Positive news from OpenAI, with monthly growth rate recovering by 10%, directly ignited a short squeeze on Monday, crushing the bears. However, subsequent market action will likely continue with sector rotation. $NVDA$ Both large bullish and bearish single-leg orders appeared (not a spread): $NVDA 20260220 175.0 PUT$ , 64,000 contracts opened. $NVDA 20260220 207.5 CALL$ , 78,000 contracts opened. Based on the overall opening activity, the price is highly likely to continue oscillating within the large 170-190 range from this week into next. Therefore, the 207.5 call is quite intriguing; currently, it seems difficult for the price to break above 200 even

$TSLA$ Key News: Cybercab autonomous electric vehicle enters mass production at the Texas factory, aiming to increase utilization to 50-60 hours per week. Energy segment emerges as a new growth driver; Shanghai energy storage factory operational; $200 billion budgeted for AI and Energy sectors in 2026. FSD advances localized training in China, though constrained by regulations, using existing data for tuning. Options Analysis: Current Implied Volatility (IV) is relatively high, indicating market expectation for significant price movement. Overall sentiment leans bullish. This Week (2/13): Expected to swing widely within $400 - $430. Next Week (2/20): The range may widen to $395 - $440. Key Support: $400 - $405. This interval has highly concentrated put option (PUT) open interest, forming a

Checked the 300k contract VIX 35 call position $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$ , it's still open, suggesting the correction is not yet over. $NVDA$ Next week continues the search for a bottom. A large bearish order opened: the weekly expiry 157.5 put $NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT$ , with 60,000 contracts for a total notional of over $6 million. Therefore, tonight's rally is more suitable for selling calls. Consider strikes above 190: $NVDA 20260213 190.0 CALL$  I noticed institutions opened a 177.5–182.5 call spread for next week $NVDA 20

You probably remember the 300k contract VIX call orders we mentioned a couple of days ago: $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$  $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$ . Unexpectedly, the sell-off has begun so quickly. Currently, it looks like a bottom will be formed before mid-March, presenting a great buying opportunity at that time. $NVDA$ Regarding this collective pullback in the AI sector, there's not much to elaborate on. The fact that there are fewer investable assets in the market is not a good sign. Looking back to 2025, it was a vibrant market where one could pick winners with ease—that was the best environment, not just for investing but for AI development itself. Althou

$VIX$ Another massive bullish volatility order has appeared. The March 18th expiry 35 call $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$  traded 300,000 contracts for a total notional value of over $20 million. Opened around the same time was the February 18th expiry 35 call $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$ , trading 250,000 contracts. Based on SPY's option activity, the probability of a major decline this week seems low. However, historical patterns suggest a non-negligible chance of a correction starting in late February. $GOOGL$ Google now enjoys the privilege of Monday & Wednesday weekly expiry options, though none expire on its actual earnings day. As the current undisputed l

$AAPL$ Apple has seen a large bullish call order. The May 15th expiry 285 call $AAPL 20260515 285.0 CALL$  had 69,000 contracts opened, with a total notional value of approximately $34+ million. Although I believe Apple's performance this year may still be weighed down by high memory prices, this doesn't prevent the market and large investors from perceiving a potential bottom. With earnings this week, selling the 250 put is an option: $AAPL 20260130 250.0 PUT$ . $FXI$ Regarding the large bearish China ETF orders, I discovered someone shared my analysis in a group, causing some panic. However, a massive, deep out-of-the-money bearish order like

$NVDA$ This week marks the launch of Monday and Wednesday weekly expiry options. For these new short-dated contracts, we'll observe for a week before formulating strategies. Overall, NVDA's price is expected to remain below 195 this week. Institutions continue selling the 195 call $NVDA 20260206 195.0 CALL$ , hedged by buying the 200 call $NVDA 20260206 200.0 CALL$ . The lower bound is more nuanced. 170 remains a potential target, but stability around 190 cannot be ruled out. Analyzing open interest for the Feb 2nd and Feb 4th expiries suggests the possibility of a minor pullback in NVDA following earnings from AMD or Google. $AMD$ The rise of agentic

$GLD$ Today, scanning large orders, I was startled to see a massive call buy on the Gold ETF: $GLD 20260213 505.0 CALL$ , with 80,000 contracts traded for a total notional value of $71.33 million. Later, I discovered an equally large sell call order. Placed simultaneously, they likely constitute a paired, combination order—specifically, a Bear Call Spread: Sell Call $GLD 20260213 495.0 CALL$ , Buy Call $GLD 20260213 505.0 CALL$ . This positions for GLD to be below 495 by February 13th, with the long 505 call serving as protection. At this stage, the conviction behind a sell call order c

Last Thursday saw several unusually large bearish orders opened, with the direction for most being somewhat ambiguous: $NVDA 20260130 165.0 PUT$  opened 126.6k contracts$AMD 20260130 220.0 PUT$  opened 59.5k contracts$SMH 20260130 370.0 PUT$  opened 57.9k contracts$AVGO 20260130 297.5 PUT$  opened 48k contracts$ORCL 20260130 152.5 PUT$  opened 44.4k contracts$TSM 20260130 295.0 PUT$  op

