$VIX$ Another massive bullish volatility order has appeared. The March 18th expiry 35 call $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$  traded 300,000 contracts for a total notional value of over $20 million. Opened around the same time was the February 18th expiry 35 call $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$ , trading 250,000 contracts. Based on SPY's option activity, the probability of a major decline this week seems low. However, historical patterns suggest a non-negligible chance of a correction starting in late February. $GOOGL$ Google now enjoys the privilege of Monday & Wednesday weekly expiry options, though none expire on its actual earnings day. As the current undisputed l

$NVDA$ This week marks the launch of Monday and Wednesday weekly expiry options. For these new short-dated contracts, we'll observe for a week before formulating strategies. Overall, NVDA's price is expected to remain below 195 this week. Institutions continue selling the 195 call $NVDA 20260206 195.0 CALL$ , hedged by buying the 200 call $NVDA 20260206 200.0 CALL$ . The lower bound is more nuanced. 170 remains a potential target, but stability around 190 cannot be ruled out. Analyzing open interest for the Feb 2nd and Feb 4th expiries suggests the possibility of a minor pullback in NVDA following earnings from AMD or Google. $AMD$ The rise of agentic

$GLD$ Today, scanning large orders, I was startled to see a massive call buy on the Gold ETF: $GLD 20260213 505.0 CALL$ , with 80,000 contracts traded for a total notional value of $71.33 million. Later, I discovered an equally large sell call order. Placed simultaneously, they likely constitute a paired, combination order—specifically, a Bear Call Spread: Sell Call $GLD 20260213 495.0 CALL$ , Buy Call $GLD 20260213 505.0 CALL$ . This positions for GLD to be below 495 by February 13th, with the long 505 call serving as protection. At this stage, the conviction behind a sell call order c

$TSLA$ Tesla reports earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Currently, anxiety outweighs expectations. There might be little news on autonomous driving, but 2026 delivery figures may not be very optimistic, likely slightly higher than 2025 deliveries. The expected trading range is between 400 and 465. If the stock price drops after earnings tomorrow, it would be more suitable for selling puts. $MSFT$ Earnings prospects are not particularly optimistic. The focus is on cloud business growth, Copilot monetization, and capital expenditures. The latter two have a probability of being underwhelming. If Microsoft's capex disappoints, it could weigh on other tech and chip stocks. Of course, a pullback also presents an opportunity. The weekly expiry 445 call

$AAPL$ Apple has seen a large bullish call order. The May 15th expiry 285 call $AAPL 20260515 285.0 CALL$  had 69,000 contracts opened, with a total notional value of approximately $34+ million. Although I believe Apple's performance this year may still be weighed down by high memory prices, this doesn't prevent the market and large investors from perceiving a potential bottom. With earnings this week, selling the 250 put is an option: $AAPL 20260130 250.0 PUT$ . $FXI$ Regarding the large bearish China ETF orders, I discovered someone shared my analysis in a group, causing some panic. However, a massive, deep out-of-the-money bearish order like

Last Thursday saw several unusually large bearish orders opened, with the direction for most being somewhat ambiguous: $NVDA 20260130 165.0 PUT$  opened 126.6k contracts$AMD 20260130 220.0 PUT$  opened 59.5k contracts$SMH 20260130 370.0 PUT$  opened 57.9k contracts$AVGO 20260130 297.5 PUT$  opened 48k contracts$ORCL 20260130 152.5 PUT$  opened 44.4k contracts$TSM 20260130 295.0 PUT$  op

$FXI$ The March 20th expiry 33 put saw a massive purchase of 230,000 contracts over Tuesday and Wednesday. Although the trade price was only around $0.17, the sheer volume resulted in a total notional value exceeding $3 million. The current FXI price is $39. The delta for the 33 strike is only 0.069. Trades at this level are typically bets on a "black swan" event, with notional values in the tens of thousands. Spending millions on this is essentially throwing money away. Therefore, the trader either has genuine insider knowledge of a major impending negative event or holds an enormous long portfolio and needs to hedge against a potential flash crash. In either case, it signals expectations of a significant volatility spike. The profit mechanism for such deep OTM options isn't just the pric

