To The Moon

$IBIT 20260617 37.0 PUT$ Another bet. Buying because cheap on big news day. Don't follow.

$MU 20260918 1050.0 CALL$ Sell to close this call that was opened yesterday for a small profit. Trying to reduce open call positions going into the long weekend.  

$Apple(AAPL)$ 三百元以下應不算是貴 本世紀最偉大行政總裁——蒂姆·庫克 在全球企業領袖之中，蒂姆·庫克足以稱得上本世紀最偉大的行政總裁。他臨危受命接掌蘋果，面對賈伯斯留下的傳奇高度，不僅守住基業，更以破舊立新的膽識，將這家科技巨頭推向全新巔峯。 庫克最令人敬佩的，是他敢於推翻前任既定路線，堅持自己的經營理念。賈伯斯時代的蘋果堅持不派息、不回購，將現金全部留作研發。庫克上任後果斷改變策略，在公司發展與回報股東之間取得平衡。2012年恢復派息至今，蘋果連續十多年上調股息，逐步邁向「股息貴族」；同時大規模回購股份，規模屢創紀錄，成為業界「回購皇者」，徹底打破科技股高負債、低迴報的刻板印象。 他擁有極其穩健的財務格局與經營智慧。在他帶領下，蘋果維持現金充沛、財務結構堅固的體質，兼具科技創新實力與消費巨頭的穩定性。這種高度確定性，打動了向來不輕易投資科技股的巴菲特，讓蘋果成為波克夏最重倉的資產——這是價值投資界對其管理能力的最高認可。 任內，蘋果市值由數千億美元躍升至數萬億美元，穩居全球最具價值公司。庫克強化供應鏈優勢，拓展服務生態，推出Apple Watch、AirPods等關鍵產品，讓蘋果生態更完整、競爭力更強。 庫克不只是守成者，更是開創者。他敢於改革、精於資本配置、專注長期價值，以穩健與魄力重新定義蘋果。這樣的領導力與成就，讓他當之無愧，成為本世紀最偉大的行政總裁。！

The Maturity Wall Nobody Wants to Price Most investors analyse Strategy through the lens of Bitcoin. They debate adoption curves, treasury accumulation and where the cryptocurrency might trade next year. I increasingly think that misses the more interesting question. The real investment debate is not whether Bitcoin rises or falls. It is whether Strategy’s capital structure can continue functioning if capital markets become less accommodating. Strategy has evolved into something unique: a company whose future is increasingly determined by liability management rather than software growth. The market remains obsessed with the asset side of the balance sheet. I am far more interested in the liabilities. The premium powers more than most investors realise That is where the next major investmen

SpaceX Is Not Just Rockets. It May Be The Biggest AI Cloud Too Starlink was the core. AI cloud may be the next pillar. Investors used to think $Space Exploration Technologies Corp(SPCX)$   was mainly a rockets and Starlink story. That was fair based on historical revenue. Starlink was the company's main revenue engine in 2025 and helped prove that SpaceX could build a large commercial business beyond launches. But the forward-looking picture has changed. Anthropic and $Alphabet(GOOG)$   could give SpaceX roughly $2.17 billion of monthly AI compute revenue if both contracts fully ramp. That equals about $26 billion of implied annualized revenue. That is la

A first sell rating rarely ends a momentum story by itself. What matters is whether the narrative keeps attracting new buyers faster than early investors take profits. For SpaceX, the bull case is straightforward: dominance in launch, rapid growth in Starlink, and the possibility that Starship unlocks entirely new markets. Bears argue that at current prices, investors are paying today for many years of future success, leaving little room for execution mistakes. The fact that shares held above $200 despite a public sell call suggests sentiment remains extremely strong. However, sharp intraday reversals often indicate volatility is increasing and conviction is becoming more divided. If I were already sitting on large gains, I would be more inclined to trim gradually and lock in some profits

The answer depends on whether you believe this is a temporary rotation or the start of a longer leadership change. My base case would be that this looks more like a rotation than the end of the AI theme. AI infrastructure demand has not disappeared simply because semiconductor stocks corrected. Historically, the strongest secular growth themes often experience multiple 20-30% drawdowns while remaining intact. That said, when a trade becomes crowded, reducing concentration risk is sensible. If AI hardware has grown into an outsized portion of a portfolio, trimming some exposure and reallocating toward quality financials, industrials, or healthcare names can improve diversification without abandoning the theme. For new capital, I would be more inclined to buy quality AI leaders on weakness t

