For me, 2025 was the year I finally stepped into options trading—and I’m glad I started. I’m still a beginner, but my first trade, a PLTR call, ended with a small profit and gave me the confidence to explore options. Even so, I still trade mostly the underlying stocks because I’m not fully comfortable with the complexities of options yet. I prefer to take things slow while I learn about strike selection, expiration management, and position sizing, so sticking with shares kept my portfolio steady through the year’s volatility. AI was the biggest driver of my portfolio in 2025, and starting my options journey with Palantir felt fitting. The sector’s strength carried my performance, and I’m looking forward to building on what I learned as I continue improving my option strategies in 2026. I’

So as you can see by the screen shot below, this year has been a roller coaster. Coming out on top with a 46% return, but a few days back it was only 26% YTD. I think many other tigers may have similar stories, I'd love to here yours.  I'm not big on listening to market predictions, they are generally wrong. I suppose the biggest one is the Ai bubble. I think those that are predicting a major crash in Ai in 2006 are full of shite. I certainly will not be going out and buying more speculative Ai or chip stocks. But I'll continue buying $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$. Just DCA into what's the cheapest eve

Either huge win or huge loss, too much for weak heart. Options are tough.

Morgan Stanley has just released its 2026 global strategy, and the message is clear: risk assets are set to lead. Supported by AI capital expenditure, a rare alignment of fiscal, monetary, and deregulation policies, and resilient U.S. economic growth, 2026 could be a strong year for investors who know where to focus.Morgan Stanley expects strong performance for U.S. equities next year, with a year-end target of 7,800 for the S&P 500. They believe the U.S. recession is over, and that policy support and strong corporate earnings will continue.Here’s a breakdown of their 10 key predictions:1. Risk Assets Overall Poised to ShineEquities are expected to outperform credit and government bonds.U.S. stocks take the lead, with AI investment and supportive policies driving growth.2. US Equities

Wall Street's crystal ball is gleaming again – Morgan Stanley's fresh 2026 outlook paints a sun-kissed paradise where U.S. stocks reign supreme, the S&P 500 catapults 14% to 7,800, and a dream-team policy cocktail of fiscal fireworks, Fed easing, and deregulation turbocharges AI capex into a $3 trillion beast. Corporate earnings? Set to explode 17% with EPS hitting $317, inflation melts to 2.1%, and the dollar's gentle dip to 94 unleashes global risk-on rapture. Sounds like a holiday gift-wrapped rally, right? But peel back the tinsel, and cracks emerge: Tariff tsunamis could swamp that "resilient" U.S. engine, AI productivity might fizzle like a dud sparkler, and overvalued mega-caps could drag the "other 493" into the ditch. As December 1, 2025, dawns with QT's curtain call flooding

I used to think predictions worked like train schedules—delayed sometimes, but ultimately arriving on the same track. The last few years cured me of that illusion. I’ve spent enough time pacing at the metaphorical platform, clutching my bearish ticket, waiting for the Recession Express that was “definitely” arriving in 2023… or 2024… or, surely, 2025. Yet here we are, drifting toward 2026, and the train still hasn’t appeared. Instead, the markets whistle cheerfully past, as if to mock the bond ETFs I bought—TLT, TLH—waiting patiently in my portfolio like umbrellas I insist on carrying despite the endlessly sunny weather. iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) S&P 500 (.SPX) Still, the financial world often produces its prophecies, thick with

🚨 2026 Outlook: Which Prediction Will Break First? Is Morgan Stanley Too Confident? Morgan Stanley just dropped its 2026 outlook — and at first glance, it looks polished, optimistic, and almost too neatly packaged. Strong policy support. Resilient U.S. economy. AI-driven capex leading risk assets. Corporate earnings staying solid. But if you’ve survived more than one market cycle, you know this: Long-term forecasts rarely break at the strongest link — they break at the weakest one. And in this outlook… there are several weak links hiding beneath the surface. Let’s break it down — with clarity, skepticism, and realism. --- 1️⃣ Policy Support: The Most Overstated “Positive” in the Report Morgan Stanley assumes policy stability lasting through 2026. But look at the real world: • Global sovere

Overall reading of the 2026 projections Morgan Stanley’s thesis is built on three pillars: continued policy accommodation, sustained earnings strength, and a supportive micro backdrop driven by AI-related capital expenditure. Broadly, these elements are plausible given current structural trends. However, the degree of certainty implied by such forecasts should always be treated with caution, especially once the horizon extends beyond twelve months. --- What is most likely to come true 1. AI-related capital expenditure will remain a dominant force This is the most credible component. Demand for compute, model training, data infrastructure and edge deployment is likely to continue. Cloud hyperscalers, semiconductor firms, network providers and AI-driven software ecosystems are still in the e