$AAPL$Consumer electronics this year face a major unified issue: memory is too expensive. From computers down to smartphones, any device with storage is affected. Consumers are highly likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach with their cash.It seems consumer electronics stocks might struggle this year, at least in the first half.Of course, the answer to "when to buy the dip" is quite simple: follow the whales. When Duan Yongping says he wants to buy Apple in size, that's probably the time to consider it.There has been significant selling of the 280 calls expiring in February and March $AAPL 20260213 280.0 CALL$ , indicating the market doesn't expect a major Q1 rebound. Even the January 2027 expiry 280 calls

$NVDA$Starting next week, NVIDIA will add Monday and Wednesday weekly expirations. These new intra-week options are perfect for premium sellers to "farm theta." We'll examine them more closely once they launch.NVIDIA stands at another crossroads. Bearish option activity shows significant divergence regarding downside expectations, reminiscent of early last year. Puts in the 170-180 range can be interpreted as bullish positioning, expecting NVDA to consolidate above 170, betting on continued AI industry expansion—specifically GPU capacity.The bears targeting levels below 170, even halving the price, have various reasons. On a macro level, there's US-Europe geopolitical friction. From an industry perspective, the view is that Google's Gemini has secured an absolute victory in the foundationa

On Wednesday, a series of bafflingly large bearish orders emerged targeting the AI sector. The scale of these new put option purchases was astonishing, reaching tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, with a timeframe pointing to before the Lunar New Year.The underlying assets involved include TSMC, Oracle, Broadcom, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX:$TSM 20260220 330.0 PUT$ $TSM 20260220 320.0 PUT$ $ORCL 20260213 160.0 PUT$ $AVGO 20260320 240.0 PUT$ $SOXX 20

$SPY$Pressure on the broad market remains significant ahead of the January 16th monthly options expiration, exerting a dampening effect across various sectors. Overall, the outlook remains bullish after this week. However, this week SPY is likely to pull back towards 680, probably closing within the 680-690 range.Notably, during Tuesday's session, someone opened a large position buying 20,000 contracts of the January 23rd expiry VXX 30.5 call $VXX 20260123 30.5 CALL$ , with a notional value of approximately $700,000. The timing of the order was exceptionally precise.$NVDA$I'm now convinced that the volatility during the January monthly options expiration week is more unpredictable than during a regular triple witching week

$NVDA$A large block trade sold the 220 call $NVDA 20260220 220.0 CALL$ , opening 39,000 contracts. The expiry date chosen is one week before earnings. While selling deep out-of-the-money to capture time value, it shows extreme caution.I've observed something different in bullish openings this year. Sequential, sizeable single-leg openings are occurring in expiring week options, seemingly betting with market makers on the possibility of an extreme short squeeze. However, I expect this week to mirror last week—all these positions will likely expire worthless, with the stock price closing between 170 and 180.That said, I don't believe NVIDIA won't rise. The current US market resembles the A-share market, both experiencing r

$NVDA$This Friday, January 16th, is the monthly options expiration, with a massive number of contracts expiring. Following the principle of "pinning to max pain" based on the largest open interest concentrations for calls and puts, NVIDIA's stock price is expected to gravitate towards a pullback, currently targeting around 170.Institutions' arbitrage strategy this week involves selling the 188 call $NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$  and hedging by buying the 193 call $NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$ .The lowest expected pullback price is seen around 150. I've considered this; it might be due to DeepSeek potentially releasing its V4 version around the Chinese New Ye

