Color Legend π΄ Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. π Orange: Briefly broke above/below the forecast range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results (All Four Seller Trades in Floating Profit) π’ SKHY Sell Put: Sold the September 18-expiry 130 Put, entry price 0.62, current price 0.33 β floating profit. β
DELL Sell Put: Sold the September 4-expiry 380 Put, entry price 2.66, current price 0.02 β profitable and closed. π’ MRNA Sell Put: Sold the September 18-expiry 120 Put, entry price 0.97, current price 0.70 β floating profit. π’ AMD Sell Put: Sold the September 11-expiry 410 Put, entry price 1.40, current price 0.82 β floating profit. II. Broader Market Assessment Volatility this week was generally at a
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8/31β9/3: The Consequence of Low Volatility
8/31β9/3: The Consequence of Low Volatility
9/3 Pre-Market Thoughts
I. Key Events AVGO (Broadcom): Down 3% on Guidance Miss Q3 results slightly beat market expectations, Q4 in line, with clear FY2027/FY2028 outlook provided. However, FY2027 revenue guidance of $115 billion fell short of the market's $130 billion expectation; FY2028 expectations, in contrast, far exceeded Wall Street consensus. Growth is heavily dependent on Anthropic and OpenAI, introducing significant uncertainty to the outlook. Key level to watch: whether the stock pulls back to the 20-month MA at 320. SNOW (Snowflake): Surged 23% on Accelerating Growth Annual revenue growth is accelerating, with Q3 revenue growth of 37β38% (above market expectations of 30%), and full-year guidance raised from 31% to 36%. There may be further upside in the coming months. Approach: watch for Sell Put oppo
9/2 Pre-Market Thoughts: Shorting Calls
I. Key Events DELL (Dell Technologies): Guidance Beat, But Be Cautious of Sustainability FY2027 EPS guidance was raised by 40%, significantly beating expectations. However, caution is warranted β such high growth from a beat may itself be unsustainable; watch for realization risk. HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise): Earnings After Close Earnings are expected to be solid, with this week's implied volatility range at 45β55. However, weighed down by macro headwinds, the stock is likely to gap up and then sell off. A dual-sell strategy (Sell Put + Sell Call) to capture volatility could be considered. AVGO (Broadcom): Earnings After Close Implied volatility range is 335β400. The market is concerned about market share loss at GOOGL (Google) and the lack of clear FY27 guidance, leaning bearish. How
9/1 Pre-Market Thoughts: The Worst Month Is Here
I. Key Events Rates and Dollar Both Rise, Risk Assets Broadly Decline: U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rebounded again, the dollar index strengthened, and U.S. equities pulled back, with Bitcoin, gold, and Hong Kong stocks all under pressure simultaneously. Geopolitical Disruption Lifts Oil Prices: Two very large crude carriers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher again. However, options flow shows large sell call openings on energy names expiring toward year-end, suggesting producers remain cautious on the upside for oil prices. DELL Earnings (Tuesday After Close): Expected to raise full-year guidance. II. Notable Block Trades (Directional Signals) VIX$VIX 20270317 47.5 CALL$ Buy Call, strike 47.5,
The above chart shows the weekly volatility ranges and simulated short put alternative strike prices for 17 key stocks, calculated based on various indicators β for simulation reference only π π This table answers: Where the stock price is likely to be this week (the range). Whether the seller premium is expensive right now (IV percentile rank). How far out the strike price should be placed to stay safe (Column 8). The ranges calculated in this table are like "probability of rain," not a "guarantee of no rain." The usage is simple: place the sell put strike price further below the lower end of the range. The higher the percentile rank, the more favorable it is for sellers. π Noteworthy Points AVGO has the highest implied weekly move (8.09%, IV 49%): an earnings stock this week, with the la
8/31 Pre-Market: Low Volatility Is the Calm Before the Storm
