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GOOG Surges On Q1 Earning: 3 Anxieties Solved

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ earnings jumped 5% after the bell, mainly to address three market anxieties:The impact of AI on the advertising business is not reflected in the results, the loss of market share is really excessive concernCapital expenditure expenditure maintenance, AI competition continues, maintain the guidance of hardware manufacturers $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ E-commerce advertising will have an impact, but too much billing, DMA antitrust case has a program and has been accrued, the extent of which remains to be seen, and not as pessimistic as the market billingPerformance and market feedbackAnnounced strong FY2025 Q1 results th
GOOG Surges On Q1 Earning: 3 Anxieties Solved

Should I Sell GOLD?

Gold is really too fierce for a while, the past year directly up 50%, sitting on the "most beautiful boy" throne.In the face of this strong performance, has been 3300 U.S. dollars / ounce price, the price of the yuan close to 1100 yuan, many people began to entangle an old problem - is it time to sell gold?Unlike stocks, bonds can rely on PE, price-earnings ratio, interest rate pivot, CPI and other indicators to assess the "fair value" of gold, gold is a hard currency without income, valuation standards, to put it bluntly, is to look at the market atmosphere and macro expectations.From the historical point of view, the gold price has been in the high, but not to the limit!Historically it's not uncommon for gold to rise 2-4 times after a few key breakouts.Like 1972, 1978, 2008, these time p
Should I Sell GOLD?

NAND+Logic Boom! Lam's Conservative Outlook with Long-Term High Target​

$Lam Research(LRCX)$ 2025Q3 Earnings Outperform, Revenue and Earnings Significantly Beat Expectations, Operational Efficiency and Gross Margin Improvement Significantly, Capital Expenditures Accelerate Layout for the Future, and the Company is Optimistic for Subsequent Quarters.Core viewDual-engine growth: NAND technology upgrade (+40% QoQ) and logic chip advanced process (foundry revenue +15% YoY) together drive performance beyond expectation.Gross margin resilience: supply chain management capability is highlighted, but may face $200M-$300M/QoQ inflationary cost pressure in the future.Geo-balancing: China market revenue share is stable, showing the company's ability to flexibly deal with export control.Guidance caution: 25Q4 revenue guidance of
NAND+Logic Boom! Lam's Conservative Outlook with Long-Term High Target​

Recession-Proof? ServiceNow Strong Q1, Raises Guidance, ​​AI Pays Off!

$ServiceNow(NOW)$ Strong Q1 FY2025 Earnings Performance Drives Shares Significantly Higher After HoursCore InsightsGrowth resilience highlighted: management raised guidance despite cautious IT spending environment, reflecting deep product moat (RPO +24% YoY to $18B).AI commercialization speeding up: from "technology story" to actual revenue generation, 2025 may be the inflection point of AI contribution.Strong upgrade guidance: current demand resilience exceeds expectations, customers regard ServiceNow as a "must-have" rather than an optional tool.If the economic downturn leads to a contraction of corporate IT budgets, it may affect the pace of expansion of small and medium-sized customers (current revenue concentration: Top 50 customers account fo
Recession-Proof? ServiceNow Strong Q1, Raises Guidance, ​​AI Pays Off!

​​Musk’s U-Turn: “Less DOGE, More Tesla” – Will $25K EV Be the Savior?​

$ Tesla (TSLA)$ reported Q1 2025 earnings after the bell on April 22, 2025, kicking off the year with a double miss on revenue and profit.Not only did this earnings report mark the worst earnings slide since Q2 2022, management withdrew its full-year growth guidance.However, investors were also heartened by Elon Musk's change in attitude, saying he would reduce his hours at the government department DOGE starting in May and return his focus to Tesla.Markets in the days before the earnings report on the violent shock, the day before the earnings report fell more than 5%, in the case of the market plunge in the week before the earnings report to the options implied volatility also once reached 170%, IV Percentage reached 98%.The actual earnings report
​​Musk’s U-Turn: “Less DOGE, More Tesla” – Will $25K EV Be the Savior?​

NVIDIA's Prisoner's Dilemma

The U.S. Congress has launched an investigation into the possible export of controlled AI chips from NVIDIA to Chinese company DeepSeek through Singapore, an event that has pushed the complex technology game between the U.S. and China, export control policies, and corporate response strategies to the forefront of public opinion.Last week Jen-Hsun Huang came to China to visit, the specifications are quite high, the old Huang took off his leather jacket and put on a suit, it is obvious that he cares very much.So these two days there are rumors: NVDA will cooperate with DeepSeek to develop AI chips for China ......A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers sent a letter to Jen-Hsun Huang, asking him to explain the reason for the flow of chips to DeepSeek, whi
NVIDIA's Prisoner's Dilemma