$GOOGL$ $GOOG$Google is currently the company with the most large bullish orders observed, potentially the Q1 leader among the MAGA7 stocks.Large buy call orders include the purchase of June 18th expiry 430 calls: $GOOGL 20260618 430.0 CALL$ .Large sell put orders include selling the 330 put $GOOG 20260918 330.0 PUT$  and selling the 310 put $GOOGL 20260320 310.0 PUT$ .$AMZN$Amazon also has large buy call orders $AMZN 20260618 310.0 CALL$ . It's worth noting that half the position was reduced the day after the trad

$NVDA$There is renewed heavy call option buying concentrated in the 187.5 to 202.5 strikes expiring this week, increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze.For selling puts, consider raising the strike price to 185. $NVDA 20260109 185.0 PUT$ $MU$Micron currently faces a similar issue as silver—it's difficult to pinpoint where the top might be. Bears have opened puts expiring this week, aiming to trigger a pullback to 320. It's uncertain if they'll succeed, but selling the 310 put this week seems relatively safe.I have a theory: by referencing options trading volume, Micron might be nearing a top when its volume approaches that of the silver ETF SLV. That could signal the FOMO (fear of missing out) buying is exhausting its

$KWEB$A relatively rare scenario has emerged: large orders chasing a rally, with a massive temporary addition of long call options, betting KWEB will rise to 40.The main large bullish orders include:$KWEB 20260821 40.0 CALL$ : August 21st expiry 40 calls, 92,000 contracts opened, direction buy, notional value approximately over $23 million.$KWEB 20260320 40.0 CALL$ : March 20th expiry 40 calls, 36,000 contracts opened, direction buy, notional value approximately over $3 million.$KWEB 20260220 37.0 CALL$ : February 20th expiry 37 calls, 9,876 contracts opened, direction buy.100,000 contr

$GOOGL$The past two months have been a consolidation phase. Trading in this environment can be tricky, but seeing this large order might clarify things:Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260220 310.0 PUT$ , 9,684 contracts opened.Sell Put 310 $GOOGL 20260206 310.0 PUT$ , 10,000 contracts opened.The message is: don't overcomplicate. Sell puts on dips; don't chase rallies. If you accidentally sell puts at a high level, don't panic and close for a loss immediately. Consider whether you're willing to take assignment—the price might rebound after you do.$NVDA$Institutions' primary bullish spread strategy for shorting is focused on the 192.5–197.5 range

$NVDA$For January, the most reliable sell put strike is undoubtedly still 160. A large block trade opened, selling the January 30th 160 put $NVDA 20260130 160.0 PUT$ , with 36.9k contracts opened.On the call side, the January 16th 190 call $NVDA 20260116 190.0 CALL$  saw 30k contracts added in new opens, leaning towards the sell side, bringing total open interest to 100k contracts. The market message is that it will be difficult for the price to break above 190 before January 16th.However, referencing last January's price action, if the broader market does not correct after the New Year but maintains its current consolidation, given the scale of open in

$SPY$Theoretically, the market should consolidate sideways this week, then correct after positive news from the CES conference is digested.However, a large bearish spread order was opened on SPY: buying the 684 put and selling the 672 put $SPY 20260102 684.0 PUT$  $SPY 20260102 672.0 PUT$ . This implies a potential pullback to around 680 this week.Currently, the source disrupting market rhythm could potentially be precious metals.$SLV$Options activity on the Silver ETF suggests a clear short squeeze scenario. Front-month call options are being closed continuously, while front-month put options are seeing significant additions. However, a squeeze-driven ral

$SPY$It seems just one step away from 7000 points. The market continues its upward consolidation tonight. Based on options opening positions, 7000 points are not tonight's target, but we can hope for next week.Tonight's likely range is between 690 and 695. After rising to 700 next week, a pullback is possible.$NVDA$Institutions are selling the 192.5 call expiring next week $NVDA 20260102 192.5 CALL$  and buying the 197.5 call for hedging/arbitrage $NVDA 20260102 197.5 CALL$ . This suggests the stock price is expected to be below 192.5 next week.Overall long (call) opening data indicates a potential return to around 200 soon, especially with the CES con