, steady but nascent global economic recovery; expect policy on hold globally (and to remain supportive for risk assets, growth). US Stock/Bond Ratio: the stock/bond ratio is rolling over from stretched levels (stretched valuations, positioning, and technicals), history suggests caution (but recession risk is