① What Happened Today Semiconductors got sold off. AI compute demand is strong, but delivery and financing risks are rising. Semis under pressure: Korea's KOSPI fell 3.73%, Samsung dropped 3%, and SK Hynix fell 4%. US semis were down about 2% premarket. Neocloud names NBIS and CRWV fell 5% and 4%. Weak Asian tech dragged on market mood. NVDA: Chinese companies reportedly ordered over 3 million export-compliant RTX PRO 5500 GPUs, worth over $35 billion at list price. But Nvidia reportedly may only be able to supply 5%–10% of the orders. Strong demand doesn't mean revenue shows up right away — supply is the key. AI compute expansion: Anthropic is in talks with Nscale for a new compute deal worth about $45 billion. OpenAI is speeding up a $30 billion funding round. AI demand is still hot, but

1. Basics: AI Compute Drives the Valuation SpaceX is expected to report Q3 revenue of $13B and EBIT of about $2.36B. But the market has already partly priced in higher compute pricing and new Neocloud deals. What matters more is whether earnings beat and what future guidance says. AI compute is the core of the valuation. The company expects compute to exceed 2GW by end-2026 and reach 5–10GW by end-2027, with sell-side consensus around 6GW. The market is watching whether compute expansion turns into real revenue and profit, not just scale. The AI business may be undervalued. Morgan Stanley analysts think the enterprise AI business is worth $165 per share and the connectivity business $118, meaning long-term valuation depends heavily on AI commercialization. Next catalysts: Starship Flight 1

1. This Week's Market Overview US stocks face a triple test: hotter inflation, pressure on AI financing, and earnings that need to prove the story. September CPI rose to 3.7%, and higher oil prices made the market rethink Fed rate-hike risk. Meanwhile, funding costs for AI cloud companies like CoreWeave are climbing. Investors are starting to ask: can huge AI spending actually turn into enough revenue and profit? Semiconductors fell for eight straight days, showing money is rethinking the growth premium on AI hardware. But the market isn't fully bearish: companies with AI platforms and ways to make money from products, like META and GOOGL, still have bright spots. Money is also moving into defensive sectors like healthcare. The key this week isn't whether AI demand exists. It's whether AI

① What Happened Today AI computing power is being questioned. Earnings season will decide if the rally can continue. AI supply chain under pressure: The world's top 20 tech stocks lost over $1 trillion in market value this week. The market worries whether huge AI investments will pay off. Nvidia's Jensen Huang pushed back on the idea that the market relies too much on a few AI companies. He said compute demand also comes from businesses, cloud services, and traditional computing. Short-term focus: can Nvidia keep confidence in the AI supply chain steady? Tesla up over 3% premarket: The "flying supercar" Roadster was shown. The new car uses SpaceX rocket propulsion tech, showed mid-air flips, and is planned for 2028 mass production. The news boosts excitement about Tesla's tech innovation.

The Key to This Earnings Report Is Whether Capex Proves AI Demand Lasts Through 2027–2028 1. Basics TSMC 3Q26 revenue was about $46.7B, up 18% quarter over quarter, already above the top of the company's own guidance. The main drivers were Apple/AMD moving to 2nm, and AI GPUs and ASICs moving to 3nm. The market's focus is no longer the revenue beat. It's the 4Q guidance, 2nm ramp speed, and gross margin. The market expects 4Q revenue to still grow 10–15% quarter over quarter, with full-year dollar revenue growth above 40%. But 3Q/4Q gross margin is about 67.0%/67.8%, a bit below the market's high expectations of 68–69%. The long-term story is still strong: N3/N2 capacity is tight, advanced packaging demand is strong, 2026 capex is about $63–64B, and 2027 could rise to $83B. Key thing to wa

① What Happened Today U.S. inflation rose to 3.7%, and rate pressure is back in the market. CPI came in hotter than expected: September CPI rose to 3.7% year over year, and core CPI rose to 2.6%. Higher energy prices pushed inflation up. Treasury yields jumped, the dollar strengthened, and gold and silver came under pressure. The market is starting to bet on more Fed rate hikes ahead, which is bad for tech stock valuations. Anthropic becomes the focus of the AI trade: Investor Day will test how AI commercialization is going. The market is watching whether annual recurring revenue (ARR) can keep growing, and when AI spending will turn into profit. Semiconductors were recently cut by hedge funds, but overall positioning is still high. If earnings or guidance miss, the sector could keep swing