If I had to choose between holding the leader and rotating into weaker names, I would generally prefer holding the leader. A 2.4% decline in NVIDIA versus much larger drops in AMD, Marvell, Intel, and leveraged semiconductor ETFs suggests relative strength. When risk appetite fades, capital often concentrates in the highest-quality companies with the strongest balance sheets, margins, and competitive positions. The more important question is time horizon: If you're a short-term trader, this kind of sector rotation and volatility argues for tighter risk management and potentially reducing exposure. If you're a long-term investor, a 10-20% swing in semiconductor stocks is not unusual. The key thesis is whether AI infrastructure spending remains intact. What would concern me more than a singl

Microsoft Is Down 30% From Its Peak, Yet Smart Money Is Stepping In.  Recent Performance and Valuation $Microsoft(MSFT)$   reached an all-time high of $551.05 in July 2025 before declining approximately 36% to a low of $355.51 by March 2026. The stock currently trades near $394, representing a roughly 30% drop from its peak and returning to early 2024 levels. This selloff appeared to stem from a combination of factors, including investor concerns over a $19 billion annual artificial intelligence capital expenditure program, which marked a 49% year-over-year increase. Additional pressure came from a major Xbox restructuring and second-quarter Azure growth (Q2 FY2026, reported January 2026) that missed s

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$  機會到了 堅定看好TQQQ的核心邏輯：不押個股，只信人類進步｜SQQQ為何必輸？ 投資的底層信念，我始終錨定「人類追求進步的本能」。這篇精簡文，濃縮我看好TQQQ的核心邏輯、實操策略，以及為何SQQQ註定是長期輸家。 一、核心信念：納指100，是人類科技進步的「時代門票」 人類對效率、創新的追求刻在基因裡，而納指100不是簡單的科技股指，是一套能自我更新、自我糾錯的系統——動態淘汰失敗者、納入新贏家，匯聚全球頂尖人才與資本，其成分股每股盈餘年化增長13.6%，長期走出「創新高、修正、再創新高」的上行趨勢。我買的不是單一公司，是參與人類科技進步的資格。 二、投資工具：TQQQ，信念的「三倍放大器」 TQQQ是納指100三倍槓桿ETF，並非短線投機，而是我對科技長期趨勢的堅定表态。自2010年成立以來，其平均年化回報達39.3%，過去五年累計上漲約100%，2023年單年暴漲198%，槓桿的複利效應驚人。 我清楚其風險：每日重置帶來的波動損耗、極端行情下的深度回撤（2022年暴跌79%）、0.84%的高費率，但風險與回報併存，正視風險才是成熟投資的前提。 三、投資策略：堅定信念，靈活執行 核心原則：信念不變，執行靈活。具體操作：分段吸納入場，避免一注孤擲；緊盯宏觀與市場情緒，隨勢調整；預留安全邊際，確保極端行情下「活下去」。 誤區糾正：「長期持有」不等於「買入不聞不問」，主動管理、定期檢視，才能利用高波動降低持倉成本，把握科技股階梯式上行的機會。 四、SQQQ：與人類進步對抗，天生輸家 SQQQ是TQQQ的反向工具，每日三倍放空

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$  $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  🔴🔴🔴 AI Giants Under Pressure As Wall Street Reprices Risk 🔴🔴🔴 📉 I’m watching a significant shift in market positioning today as some of the largest AI beneficiaries face aggressive options activity and renewed downside pressure. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT are all under pressure, with defensive positioning building: 🔴 $GOOGL puts lead calls by $5M+ 🔴 $META puts lead calls by $10M+ 🔴 $AMZN puts lead calls by $7M+ 🔴 $MSFT puts lead calls by $6M+ The important detail is not simply that these stocks are falling. It is that traders are paying for downside protection after one of the stronges

$ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$  終於可以較低價入貨作長期持有。 我持續買入TQQQ的理由 一、核心論點：十六年分割八次的「隱性股皇」 坊間有一種說法：這類三倍槓桿ETF波動太大，只適合短線操作，不宜長期持有。 我曾經也篤信這個說法，直到完成一項研究後，發現了一個驚人的事實：一眾專家不斷看淡、不鼓勵客戶長揸的TQQQ，竟然比相對穩健的QQQ更值得長期持有。 支撐我這一論點的，從不是臆測與主觀感受，而是十六年間八次分割的真實數據記錄。 值得強調的是，TQQQ每次分割時，股價均處於自然高位（最低也在一百美元以上），相關機構為避免投資門檻過高、影響流通量，才主動進行分拆，並非為了分拆而分拆。「兩年倍翻的隱性股皇」這一稱號，TQQQ當之無愧。 若十六年前買入一股TQQQ，期間不做任何操作，今天你將持有256股。（按：TQQQ歷史分割包括7次1拆2及1次1拆3，若嚴格計算，初始1股經分割後實際股數會超過256股，此處以2^8簡化說明複利效果） 這不是魔法，而是複利的強大力量。TQQQ用十六年的歷史清晰告訴我們：它不僅不是「不宜長揸」，反而是愈長揸、愈強大的「隱性股皇」。 我離經叛道、直言不諱，不是為了「語不驚人死不休」，更不是為了反駁專家來抬高自己，核心原因只有一個——數字不會騙人。 二、最新發現：月供TQQQ的隱藏優勢 如果你對TQQQ或股票投資還沒有太多概念，但仍想參與其中，我有一個鮮為人知的祕訣分享給你： 你可以考慮開一個「月供股票」計劃（需接受風險評估）。 根據老虎證券的數據顯示，月供計劃的長期回

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  下一波應輪到炒特斯拉與space x合併 SpaceX與特斯拉：核心優勢、成長可能性、雙方協同價值 ## 一、SpaceX（太空商業巨頭） ### （一）核心好處/競爭優勢 1. **壓倒性發射成本壁壘** 獵鷹9號每公斤軌道成本約2,700美元，遠低於傳統航天3,000–50,000美元；星舰成熟後可壓到100–200美元/公斤，兩級完全可回收、單次載重100噸，一日可多次發射，徹底顛覆航天定價體系。 2. **星鏈Starlink穩定現金牛** 截至2026年Q1部署近9,600顆低軌衛星，2025年營收113.87億美元、經營利潤44.23億美元；覆蓋全球偏遠地區、海上、飛機、行動手機直連衛星，千萬級付費用戶，是公司持續研發火箭的資金來源。 3. **全球獨有的完整太空產業鏈** 唯一民企同時掌握：可回收運載火箭、大規模低軌衛星量產、載人太空飛行、地面終端、太空AI算力；拿下NASA載人、月球登陸合約，壟斷美國商業載人市場。 4. **AI新增長曲線（xAI整合後）** 已併購xAI，擁有Grok大模型；搭建吉瓦級地面AI算力集群，規劃2028年太空軌道AI衛星，可對外輸出高毛利算力服務，客戶包含Google、Anthropic等巨頭。 5. **獨特快速迭代工程文化** 矽谷軟體式試錯開發，不像傳統航天十年磨一型；星舰多輪爆炸測試快速修正，產線自動化量產，研發速度遠超波音、洛克希德馬丁。 ### （二）未來成長可能性 1. **短期（1–2年）** 星舰V3成熟量產，大規模擴充星鏈第二代衛星；