⭐ 2026 Outlook: Which Morgan Stanley Prediction Will Break First? A Big-Picture Take on What’s Realistic — and What’s Wishful Thinking Morgan Stanley’s 2026 outlook paints a constructive macro backdrop: policy support remains strong, corporate earnings keep surprising, and risk assets outperform as the U.S. leads global growth. But which parts of this narrative are robust — and which could unravel? Here’s my view 👇 ⸻ ✅ Most Likely to Come True: U.S. Outperformance & Earnings Resilience No matter the noise, one constant theme over the past decade has been the structural strength of the U.S. economy: • AI-driven capex is not slowing — hyperscalers, defense-tech and semis are still in the early innings. • Productivity growth is quietly accelerating, just as MS highlighted. • Balance sheet

If you’re considering buying the dip in NVIDIA (NVDA) or Amazon (AMZN), it really comes down to your risk tolerance and investment goals. NVIDIA is a leader in GPUs and AI chips, with enormous growth potential due to the AI boom, but its stock is highly volatile and priced for high growth, meaning it can swing dramatically on earnings or news. Amazon, on the other hand, is a more diversified and stable company, dominant in e-commerce and cloud computing (AWS). While its growth is slower than NVIDIA’s, its stock tends to be steadier and less susceptible to extreme swings. Essentially, NVDA offers higher potential upside but comes with higher risk, whereas AMZN provides steadier growth with moderate risk. For many investors, a balanced approach—buying smaller amounts of both—can capture grow

If Nvidia disappeared tomorrow, Google would be fine. The same can’t be said for others. Google’s built its own parallel universe to Nvidia’s hardware stack. That said, I’m not saying Nvidia is obsolete or in danger. Nvidia is still very much in the AI race, and Google won’t stop buying its chips. Why? Because Google Cloud needs to capture market share. Clients still want torent Nvidia chips for AI compute. If Google Cloud only offered TPUs, clients would leave for AWS or Azure. Google isn’t going to let that happen. Nvidia’s dominance isn’t going anywhere soon. Companies still want Nvidia chips because they’re still the most powerful AI chips on Earth. Google’s TPUs are designed for cost-efficiency, not raw power. Depending on the task—if you need the absolute fastest training time possib

🌟🌟🌟Morgan Stanley's 2026 global strategy report presents an optimistic view, forecasting that risk assets will lead. This is supported by factors like AI capital expenditure & aligned global policies. The prediction likely to come true is AI capital expenditure driving growth. This is already happening as tech companies are heavily investing in data centers, cloud infrastructure and advanced chips, thus creating an engine for economic & earnings growth.  This trend is likely to continue in 2026 & beyond. However the prediction of a rare alignment of monetary & fiscal policies could go completely wrong. Political considerations, domestic economic pressures and divergent inflation trends across countries, could lead to divergent policies.  This could create volatil

I think Morgan Stanley’s predictions are too bullish. While I expect the next year to continue to rally forward, I don’t think it is as rosy as painted. No one can be completely sure of what events are going to play out next year and the world is increasingly contentious and fragmented with each more obviously looking out for their own interest. I do think that equities will outperform credit and government bonds as for most years and so most likely to come true. Earnings reports have been strong and definitely many expect rate cuts to happen next year as the Fed chair changes and is expected to align with trump’s wish of rapid rate cuts. This will be significant in driving the US stocks rally and AI definitely will be centre stage as the world capitalise on its potential and with the ra

I think Morgan Stanley’s 2026 outlook is upbeat but still grounded. The idea that fiscal, monetary, and deregulation policies are aligning is rare, and with AI capex still early, U.S. equities do have a strong foundation. Overall, I agree that risk assets — especially U.S. tech — could continue leading next year. The forecast I find most convincing is U.S. equity outperformance, supported by earnings momentum and policy tailwinds. The part I’m less confident about is the assumption that AI spending will keep rising smoothly — any slowdown in data-center financing or capex could hit both credit and equities at the same time. My own 2026 call: AI capex stays high but becomes more selective, the S&P 500 likely posts mid-single-digit gains, and Japan quietly surprises on the upside thanks

I personally feel these predictions are slanted more on the bullish side - perhaps even turbo-bullish in some respects like fixed income staying attractive coupled with high equity growth. For this to happen, we would need all three to materialise: Favorable Policy Mix, Corporate Earnings Growth & Improved Domestic Demand & Supply too. The forecast most likely to come true is the continued investment and productivity gains related to AI. The forecast that could be wrong is of sustained, moderate global economic growth and gradual disinflation - with Trump around, we can guarantee this won't happen easily.

The idea that Bitcoin reaches $300k by 2026 seems the most likely to fail. Without a major global liquidity cycle or new institutional wave, that level is too aggressive.”

Haha, so AI will lead the way, AI takes centre stage, but watch out for things going sideways in the AI industry and affecting the economy. It's like an addict unable to stop themselves. *Sniffling and scratching all over* "Sir, do you have more of that AI powder, I'm having withdrawal symptoms!" On to the main topic, my agreed prediction (for the metal dominate energy point): I think gold will indeed dominate. It has done really well ever since covid struck. In the past there were significant ups and downs, but now it's mostly a sustained climb.

my thinking is that most will still be risk averse, the status quo of small gains over time acting as stability will win out. ai is still on baby steps a paradigm shift in computing is imminent as always but this may upset all our predictions hoping we all see the opportunities and avoid fomo⭐🐯