To The Moon

When everyone disagrees, I start paying closer attention There is something oddly comforting about consensus. Markets love neat stories, tidy valuations and analyst price targets that huddle together like penguins in a snowstorm. SanDisk is offering none of that. Instead, it has become one of the market's biggest arguments. Within days, one major analyst dramatically lifted their price target by around 76%, while others remained considerably more cautious. Depending on whose spreadsheet I open, SanDisk is either one of the most compelling AI infrastructure investments available or an expensive memory manufacturer riding the latest technology wave before gravity inevitably returns. That disagreement, rather than the share price itself, is what makes SanDisk fascinating today. Wall Street ag

Wall Street Is Measuring the Wrong Turnaround I think Wall Street is asking the wrong question about $Nike(NKE)$. Investors remain fixated on quarterly earnings, margins and revenue beats, yet this is no longer a conventional earnings story. It is a distribution story. That distinction matters. A company can repair a balance sheet in months, but rebuilding an ecosystem of retailers, athletes and consumers after years of strategic missteps is far slower. Trust is not reported every quarter, yet it often determines whether future earnings recover at all. Nike's share price, hovering around levels last seen more than a decade ago, reflects widespread scepticism that the turnaround will succeed. I believe the market is using a scorecard that captures t

The Market Is Pricing Earnings. I Think Washington Is Pricing Permission. For years, investing in UnitedHealth felt almost reassuringly straightforward. The company combined scale, disciplined execution and an unmatched healthcare ecosystem into a machine that compounded earnings with remarkable consistency. Investors debated medical cost trends, margins and valuation multiples, but rarely questioned whether the business model itself would remain politically acceptable. That assumption deserves far more scrutiny today. Healthcare still works. Permission is becoming the scarce asset I think the real investment debate has quietly migrated from earnings power to something much harder to model: political licence. Investors continue to ask how quickly UnitedHealth can restore profitability afte

When Efficiency Stops Looking Like Growth For years, Block seemed to be starring in two entirely different films. In one, it was an innovative fintech reshaping commerce through Square and Cash App. In the other, it was an unfocused pandemic darling distracted by Bitcoin, the costly Afterpay acquisition and the unconventional leadership of Jack Dorsey. Neither story quite reflected what was quietly happening beneath the surface. To me, Block has evolved into something that the market still struggles to recognise. Rather than being primarily a payments company, it is steadily becoming an efficiency platform whose economics improve almost invisibly. That distinction matters because invisible competitive advantages rarely command premium valuations until they have already compounded for years

Why I Think Walmart’s Real Product Is the Customer Investors have become fascinated by Walmart’s advertising business. Every earnings season seems to produce another discussion about retail media, digital ads and whether Walmart Connect can become the next great profit engine. I think the market is staring at the wrong shelf. Advertising matters, but it is merely one expression of a much larger advantage. Walmart’s true asset is its ability to earn multiple streams of income from a single customer interaction. A family that enters a store to buy milk can also become a marketplace customer, a Walmart+ subscriber, a delivery user and an advertising target, all before the trolley reaches the car park. The shopping trolley is quietly becoming a multi-product platform. One trolley. Several busi

The Balance Sheet Behind the Fairy Tale For years, investors have treated Disney as though streaming was the only story worth following. I think that misses the bigger plot entirely. The real investment case no longer revolves around whether Disney+ can make money — it already has. Instead, I believe Disney's future valuation depends on something far less glamorous but infinitely more important: how management allocates capital. That may not inspire a theme park ride, but it is precisely how shareholder wealth is created. At roughly US$102 per share, Disney trades on a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of around 16 and a forward multiple below 14. Those are hardly the valuations of a company that owns some of the world's most valuable intellectual property. Yet the market continues to treat

The Fleet That Never Stops Paying Most investors still value ASML by asking a simple question: how many EUV machines will it ship next quarter? I think they are asking the wrong question. The real investment story begins after those machines leave the factory. Every lithography system entering production quietly expands an installed ecosystem requiring software upgrades, field servicing, productivity enhancements and process optimisation throughout its working life. Rather than behaving like a conventional capital equipment manufacturer, ASML is increasingly resembling the owner of an industrial platform whose economics improve with age. Gravity rarely announces itself until escape becomes impossible Platforms compound differently from products. That distinction matters because Wall Street

Most investors still analyse Starbucks as though it earns its living by selling lattes one cup at a time. I think that framework is becoming outdated. While near-term earnings remain under pressure from higher labour costs and ongoing operational investment, Starbucks is reshaping itself into something more valuable: a global consumer platform that increasingly resembles a royalty business. The market appears fixated on quarterly operating margins, but I believe the bigger story is that Starbucks’ economic model is becoming less dependent on store ownership and more reliant on monetising its brand, digital ecosystem and expanding licensed footprint. That distinction matters because businesses that earn royalties rather than directly operating every location tend to generate structurally hi

The Maturity Wall Nobody Wants to Price Most investors analyse Strategy through the lens of Bitcoin. They debate adoption curves, treasury accumulation and where the cryptocurrency might trade next year. I increasingly think that misses the more interesting question. The real investment debate is not whether Bitcoin rises or falls. It is whether Strategy’s capital structure can continue functioning if capital markets become less accommodating. Strategy has evolved into something unique: a company whose future is increasingly determined by liability management rather than software growth. The market remains obsessed with the asset side of the balance sheet. I am far more interested in the liabilities. The premium powers more than most investors realise That is where the next major investmen

For most of its history, Adobe has enjoyed one of the software industry's simplest and most profitable economic models: sell creative seats to designers, marketers, photographers and enterprises, then collect recurring subscription revenue. Investors understood it, loved it, and rewarded it accordingly. Today, however, I think the market is analysing Adobe as though that model remains intact. The numbers suggest otherwise. What I see is a company attempting a far more ambitious transformation—one that could ultimately make Creative Cloud subscriptions look like a relatively small piece of a much larger content-production ecosystem. The irony is that Adobe's share price collapse may be obscuring the very opportunity management is trying to create. Investors see software. Adobe may be buildi