CPI & PPI Week: Will 25 or 50 bps Break the Stalemate?
Last week, the U.S. labor market showed signs of unexpected weakness. The job report released on September 5th revealed that employers added only 22,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. It raises questions about the broader health of the economy, and whether the labor market can continue absorbing shocks without further deterioration. This week, markets are turning their attention to key inflation indicators: Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. These readings are critical because they provide insight into whether inflation pressures are easing or persisting despite slower job growth. Investors are trying to reconcile weaker employment data with ongoing inflation trends, which creates a complex environment for mon
🚑📊🔥 $UNH: The Mother of All Short Covers? Thank You, Mr. Buffett! 🚑📊🔥
$UnitedHealth(UNH)$$Alibaba(BABA)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ I’m fully convinced $UNH is setting up for one of the most asymmetric upside trades of the year. With Berkshire’s stake anchoring conviction, Congressional buys lighting the fuse, shorts overloaded, and fundamentals stabilizing, this looks less like a recovery and more like a full-scale rerating. 🧮 Discounted Cashflow Conviction I’ve run the DCF, and the result is decisive. Equity value per share comes in at $580.03, nearly 70% upside from here. Present value of the next decade of cashflows plus terminal value makes the current market price deeply disconnected from intrinsic worth. At an 8.5% dis
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$S&P 500(.SPX)$ 🚨📉🕵️♀️ I’m absolutely convinced the battle for $SPY is being fought in real time. $648 proved its strength as intraday support, igniting a $1.6 rebound directly into the $650 magnet. The reclaimed Dark Pool level at $648.82 has become the market’s anchor, and all flows are converging here ahead of PPI and CPI. ⚡ Liquidity Flush in Motion On the 4H Keltner/Bollinger chart, price is coiled tight at the upper envelope; a classic setup before a liquidity flush. On the 30m, every dip toward $648.97 has been absorbed, while sellers stack firepower at $650.52. This isn’t random chop; it’s controlled positioning. 📊 Options Flow: Precision Fuel Flow data shows
9.9 (September 9). Today's a shopping date & I went mad on my phone.. From grocery browsing to catch the best sales within shopee, TikTok then finally Tiger - Yes, I'm the kind of housewife who doesn't have to go to the office however, I do earn my own money ok.. so are you that housewife like me?[Observation] Tbh I don't believe September is the month to stay away from trading as long as we have the upperhand with the knowledge of Options trading. So if you have yet to start, go redeem your Options handbook from Tiger & learn to trade Options today. Ps. Don't say that Tiger or nobody teach you how, after all most traders learn it our own by studying YouTube etc.[Sly]
$Citigroup(C)$$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ 📈 I’m fully convinced Citigroup ($C) is entering a structural re-rate that the market can no longer ignore. A 17-year base has finally broken, and the conviction in options flow is unmistakable. $550K just surged into the 17Oct $92.5C, while 19Sep $82.5C ITM calls are trading at delta 0.96–0.97, effectively shadowing the stock. That isn’t speculation; that’s institutional leverage positioning for more upside. 📊 Options Greeks Reinforce the Setup ITM deltas replicate stock almost one-for-one, while OTM deltas in the 92.5–97.5C range build convexity that rewards momentum. Gamma is climbin
📊🚀🔥 Robinhood vs AppLovin: Staying Power or Sell-the-News in the S&P 500? 🔥🚀📊
$Robinhood(HOOD)$$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$$Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ 🧭 Thesis This is a high-conviction, flow-fueled upgrade for HOOD and APP. Expect a near-term inclusion pop as indexers pile in during the late-September rebalance window, followed by a digestion phase. The “index effect” often fades in 30–45 days, but how much it fades depends on fundamentals and cycle positioning. My edge? Buy dips pre-rebalance, trim into inclusion strength, and reload post-event once liquidity stabilises. 📣 What’s Driving This S&P Dow Jones Indices is adding Robinhood Markets and AppLovin to the S&P 500. Both stocks ripped on the news, and major media flagged the
Can Kroger (KR) E-commerce Sales Help To Power Earnings Beat and Price Raise?