One-sentence theme: Low volatility is the calm before the storm β VIX block trades are betting on a volatility rebound, and the upcoming jobs report (Friday) could trigger a pullback regardless of whether the data is good or bad. I. Sentiment Focus: A Turning Point Is Approaching Friday Nonfarm Payrolls β Rate-Hike Expectation Trade (Key Variable) The data will be released one hour before the open, with expectations of August nonfarm payrolls at +58,000 and unemployment at 4.1%. β οΈ Regardless of the data, the market could pull back: if weak = economic softness; if strong = rate hikes ahead β a lose-lose scenario. Gold and Bitcoin are expected to trend weaker before September 18 (rate-hike expectations weighing on sentiment). VIX Block Trade: Betting "Low Volatility Is About to End" VIX 10/
8/24β27 Weekly Volatility Ranges & Simulation Recap (Pre-Friday Open)
Color Legend π΄ Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. π Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results: 3 Floating Profits TSLA Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 336, entry price 1.44, current price 0.05 β profitable. GLD Sell Put, 9/18 expiry at 400, entry price 2.57, current price 2.41 β floating profit. COIN Sell Put, 9/4 expiry at 200, entry price 1.66, current price 0.61 β floating profit. Review: All three trades remain safe β TSLA is holding above 336, COIN above 200, and GLD above 400. The seller environment was favorable this week, supported by NVIDIA's earnings delivery and broad market stabilization. However, Jackson Hole (Warsh's debut) is the biggest variable t
8/24β27 Weekly Volatility Ranges & Simulation Recap (Pre-Friday Open)
8/27 Pre-Market Thoughts: Top-Boundary Trading
One-sentence theme: NVIDIA beat earnings, breaking above 220 and challenging 225. But block trades are collectively betting on "gold / Hong Kong stocks / China ADRs topping out" ahead of Jackson Hole (betting on a hawkish Warsh and a dollar rebound). The tone: range-bound trading at key levels β don't chase highs; wait for Warsh to set the tone. I. Sentiment Focus NVIDIA Challenges 225 (Earnings Delivered) Post-earnings, the stock broke above 220, with revenue doubling YoY beating expectations, and next-year guidance calling for 70% revenue growth β strong execution. Key observation: Can it break 225? (GEX shows 225/230 is a super Call wall, a hard ceiling). If the breakout fails β consider Sell Calls (capture IV crush + cap upside). Block Trades Collectively Betting on "Top Formation" β H
8/25 Pre-Market Thoughts: The Night Before Earnings
One-sentence theme: NVIDIA reports earnings after the close tonight, with massive block trades betting on a surge to 230. Anthropic's "$30 trillion pie-in-the-sky" narrative continues to hype the AI atmosphere. I. Sentiment Focus: The Night Before NVIDIA Earnings Tonight (8/26) after the close is the make-or-break event for the entire market this week. Options block trades have already taken a clear side (see below). Outlook: GEX shows 200 is support / a Triple Witching magnet, while 230 is a super Call wall. IV is elevated. There is a high probability of a double beat, but "already fully priced in + circular financing concerns + historical post-earnings pullbacks" β the risk of failing to rally or even pulling back is higher. Strategic tone: Post-earnings IV crush + September 18 Triple Wi
NVIDIA F2Q27 Earnings Strategy: Beat, But Upside Is Limited
I. Fundamentals Earnings expectations: Revenue and profit expected to double-beat, with strong guidance. Revenue is expected at $94β95 billion (guidance at $91 billion, beating by $3β4 billion), up 16% YoY. Next-quarter guidance is expected to be raised to $107β108 billion. Drivers: GB300 rack shipments ramping (total rack units up 15% QoQ to 17,000β18,000), initial Vera Rubin shipments + Vera CPU volume ramp, and solid cloud capex. Several key points to watch: China H200 is an upside lever: Approved but shipments are slow β every 100,000 units shipped generates approximately $3 billion in incremental revenue, making it an important variable for October guidance. Addressing competition: In response to the ASIC/AMD share-erosion narrative, management will emphasize platform flexibility + Ve
8/25 Pre-Market Thoughts: Big Money Loading Up
