To The Moon

As I shared with clients earlier this week, there’s a highly important distinction to make when it comes to the moves in the stock/bond ratio —this is a US thing.If you look at global markets, the trend we see in emerging markets and developed markets ex-US is that the stock/bond ratio is actually moving higher. Europe and China are stimulating their economies and turning up out of slowdown, things are really changing in Japan, and even LatAm is looking good —much of the world’s stockmarkets are going up and enjoying a weaker USD and rotation flows out of US into global markets.Not only does this help frame what is going on in the US with the turn in the stock/bond ratio, but it also hammers on the global vs US rotation theme. As alluded to above I think we are early on both of these major

The US stock/bond ratio has rolled over from extraordinary price levels + excessive relative optimism in stocks vs bonds + extended positioning + extreme expensive valuations for stocks (both absolute and relative to bonds).Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is about as unfavorable as it gets for the stock/bond ratio; heightened uncertainty, reform-like policy moves, and declining economic confidence makes the risk of recession a real possibility (and the Treasury Secretary is basically telling us this). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ The fiscal contraction aspect is also a double whammy in that it is a he

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Insiders increasing their purchases signal confidence, suggesting the recent rebound may mark a bottom. This metric is set to hit its highest level since June, nearing its historical average for SPY. Obviously, insiders they dont know anything about the company. You do! You're waiting for the bottom to get in.ImageSooner you UNDERSTAND and live by this motto in trading, sooner you'll be consistent and profitableTrading is boring, you have to wait around for the set-up to form, then you wait around for the move to happen, then you wait for the next trade to happen before you take another one.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ can easily drop another 5%-10% from $565 after FOMC on March 19.Here's 4 things that will impact the course of history 🧵1. GDP is for Q1 is estimated to be NEGATIVE. I don't think SPY has properly priced this in. and JPOW will address this on Wednesday. If he says, the economy is slowing down and we are seeing deterioration, SPY wont like it all. The Q&A session at FOMC will determine if there will be BLOOD on the streets this week back down under $550.2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ & $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ displayed yesterday bearish candles on the 4H chart. Today, they show indecision again. Although the candle isn't fully bullish, and thus a bounce is less probable, the potential remains. Risk management is essential: $5,616 and $476.7 respectively are today's resistances that were breached without conviction.ImageSPX: The 4-hour chart accurately reflected anticipated the red day following the shooting star highlighted yesterday. The key level is $5,616, which served as support today, coinciding with the 5DMA. Tomorrow will be crucial: Break or a bounce?Image