The Gambler’s FallacyThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ delivered gains of 26% in 2023, 25% in 2024, and 18% in 2025. After such a strong run, it is natural for investors to expect weaker returns in 2026. This mindset reflects the classic gambler’s fallacy—the belief that strong past performance must be followed by mean reversion.At this stage of the cycle, bearish arguments also tend to sound more persuasive, and investor sentiment often turns cautious. However, the bull market has continued to show resilience. The ongoing AI-driven transformation remains a powerful structural tailwind and is likely to continue providing support into 2026.2026 RoadmapOur base-case scenario sees the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ending 2026 a

Bad: High Capex: Capex increased 110% YoY in Q3 2025, or 105% in the first three quarters of this year. High Estimated Capex: Meta expects 2026 capital expenditure (Capex) to increase significantly. The company raised the lower end of its Capex outlook for 2025 by $4 billion, now ranging from $70 billion to $72 billion. Lower Operating Income Growth (+18% YoY): Revenue rose 26% YoY, but expenses grew 32% YoY — expenses are rising faster than revenue.   Good:             Meta recorded a one-time, non-cash income tax charge of nearly USD 16 B under President Donald Trump’s  One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) fiscal policy, which reduced its quarterly net profit to USD 2.71 B. Without this one-time burden, net profit would

Quick Thoughts on $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Earnings: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ nvdaQ2 FY2026 Results:Data Center Revenue: $41.1 billion vs. $41.3 billion estimated — a slight miss of 0.5%EPS: $1.05 vs. $1.01 estimated — a soft beat of 3.9%Total Revenue: $46.74 billion vs. $46.07 billion estimated — a soft beat of 1.5%Q3 FY2026 Guidance:Revenue: $54.0 billion vs. $53.4 billion estimated — guidance assumes no China chip salesGross Margin (GAAP / non-GAAP): 73.3% / 73.5%Nvidia fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading on a modest earnings beat and a muted outlook.Q3 FY2026 guidance is uninspiring as it excludes H20 chip sales to China. There could be upside to earnings if Nvidia secures approval to sell newer or H20 chips into China

CME fedwatch: one month ago vs now：7 cuts in 2026?🧐You might ask: will that mean economy will be bad? or simply just by Trump replace interest friendly Fed chair when JP step down?“I think they will bring down the rate cuts expectation sooner. cuz stock market is not pricing in this optimism, But, if 7 cuts means fed knows sth that we dont know, 7 cuts will cause stock market to break.”Some charts below shows Why people are predicting a bond sell off.Disclaimer:Tiger Brokers (Singapore) Pte Ltd (herein "Tiger Brokers") may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other transactions with the issuer of the products referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effec

Hedging Products:Inverse & Leverage ETFs: $ProShares Short S&P 500(SH)$ , $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ , $ProShares Short QQQ(PSQ)$ , $ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30(SDOW)$ ‘Single Stock ETFs： $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ , $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ , $T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTU)$ , $Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF(MSTX)$ , $GraniteShares 2x Long C

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ declined by 0.12% and 0.01%, respectively, last week.Major market movers included: $Apple(AAPL)$ (+2.3%), $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (+1.3%), $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ (+3.8%), $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ (+10.4%), $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ (+27%), $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ (–4.6%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (–6.9%), and $Visa(V)$ (–4.6%).Key economic eve

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell by 2.58% and 2.38%, respectively, last week.Major movers included: $Intuit(INTU)$ (+7.4%), $Alphabet(GOOG)$ (+1.4%), $Philip Morris(PM)$ (+4.6%), $Procter & Gamble(PG)$ (+1.6%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (−7.6%), $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (−3.0%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (−2.2%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (−5.8%), and

U.S. Market Insights (May 19–23): Rally Appears Overdone for NowThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ gained 5.33% and 6.87%, respectively, last week, driven by strong performance in mega-cap tech stocks.Key movers last week included strong gains from $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (+16.1%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (+17.3%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (+6.5%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (+6.5%), and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (+3.7%), while $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ (−23.3%),

$9.2 trillion of U.S. government debt will mature in 2025, with $6.5 trillion maturing in June alone.The U.S. government will need to roll over (refinance) a large portion of this debt, essentially borrowing new money to repay maturing bonds.Trump’s Pressure for Rate CutsTrump wants the Fed to cut interest rates, hoping this will lower government borrowing costs (bond yields).The aim is to minimize interest expenses on the newly issued debt in June 2025.But Fed Cuts Don’t Guarantee Lower Long-Term YieldsFed rate cuts help more on the short end of the yield curve; long-end yields may remain sticky or even rise if inflation expectations stay elevated or market confidence in U.S. fiscal credibility weakens.Investors in long-duration Treasuries demand a higher yield if they fear inflation or d

Source: CNBC, 26 April 2025Here’s how the $Alphabet(GOOG)$ did in 1Q 2025:Year-on-year (YoY) growth in revenue and operating income has been uneven.In 1Q 2025, revenue grew 12% YoY, while operating income rose 20.16%. However, both figures reflect a slowdown compared to 1Q 2024, when revenue and operating income grew 15.41% and 46.26%, respectively.Operating income has maintained YoY growth of over 20% for seven consecutive quarters, though the 1Q 2025 figure marks the slowest increase during that period. However, Operating Margin reached 34% in the latest quarter — the highest level in five years.Both gross margin and operating margin improved in 1Q 2025, rising to 59.7% and 33.92%, up from 58.14% and 31.63% in 1Q 2024.That said, operating margi

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose by 4.6% and 6.43% respectively last week.Major market movers included $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (+9.4%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (+6.2%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (+6.5%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (+9.5%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (+18.1%), $Broadcom(AVGO)$ (+12.5%), $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ (-7.8%), $Procter & Gamble(PG)$ (-5%),

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunged 9.05% and 9.75% respectively last week, due to the sweeping U.S. tariffs imposed.Major market movers included $Apple(AAPL)$ (-13.6%), $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-14%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (-11%), $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ (-11.3%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-5%), $Broadcom(AVGO)$ (-13.5%), UnitedHealth (+1.8%), $TJX Companies(TJX)$ (+3.3%),

The way the tariff rates are calculated is downright absurd U.S. appeared to have divided the trade deficit by imports from a given country to arrive at tariff rates for individual countries. For example, U.S. goods trade deficit with China / total US import from China = $295 billion / 439 billion = 67%  Trump may want trade negotiation The base 10 percent tariffs will take effect on April 5, while the higher reciprocal rates (above 10 percent) will come into effect on April 9. Trump opens door for trade negotiation by saying, ““Likewise to all of the foreign presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, ambassadors and everyone else who will soon be calling to ask for exemptions from these tariffs, I say, terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers. Don't manipulate your currencies

The steeper-than-expected sweeping tariffs imposed by the US may weigh on Asian equities in the short term, as they dampen the regional growth outlook and raise the risk of retaliatory tariffs from affected Asian countries. The Asia-Pacific region, characterized by its export-driven economies, is expected to face headwinds if global trade activity slows. Chinese-owned factories may also need to reconsider their relocation strategies, as Southeast Asian countries—including Vietnam (46%) and Cambodia (49%)—are also subject to higher US tariffs. China China now faces a hefty 34% reciprocal tariff on exports to the US, in addition to the existing 20% tariff. Although improving corporate earnings, rising investor sentiment, attractive valuations, AI-driven productivity gains, and government sti