One-sentence theme: Smart money is buying β Pelosi is betting on AI power (BE/INTC), while Jack Ma and Joe Tsai are adding to Alibaba. At the same time, crude oil plunged 3% (Middle East easing). I. Sentiment Focus: Big Players Buying in Sync Pelosi family bets on "AI Power" On 7/24, purchased 10,000 shares of INTC + 15,000 shares of BE, along with long-term call options expiring in June 2027$BE 20270617 100.0 CALL$ $INTC 20270617 50.0 CALL$. BE (Bloom Energy) = solid oxide fuel cells, capable of providing on-site power directly to data centers and large commercial clients β a "power supply concept stock" tied to AI data center expansion. Jack Ma and Joe T
8/24 Pre-Market Thoughts: Alibaba
One-sentence theme: Alibaba's largest-ever HK$80 billion secondary offering drained liquidity from the Hong Kong market, triggering a sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks. U.S. equities are in a wait-and-see mode between Bessent's trillion-dollar buyback (which the market doubts) and Friday's Jackson Hole symposium. I. Sentiment Focus: Alibaba's Massive Capital Drain Bleeds Hong Kong Alibaba plans a HK$80 billion secondary offering at HK$112.7 per share β the largest-ever new share placement in Hong Kong history, aimed at solidifying its AI leadership position. This is the direct cause of today's Hong Kong market plunge: a placement = discounted new shares = dilution + supply shock. The placement price of HK$112.7 is below the current price β pulling the stock price directly toward HK$112.7, whi
The above chart shows the weekly volatility ranges and simulated short put alternative strike prices for 17 key stocks, calculated based on various indicators β for simulation reference only π π This table answers: Where the stock price is likely to be this week (the range). Whether the seller premium is expensive right now (IV percentile rank). How far out the strike price should be placed to stay safe (Column 8). The ranges calculated in this table are like "probability of rain," not a "guarantee of no rain." The usage is simple: place the sell put strike price further below the lower end of the range. The higher the percentile rank, the more favorable it is for sellers. π Noteworthy Points NVDA is the most watched volatility story this week: Implied weekly move 6.1%, IV30 at 42.61%, ran
8/17β20 Weekly Volatility Ranges & Simulation Recap (Pre-Friday Open)
Color Legend π΄ Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. π Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results: 1 Win, 3 Losses COIN Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 150, entry price 1.17, current price 0.68 β profitable. INTC Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 95, entry price 1.70, current price 5.10 β loss. DELL Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 410, entry price 3.16, current price 6.37 β loss. NVDA Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 200, entry price 0.85, current price 1.27 β loss. Review: The broader market unexpectedly pulled back this week (short-squeeze fade + Treasury yield pressure), leaving Sell Puts generally in floating losses. However, all contracts expire at month-end (8/28) with strikes that ha
8/17β20 Weekly Volatility Ranges & Simulation Recap (Pre-Friday Open)
8/20 Pre-Market Thoughts: Hard Assets Rampage
One-sentence theme: A massive rotation is underway β gold at 4,500, crude oil +3%, bitcoin short-squeeze rally (hard assets rampage), while U.S. stocks continue to pull back. Fiscal stimulus failed to suppress long-end rates, and risk appetite has shifted toward physical assets. I. Sentiment Focus: Hard Assets Surging Across the Board Gold breaks above 4,500: The U.S. Treasury announced at least a doubling of long-end repurchase scale (injecting liquidity) β gold surged to 4,500. However, pre-market Thursday saw the 30-year Treasury yield rebound sharply, returning to pre-announcement levels β fiscal stimulus failed to suppress long-end rates, and U.S. equities continued their pullback. Crude oil +3%, maintaining strong upward momentum. Bitcoin short squeeze! Surged to 72,000, with $2.7 bi
Alibaba Earnings Strategy: Delivery Losses Narrowing