$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$  趁大市回落吸納愛股 RGTI（Rigetti Computing）不適合一般散戶盲目長線持有；較適合小額部位、能承受高風險、並可持有3–5年的投機或佈局型資金。 ✅ 看多理由（適合長線佈局） - 產業前景優異：量子計算長遠發展空間龐大（2030年預估市場規模達73億美元），RGTI是全棧超導量子計算的龍頭企業之一。 - 技術與訂單：已推出108Q量子系統；獲美國政府1億美元補助，並與廣達展開2.5億美元合作，訂單狀況明確。 - 財務與籌碼：現金約6億美元、無負債；機構持股比例達53.6%，籌碼相對集中。 - 分析師普遍看好：市場共識目標價約29美元，潛在漲幅超過60%。 ❌ 看空理由（長線持有主要風險） - 大幅虧損+高估值：2026年第一季營收僅440萬美元，營運虧損2600萬美元；本銷比高達244倍以上，遠超出行業平均水準。 - 商業化進度緩慢：具實用性的量子應用至少還需3–5年發展，短期難以獲利。 - 競爭激烈：IONQ、QBTS等同業積極追趕，且業界並非只有單一技術路線。 - 股價波動劇烈：貝塔係數約3.4，漲跌幅度大，容易影響投資心態。 🎯 結論與建議 - 一般散戶：不建議長線持有。估值存有泡沫、企業長期難以獲利，且股價波動風險極高。 - 高風險承受資金：可小額部位（佔資金≤5%）佈局，持有期3–5年，設定停損（例如下跌20%），股價走高時分批獲利了結。 - 觀察重點：季度營收是否穩定增長、虧損是否逐步收縮、1000Q技術發展藍圖能否如期落地。

$Apple(AAPL)$ $Apple(AAPL)$  再入五股長揸。 向低調高手庫克致敬 今日閒聊，不談紛擾的市場波動，不論喧囂的科技熱潮，只想致敬一位低調到极致，卻以超凡實力鑄就商業傳奇的頂級高手——蒂姆·庫克。他沒有賈伯斯的天馬行空與傳奇光環，沒有張揚的言辭與驚世的宣言，卻在無聲無息間，扛起一份沉甸甸的傳承：2011年接任時，蘋果深陷“沒有賈伯斯就會衰落”的漫天質疑，市值僅3500億美元，而他憑藉紮實的經營，硬生生將這家企業推向無人能及的巔峯，如今市值穩站2.6兆美元、最高曾破3兆，成為全球最具價值的公司之一。他用數十年的低調篤行，完美詮釋了“真正的高手，從不張揚，實力自會震撼時代”。 認識庫克的人，都深知他是個極度自律、低調刻入骨髓，卻藏著驚人力量的管理者。不同於許多科技巨頭CEO的高調曝光、刻意營銷，他從不經營個人聲名，沒有豪華鋪張的公開亮相，沒有誇誇其談的空洞承諾，甚至極少接受媒體深度採訪，將所有精力都傾注於事業本身。他的日常，簡單得近乎苛刻，卻藏著常人難及的堅持：每天清晨4點30分準時起床，閱讀郵件、規劃日程，數十年如一日從不間斷；穿搭永遠是簡潔的深色西裝、淺色襯衫，毫無過多裝飾，低調得仿佛公司裡一位普通員工，卻在低調中藏著無與倫比的篤定與力量。他曾說：“專注於你所做的事，而不是你所得到的關注，價值自會隨之而來。” 這句話，正是他一生的真實寫照——不戀名利，不貪掌聲，唯以匠心篤行，把每一件事做到極致，用行動勝過千言萬語。 庫克的作風，向來是“低調做事，高調成事”，穩健、精準、極致，是刻在他骨子里的標籤，更是他橫掃質疑、鑄就輝煌的核心底色。他接任蘋果時（2011年），外界

The Federal Reserve's June 17 meeting delivered a distinct hawkish shock under new Chair Kevin Warsh. While the benchmark rate was held steady at 3.50%–3.75%, the updated dot plot revealed that 9 out of 19 officials now forecast at least one rate hike in 2026 — with 6 of them expecting multiple hikes. This sudden shift from easing expectations to potential tightening caused a brief sector rotation away from high-beta tech into value. However, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s after-hours resilience—climbing back toward $206 after closing regular hours down at $204.65 — highlights that macro noise is hitting a massive structural wall of enterprise AI demand. Will the Volatility Continue? Yes, in the short term. High-growth tech stocks are highly sensitive to the co

No, AI won't fully offset higher rates. Warsh's Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% but shifted dots toward hikes amid sticky inflation (~3.6% PCE forecast) from energy/geopolitics and resilient growth. AI drives record highs via massive capex ($500B+ in 2026 for hyperscalers) and earnings in tech/semiconductors, powering S&P concentration. Yet higher rates raise borrowing costs, pressure valuations, and risk a pullback if productivity/ROI lags. Markets are resilient but vulnerable to rotation or correction if AI hype meets reality. Diversify; expect volatility.