Liquidity Crisis:Yale Endowment Model In Trouble

In recent years, the endowment funds of top U.S. colleges and universities have frequently attracted attention due to their huge private equity exposure. 2024, Yale University announced that it would sell $6 billion in private assets (15% of its endowment fund) through the secondary market, and Harvard University is also facing liquidity pressures in the context of a crisis in its tax-exempt status.The sell-off storm not only exposes the inherent contradictions of the "Yale model", but may also become a trigger to burst the bubble of the private equity market, triggering a systemic risk comparable to the subprime mortgage crisis.Motivation for the sell-off: the flaws of the Yale model in the volatile gaming marketIvy League endowments have long played the role of "privileged players" in th
Liquidity Crisis:Yale Endowment Model In Trouble

NFLX Q1: Ads and content are key to "safe heaven"

$Netflix(NFLX)$ Q1 earnings announcement, profitability continues to rise, confirming the fundamentals of the good stone, of which advertising and content investment is still the key, but also makes NFLX become the tariffs under the chaos of the few counter-trend "risk aversion" of the technology stocks.Performance and market feedback1. Core data performanceRevenue: $10.543bn ($10.5bn expected, +12.5% yoy); gross margin 50.08% (41.66% expected, +8.4pct beat), mainly benefiting from price hikes + higher share of advertising packages; operating margin 31.75% (28.2% higher than expected, exceeding 360pct yoy)Revenue among different regions: $4.62bn (+9.3% YoY) in the US & Canada, lower than the expected $4.68bn; $3.41bn (+15% yoy) in EMEA, higher
NFLX Q1: Ads and content are key to "safe heaven"

BIG TECH WEEKLY | E-commerce ads shrinks as Meta's guidance in danger

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Trump to fire Powell? Earnings season coming with tariff desensitization!Although the Trump administration is still in the tariffs from time to time "demon", but the market after last week's volatility has been desensitized, but now trading is more "recession expectations", or the extent of the blow to corporate profits, consumer confidence.In the face of the worsening economic outlook, the European Central Bank on April 17 to complete the seventh round of interest rate cuts, and warned that the escalation of international trade tensions is a serious drag on the eurozone recovery process.The Fed showed a very different rhythm, Powell reiterated the need to judge the policy path based on sufficient data, triggering a harsh rebuke from Trump.Prev
BIG TECH WEEKLY | E-commerce ads shrinks as Meta's guidance in danger

Dual Guidance, UAL declares profit warning but still beats?

Market volatility from tariffs also poses a challenge to the 2025 outlook for U.S. airlines.Despite a strong start to the year and optimistic forecasts, the U.S. airline industry is now facing significant headwinds due to economic uncertainty, rising inflation and shifting consumer behavior.While the long-term growth trajectory through 2030 remains optimistic, immediate concerns about declining passenger traffic and spending have prompted airlines to implement capacity adjustments for the upcoming quarter. $United Continental(UAL)$ reported first quarter earnings after the bell on April 15, 2025, and the company delivered its best quarterly financial performance in nearly five years, despite the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment.Market F
Dual Guidance, UAL declares profit warning but still beats?

What Trump wants is on Mount Rushmore

Over the past few weeks, the U.S. stock market as a whole has been extremely sensitive, and the market's reaction to surprises has been "amplified". The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has swung more than 10% in a single day, and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ has rallied more than 12%.With expectations surrounding Trump's tariffs recurring, the week's action could be described as a "collection of risk events" from years past.Looking at the timeline of the overall U.S. stock market pullback in 2025.The initial decline was triggered by a rapid pullback in a group of 2024 overbought momentum stocks ( $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$
What Trump wants is on Mount Rushmore

BIG TECH WEEKLY | Discussion On "Tariff Victims" of Big-Techs; What Does Recession Sell Put Mean?

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Recession’s back?Market volatility due to tariffs in effect has been no less than the 2020 period, in addition to the stock market's Monday plunge, identified by Trump as a "short-term sacrifice", the volatility of U.S. debt may be more concerned about the market (elevated risk of recession)?At present, after the first three days of this week's fermentation and "withdrawal", the short-term risk of tariffs has basically been cleared, and how the end of the future, basically in the current market has been Price-in the range, so it will not be too sensitive.But overall, the risk of the medium-term still can not be ignored, even if the final landing is 10% tariffs, the economic growth rate may slow down from Q2, embodied in the corporate earnings r
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Discussion On "Tariff Victims" of Big-Techs; What Does Recession Sell Put Mean?