I. Cloud Business Beats Expectations Alibaba is expected to report Q1 FY2027 revenue with customer management revenue down 8% YoY, while cloud revenue is expected to grow 45% YoY (accelerating). Losses from delivery and flash purchase investments are narrowing rapidly, leading to upward revisions in FY2027 EPS forecasts. Cloud revenue continues to accelerate with improving profit margins quarter-over-quarter, which could serve as a catalyst for the stock in the coming quarters. Core catalysts (AI + Cloud): Qwen 4.0 foundational model upgrade in Q3 2026; September 22 Alibaba Cloud Apsara Conference: capital guidance updates, cloud business outlook, and new product launches; Potential T-Head semiconductor spin-off in Q2 2027. II. Volatility Estimates and Key Levels **U.S.-listed BABA (curren
8/19 Pre-Market Thoughts: AI Giants (OpenAI, Anthropic) Drag on Sentiment
One-sentence theme: Bulls and bears collide β Hynix's massive buyback supports storage/semiconductors (bullish), but OpenAI and Anthropic both show slowing growth (bearish). Block trades are uniformly selling Puts at lower levels to "set a floor." I. Sentiment Focus: One Bullish, One Bearish π’ Bullish: Hynix's $28.4 Billion Buyback Halts Semiconductor Decline Hynix announced a 40 trillion won (~$28.4 billion) treasury stock buyback and cancellation, enhancing shareholder returns β starting August 20, lasting three months. Immediate effect: the news halted the semiconductor downtrend, with Hynix itself stabilizing and rebounding. Signal significance: buyback + cancellation = management using real money to signal that "the stock is undervalued and will rise further," stabilizing market confi
8/17 Pre-Market Thoughts: Bond Market Flashes Red
One-sentence theme: Risk signals are piling up β semiconductor sell-off + bond yields at 18-year highs + large VIX/IGV block trades betting on a pullback β with much of the focus pointing toward Jackson Hole (8/27β29). I. Sentiment Focus: Bearish Signals Flashing Simultaneously Semiconductor pre-market sell-off: SOXX -3.8%, SMH -3.3% β the previously leading chip names are starting to retreat. 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%, the highest since 2007 β οΈ Surging long-end rates will raise corporate borrowing costs. Key insight: the yield spike is very likely driven by heavy debt issuance from the AI supply chain itself β AI debt issuance β pushes rates higher β rates feed back and hurt AI itself (more expensive financing, valuation pressure). This is a self-reinforcing risk loop, and a side eff
Xiaomi Q2 Earnings Strategy: Focus on the EV Business
I. Smartphone Business Holds the Fort, Overall Results in Line with Expectations Smartphone average selling price hit an all-time high (passing through rising costs) β Q2 smartphone gross margin remained above 8%. Shipments exceeded expectations: Omdia data showed Q2 shipments of 31.2 million units, 15% above Morgan Stanley's forecast. New model launches and export plans are key to restarting growth: EV sales have slowed significantly in 2026 year-to-date. To reignite market enthusiasm, Xiaomi plans to deliver its first SUV model in late September 2026. Additionally, Xiaomi plans to begin exporting vehicles in 2027. Overall financials: Total revenue is expected to exceed RMB 100 billion, with recurring net profit of approximately RMB 6 billion, in line with expectations. Core tension: Smar
8/17 Pre-Market Thoughts: Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion IPO
One-sentence theme: The AI primary market is red-hot (Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO pushes valuations to the limit), while secondary market funds continue to go long on the Nasdaq and short Hong Kong stocks. The tone remains unchanged: Sell Puts on pullbacks, don't chase highs. I. Sentiment Focus: Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO β Valuation Supported by the "Future" Valuation maxed out: According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO valuation is anchored to revenue expectations two years out β projected 2028 revenue of $190β200 billion (far above the $47 billion annualized run rate in May). This framework could support a valuation approaching $2 trillion. Growth is staggering: According to Bloomberg, Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, up 14x YoY and 2.4x QoQ (from $4.73 billion last quarter). Anthropic i
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