$FXI$ The March 20th expiry 33 put saw a massive purchase of 230,000 contracts over Tuesday and Wednesday. Although the trade price was only around $0.17, the sheer volume resulted in a total notional value exceeding $3 million. The current FXI price is $39. The delta for the 33 strike is only 0.069. Trades at this level are typically bets on a "black swan" event, with notional values in the tens of thousands. Spending millions on this is essentially throwing money away. Therefore, the trader either has genuine insider knowledge of a major impending negative event or holds an enormous long portfolio and needs to hedge against a potential flash crash. In either case, it signals expectations of a significant volatility spike. The profit mechanism for such deep OTM options isn't just the pric

$AAPL$Consumer electronics this year face a major unified issue: memory is too expensive. From computers down to smartphones, any device with storage is affected. Consumers are highly likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach with their cash.It seems consumer electronics stocks might struggle this year, at least in the first half.Of course, the answer to "when to buy the dip" is quite simple: follow the whales. When Duan Yongping says he wants to buy Apple in size, that's probably the time to consider it.There has been significant selling of the 280 calls expiring in February and March $AAPL 20260213 280.0 CALL$ , indicating the market doesn't expect a major Q1 rebound. Even the January 2027 expiry 280 calls

$TSLA$ Tesla reports earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Currently, anxiety outweighs expectations. There might be little news on autonomous driving, but 2026 delivery figures may not be very optimistic, likely slightly higher than 2025 deliveries. The expected trading range is between 400 and 465. If the stock price drops after earnings tomorrow, it would be more suitable for selling puts. $MSFT$ Earnings prospects are not particularly optimistic. The focus is on cloud business growth, Copilot monetization, and capital expenditures. The latter two have a probability of being underwhelming. If Microsoft's capex disappoints, it could weigh on other tech and chip stocks. Of course, a pullback also presents an opportunity. The weekly expiry 445 call

$NVDA$This Friday, January 16th, is the monthly options expiration, with a massive number of contracts expiring. Following the principle of "pinning to max pain" based on the largest open interest concentrations for calls and puts, NVIDIA's stock price is expected to gravitate towards a pullback, currently targeting around 170.Institutions' arbitrage strategy this week involves selling the 188 call $NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$  and hedging by buying the 193 call $NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$ .The lowest expected pullback price is seen around 150. I've considered this; it might be due to DeepSeek potentially releasing its V4 version around the Chinese New Ye

$NVDA$Starting next week, NVIDIA will add Monday and Wednesday weekly expirations. These new intra-week options are perfect for premium sellers to "farm theta." We'll examine them more closely once they launch.NVIDIA stands at another crossroads. Bearish option activity shows significant divergence regarding downside expectations, reminiscent of early last year. Puts in the 170-180 range can be interpreted as bullish positioning, expecting NVDA to consolidate above 170, betting on continued AI industry expansion—specifically GPU capacity.The bears targeting levels below 170, even halving the price, have various reasons. On a macro level, there's US-Europe geopolitical friction. From an industry perspective, the view is that Google's Gemini has secured an absolute victory in the foundationa

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has formally approved Nasdaq ISE's proposed rule change. Effective January 26, 2026, options on nine "mega-cap" company stocks and ETFs with top-tier market capitalization and liquidity will be added to the "Short Term Option Series (STO) Program," introducing new Monday and Wednesday short-term expiration dates. This move aims to provide traders with more flexible hedging and speculative tools while implementing stringent risk control requirements.Which 'Giants' Are Included in the New Program? (Q1 2026 List)According to the official Nasdaq list for Q1 2026, the following nine securities are the inaugural "Qualifying Securities":Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

$GOOGL$The past two months have been a consolidation phase. Trading in this environment can be tricky, but seeing this large order might clarify things:Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT$ , 9,684 contracts opened.Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT$ , 10,000 contracts opened.The message is: don't overcomplicate. Sell puts on dips; don't chase rallies. If you accidentally sell puts at a high level, don't panic and close for a loss immediately. Consider whether you're willing to take assignment—the price might rebound after you do.$NVDA$Institutions' primary bullish spread strategy for shorting is focused on the 192.5–197.5 range

Hello everyone. Today, I'd like to use the Ctrip stock crash incident to discuss managing short put positions.What Happened:💡 Cause: On January 14th, based on China's Anti-Monopoly Law, the State Administration for Market Regulation formally launched an investigation into Ctrip for suspected abuse of market dominance.💡 Impact on Stock Price: Ctrip's US-listed stock (Ticker: TCOM) closed at $75.68 on January 13th and plummeted 17% to close at $62.78 on January 14th. Ctrip's Hong Kong-listed stock (Ticker: 09961) closed at HKD 569 on January 14th and fell sharply intraday, down 20% to HKD 452 on January 15th.💡 Impact on Business: Ctrip issued an announcement stating that all company operations are normal and that the investigation has not yet had a material impact on its business.Changes in

$SPY$Pressure on the broad market remains significant ahead of the January 16th monthly options expiration, exerting a dampening effect across various sectors. Overall, the outlook remains bullish after this week. However, this week SPY is likely to pull back towards 680, probably closing within the 680-690 range.Notably, during Tuesday's session, someone opened a large position buying 20,000 contracts of the January 23rd expiry VXX 30.5 call $VXX 20260123 30.5 CALL$ , with a notional value of approximately $700,000. The timing of the order was exceptionally precise.$NVDA$I'm now convinced that the volatility during the January monthly options expiration week is more unpredictable than during a regular triple witching week