BUY THE DIP? Big-Techs Are Still The Best Choice

U.S. stocks saw a big rally at the 18-hour limit and produced the third-largest one-day gain since World War II, with $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ rallying 12% in a single day on April 9th. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rallied 9.52%, recovering ground lost since April 3rd.As the weight of the U.S. technology stocks have also become the biggest beneficiaries of the rebound, except for $Apple(AAPL)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ have outperformed the broader market.And these two manufacturing companies are among the biggest beneficiaries of globalization.Looking at the performance over the past 5 days, $NVIDIA
BUY THE DIP? Big-Techs Are Still The Best Choice

Tariff is not even remotely feasible in US

Has it ever occurred to you that if you suddenly introduce sudden tariffs that vary greatly from country to country, you will face multiple practical obstacles at the customs operational level?Feedback from the current point of view, the actual possibility of landing almost 0, including several aspects:Technical bottleneck: classification identification and physical limitations of origin verificationComplexity of commodity classificationThe difference in duty rates between medical device parts and automotive parts may be as high as 30%, but it is difficult for the existing customs system to achieve accurate identification.For example, mixed-function electromechanical products (e.g., medical device housings containing sensors) may involve multiple tax code classifications at the same time,
Tariff is not even remotely feasible in US

Duan Yongping just bought the dip on US Techs and Tencent, Again!

An institutional investor Duan Yongping just showes his “buy the dip” on April 7, most of the transaction are in options (sell naked put).In summery, the nominal value of the underlying surpass 400 million U.S. dollars, option premium is more than 30 million U.S. dollarsSpecificallyUnderlying involved include: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ and $TENCENT(00700)$ in Hongkong.Option dates: from this week's April 11 expiration, to this month's April 25 expiration, May expiration, and all the way to January 2026 expiration, w
Duan Yongping just bought the dip on US Techs and Tencent, Again!

The Impact of Tariff Policies on US Mag 7

Big tech companies as weight, naturally guides the main fluctuations of the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ April 7 opening by the "small essay" impact of the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ appearedBurst pull, but the second half of the transaction between the long and short sides are evenly matched, relatively "balanced", mainly because of the two days of tariff impact seems to be undecided.At present, both the long and short sides of the two main lines of logic in each other's influence:Downward pressure on performance (favorable).Mainly supply chain cost surge, profit compression (competitiveness decline), of which the supply chain transfer is not only costly, long cycle, but also face future policy changes again.May become an "ex
The Impact of Tariff Policies on US Mag 7

BIG TECH WEEKLY | AI Data Crash Due To Oversupply? NVDA's Strong Support At 110

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Divergence on US stock marketQ1 of the US stock market experienced rain, so "whether it is a medium-term intervention point" has become a hot topic of discussion.Policies favor the real economy over capital markets, while "soft data" continues to weaken.The core differences and market focus on the direction of the market are: foreign capital flows (Goldman Sachs believes that foreign capital, especially European funds, will continue to inflow, UBS warned that the funds may return to the local market), sustainability of the rebound (Morgan based on the technical aspects of the short-term bullish, but medium-term by the impact of the policy, the Mo emphasized that the fundamentals of the rebound of the limitation of the space of the weak), positi
BIG TECH WEEKLY | AI Data Crash Due To Oversupply? NVDA's Strong Support At 110

The Biggest Loser of MSFT scraps data centers

Friday's upcoming IPO of $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ may be the biggest victim of Microsoft's order withdrawal:Microsoft accounts for 62% of CoreWeave's revenue, and its shrinking order book is a direct hit to the company's revenue base.The company's debt burden is currently as high as $8 billion (equivalent to 30% of the IPO valuation), and the pressure on debt servicing will further exacerbate cash flow constraintsThe aggressive expansion model, which has consumed $7.1 billion in cash over the past two years, is unsustainable in the wake of divestment by large customers, and limited capex capacity could lead to stalled arithmetic infrastructure upgradesAccording to Faber, what's the point of Coreweave's business model?Their capex and associated depr
The Biggest Loser of MSFT scraps data centers

Divergences On US MarketTrends

Core divergencesForeign Capital Flows: Goldman Sachs believes foreign capital (especially from Europe) will continue to flow; UBS warns of a possible return of capital to local markets.Rally Sustainability: Morgan Stanley is short-term bullish based on technicals; JPM emphasizes that weak fundamentals will limit the room for a rally.Economic cycle positioning: Deutsche Bank historical data suggests that the current pullback or non-bear market precursor; JPM believes that the risk of stagflation is more similar to a structural crisis.Goldman Sachs: Foreign Capital Supports U.S. Stocks, Long-Term Growth Logic Unchanged $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ Core view: foreign capital (especially European investors) will continue to add to U.S. stocks and drive the marke
Divergences On US MarketTrends

How's Kuaishou 2024Q4 Performance?

$KUAISHOU-W(01024)$ 2024Q4 results validate the effectiveness of "technology-driven + ecological synergy" strategy:AI-enabled advertising and e-commerce efficiency, narrowing losses in overseas business signifies that the model is running through, and the commercialization of AI can open the second growth curve.The current valuation reflects the market's expectation of its long-term growth, but we need to be vigilant about the risks of slowing user growth and intensifying competition in the industry.Investors are advised to focus on tracking the conversion efficiency of AI technology, the repurchase rate of e-commerce users and the profitability of overseas markets.PerformanceCore Data HighlightsQ4 revenue of RMB35.4bn (+8.7% yoy), slightly excee
How's Kuaishou 2024Q4 Performance?

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