① What Happened Today Semiconductors got sold off, and the AI trade is starting to split. Memory chips under pressure: China's CXMT made progress on a new architecture, raising fears about future competition. Samsung and SK Hynix kept falling. Micron dropped 3.9% overnight. Memory chips and hard drive stocks keep getting sold. AI investing logic is shifting: Broadcom's CEO warned that AI investing has too much speculation. Meta launched a new model called Muse Wonder, which made the market rethink: if big tech companies can build stronger models themselves, will demand for outside AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic drop? Meta bucked the trend: META rose about 4% after Muse Wonder launched. Money is splitting: some still chases big platforms with AI research power, while some leaves sem

I. Weekly Market Overview The biggest variable for U.S. stocks this week is the double test of rate pressure and AI profitability. Treasury yields and oil prices spiked at one point, increasing pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. After controversy over OpenAI’s annualized revenue figure, the market began asking when massive AI capex would convert into revenue. However, this does not mean AI demand has disappeared — rather, capital is starting to distinguish companies that can truly make money from those that merely benefit from the investment boom. This week, CPI, bank earnings, ASML earnings, and TSMC earnings will follow one after another. If inflation cools, financials perform steadily, and TSMC maintains a strong outlook, the broader market may regain support. Conversely, if rates

① What Happened Today Key Summary: OpenAI revenue expectation gap triggered a selloff in the AI supply chain, but AI demand has not been disproven. OpenAI revenue controversy hits AI trade: The market had previously expected its September annualized revenue to reach $70 billion, while the latest disclosed figure is about $50 billion. The difference mainly involves the statistical treatment of cloud partner revenue. The news triggered declines in AI-related stocks such as NVDA, ORCL, and AVGO, pressuring the semiconductor sector. The key is not just the numerical gap, but that the market is beginning to re-examine whether AI revenue can support massive compute investment. Capital begins to distinguish AI winners from losers: AI cloud services, optical communications, power, and financing-re

① What's Happening Today Key Summary: Geopolitical risk heats up, oil prices spike, short-term pressure on tech stocks rises. Trump's team is considering military action against Iran, combined with increasing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, driving risk-off sentiment. Crude oil rose about 5% in a single day, and Treasury yields also moved higher. The tech sector is diverging: Samsung's results slightly beat lowered expectations, but the stock still fell 2%. TSMC's September revenue grew 54.6% YoY, yet the stock fell 1% — showing the market currently cares more about "whether the good news is already priced in." The AI theme still has capital support: GOOGL rose about 1% on Gemini enterprise agent news. Meanwhile, Broadcom and Oracle are participating in over $50 billio

① What's Happening Today Key Summary: Rates and oil prices both rising, tech stocks under pre-market pressure, but capital hasn't fully exited AI. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year rising to 5.35% and the 30-year to 5.70%. Combined with rising oil prices and escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions, the semiconductor sector led the decline. But the AI main line hasn't gone out: MRVL raised its long-term revenue target at its Investor Day, AVGO was boosted by news of Anthropic TPU orders, B200 rental prices continued climbing, and power demand-related names VST, GEV, and BE strengthened in tandem. Today's core tension: Rates are compressing valuations, but AI compute demand is still providing fundamental support. ② What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against 🟠 Buy Side: Index and

1. Weekly Market Overview Last week, U.S. equities overall maintained strength, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high. Although semiconductor stocks like AMD, INTC, and ARM pulled back at one point as the market reassessed Meta's AI demand, they still closed higher for the week — showing capital hasn't left the AI main line. What truly drove risk appetite higher was September nonfarm payrolls adding only 29,000 jobs, far below expectations, with the prior two months revised down. Market expectations for an October rate hike dropped rapidly from about 70% to about 20%, reigniting the rate-cut trade. This week marks the start of Q3 earnings season, with market focus shifting from how much is being invested in AI to whether that investment can convert into revenue and profit. Therefore, the c

① What's Happening Today Core Theme: Nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, rate-cut trade heats up; AI capex is still expanding, but capital is starting to diverge. Jobs Cooling: U.S. September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000; July and August data were revised down by a combined 60,000. Traders trimmed bets on an October rate hike, and U.S. equity futures rallied afterward. Short-term focus on reactions in bonds, financials, and tech. AI Financing and Compute: A Broadcom-led syndicate reportedly raised up to $60 billion in financing to support AI infrastructure demand from companies like Anthropic. NVDA rose on optimistic roadshow interpretations, but AVGO fell — showing that AI demand growth and financing costs remain two separate trading thre

① What's Happening Today Key Summary: U.S. equities closed mixed higher yesterday, but gave back gains notably into the close. Capital style favored software over semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Today's Three Most Important Things: 1 | MU Earnings Clearly Beat, But Gross Margin Guidance Was Weak MU's revenue, EPS, and next-quarter revenue/EPS guidance all came in above market expectations. The only notable blemish was next-quarter gross margin guidance dropping to about 86.25%. Management stated that the first fiscal quarter is expected to be the low point for FY2027 gross margins, with gradual improvement thereafter. → Today, watch whether MU's post-earnings price action can lift the semiconductor sector, and whether HBM demand can offset gross margin pressure. 2 | Long-End Treasury

① What's Happening Today Key Point: Ahead of Micron's Earnings, the Semiconductor Trade Logic Is Shifting from "AI Demand" to "Memory Prices + Supply-Demand Tightness." U.S. equities were mixed yesterday, with QQQ roughly flat and the semiconductor sector up about 1.2%. However, long-end Treasury yields continued climbing, with the 30-year rising to 5.59% — a new high since 2002 — capping broader market valuation expansion. On the AI front, OpenAI DevDay continued to reinforce enterprise Agent commercialization expectations, with AI infrastructure-related names like ORCL and BE strengthening notably. What really needs watching today is Micron's (MU) earnings. The market's focus isn't just on whether this quarter's results beat expectations — more importantly: Whether DRAM/NAND price increa

① What's Happening Today AI compute trade is cooling. The semiconductor index fell 1.7%, down as much as 3.6% intraday. CPU-related names like AMD, Intel, and ARM weakened. The core reason: the market is revising down expectations for CPU compute demand driven by Meta's Muse — the "buy up all the world's CPUs" trade logic is cooling. Meta falls 5%, AI application expectations begin to reprice. The market is waiting for OpenAI's developer conference on one hand, while starting to question the actual pace at which AI Agents will change consumer and business models. Meta has already rallied significantly in the short term, and its valuation has entered a higher range. Optical communications pull back in sync. CRDO fell 8.7%, with COHR, ALAB, and CIEN weakening. The market is reassessing optic

① Weekly Market Overview Last week, the core tension in U.S. equities shifted from "can AI keep rallying" to "can AI growth + high rates + energy risk be digested simultaneously." On the AI front, Meta's Muse topped the U.S. App Store free chart, with Meta surging 12.9% for the week. AMD, Intel, and Arm also strengthened in tandem, as the market began trading the new CPU, inference, and consumer entry-point demand that AI Agents are expected to drive. On the other hand, Middle East tensions escalated again. On 9/26, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, making energy supply risk a key variable for oil prices and inflation expectations this week. This week's core focus: AI looks to earnings and event catalysts, while the market must simultaneously wat

1. What's Happening Today Rates Side Leans Pressured, But Tech Sees Selective Catalysts. TLT Falls for a Second Consecutive Day: Treasury yields continue rising, with the market repricing roughly 40bp of cumulative hikes this year. The probability of an October FOMC hike has risen to about 70%. QQQ Rebounds, Crude Oil Pulls Back: The U.S. and Iran are discussing a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy supply risks. AI Infrastructure Diverges: ORCL delayed payment arrangements for its Jupiter data center project, and ARM weakened on Jupiter order exposure. Anthropic signed a 7-year CPU capacity commitment with AKAM, lifting AKAM, INTC, and AMD. IWM: Currently stuck at the 30-week MA. Watch today whether it retests the 60-week MA or reclaims the 30-week MA. 2. What Money Is

1. What's Happening Today Middle East Risk Escalates: U.S.-Iran talks remain deadlocked, the Strait of Hormuz shows no prospect of reopening, and Brent has broken above $100 again. Long-End Rates Rising: U.S. 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields have climbed to multi-year highs, with the market re-trading the "higher rates for longer / further hikes" narrative. AI Entry-Point Competition Heats Up: Meta positions Muse as its core consumer AI product, targeting 1 billion users; OpenAI is rumored to launch a personal Agent as soon as this week; Google, threatened by AI Agents, fell 3.8% yesterday. 2. What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against Defending Against Two Things: Oil Prices + Tech Pullback. 🟠 Buy Side VIX | 2026/12/16 14 Call — 25,600 contracts.

1. What's Happening Today U.S.-Iran Resume Contact, Oil Prices Pull Back: The U.S. and Iran have resumed contact since June, Saudi Arabia is gradually restoring some crude supply, and Brent has fallen back below $100, increasing near-term pressure on the energy sector. Burry Adds to AI/Memory Shorts: Michael Burry has expanded short positions in MU, NBIS, PLTR, and others. The core concern is that after new memory supply is released, prices may come under pressure. AI Theme Still Burning: NVDA still saw short-dated Call buying yesterday, with the market continuing to trade AI capex and semiconductor demand. 2. What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against 🟠 Buy Side: Energy Defense + Policy Offense + Short-Term AI XOP | 2026/11/20 175 Put 9,000 contracts, $5.175 million. Open interest was o