$Kroger(KR)$ is scheduled to report its Q2 2025 earnings on Thursday, September 11, 2025, before the market opens. The fiscal quarter for this report ended on August 16, 2025. Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus EPS forecast is around $1.00 per share. This would represent a significant increase from the $0.93 per share reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue: Analysts expect revenue of approximately $34.12 billion, which would be a slight increase of about 0.6% from the prior-year quarter. Kroger's Fiscal Q1 2025 Earnings Summary Kroger delivered a strong performance in its first fiscal quarter of 2025, which ended on May 24, 2025. The company's results generally exceeded analyst expectations, particularly on the bottom line, despite a s
How RH (RH) Navigate Challenging Macroeconomic Environment Might Show In Its Earnings
$RH(RH)$ is scheduled to report its second-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results on Thursday, September 11, 2025, after the market closes. This report is highly anticipated as it will provide a crucial update on the company's performance amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment. Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus EPS forecast for Q2 2025 is approximately $3.19. This represents a significant increase from the reported EPS of $1.69 in the same quarter last year. Revenue: While specific revenue forecasts are less prominent, analysts are forecasting annual revenue growth for the fiscal year. Investors should pay close attention to the actual revenue figure and its year-over-year change, as it will be a key indicator of consumer demand for RH'
Wall Street Wakes Up to NBIS: A $19B Bet on the Future of AI Cloud
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to reshape not just the technology sector but also financial markets. Every few months, a new player emerges from relative obscurity to become the next centerpiece of investor excitement. This time, the spotlight falls on Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS), a hyperscale AI infrastructure company that has just stunned Wall Street. Shares of NBIS soared an extraordinary 70% in a single trading session, closing at $108.58, after the company announced a multi-year $19.4 billion agreement with Microsoft (MSFT). According to NBIS’s SEC filing, Microsoft will purchase $17.4 billion worth of AI cloud services, with an additional $2 billion option running through 2031. For a company of NBIS’s size, this deal is tran
Kenvue (KVUE) Stock CRASH!! Tylenol Lawsuit Fallout & Hidden Risks Explained: Slid Due to Operational Challenges?
$Kenvue Inc(KVUE)$ A Consumer Health Giant in Crisis Kenvue Inc. (NYSE: KVUE), the consumer health spin-off from Johnson & Johnson that owns iconic brands like Tylenol, Benadryl, Listerine, and Band-Aid, has entered one of its toughest chapters since its market debut. Shares of the company tumbled by double digits after reports emerged that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., may link prenatal acetaminophen (Tylenol) use to autism spectrum disorders in an upcoming report. The selloff was swift and brutal, erasing billions in market value in a matter of hours. But while the headlines fixated on the autism controversy, the real story goes deeper. Kenvue is not only confronting reputation
Alibaba’s Buyback Bet: Why I Believe the Market Is Finally Taking Notice
A rally with substance Alibaba has been steadily buying back its own stock for two years, and investors are finally starting to reward it. The shares are up 78% year-to-date, comfortably beating the Hang Seng Index’s 29% rise. This isn’t just hot money chasing momentum. It reflects a genuine alignment between undervalued fundamentals, management conviction, and shifting analyst sentiment. After years of regulatory setbacks and gloomy narratives, the market seems ready to believe in $Alibaba(BABA)$, $BABA-W(09988)$ again. Alibaba’s rally rises from ashes with conviction and clarity Buybacks that bite When management commits billions to buy back stock, it’s not charity—it’s a signal. Alibaba has retired ar
As someone observing the recent news about AppLovin $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ and Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD)$ joining the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , I find it fascinating to see how these companies are gaining such prominence. Robinhood's popularity among retail investors, especially with meme stocks like AMC Entertainment and GameStop, has clearly driven its stock to rise over 200% this year. This surge reflects a strong community backing, which could give it a unique edge in the index. On the other hand, AppLovin's impressive gains—278% i
I'm intrigued by the recent 70% surge in Nebius $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ stock, especially with the announcement of a $19.4B multi-year deal with Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ . The fact that Microsoft will purchase $17.4B worth of AI cloud services, with a $2B option through 2031, suggests a strong vote of confidence in Nebius's capabilities. This partnership, combined with the stock hitting $108.58, makes me wonder about its future trajectory. It's exciting to see such growth, but I'm cautious about whether this rapid rise could push it into "too expensive" territory, similar to what happened with CoreWeave $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$
Daily Charts - NBIS forms a God Candle after signing a $17.4 Billion deal with MSFT
1.Nebius Group $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ forms a God Candle after signing a $17.4 Billion deal to provide Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ with AI infrastructure 📈📈A stock chart displaying the price movement of Nebius Group (NBIS) over time, with candlestick patterns and a green oval highlighting a significant upward spike. The chart includes a timeline from January to September 2024, price levels ranging from 20.00 to 100.00, and indicators like volume and moving averages. Text overlays show "Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)", "Daily", and "1 Year".2.UnitedHealth $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ jumps to highest price in 4 months 📈📈Image3.U.S. Housing Market 39 of the Top 50 U.S. Metros have seen mo
IONQ continues to show promising growth within a bullish framework
$IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$$DEFIANCE DAILY TARGET 2X LONG IONQ ETF(IONX)$ 📈 Long-Term Investment Strategy & AnalysisCurrent Zone: BullishRecommended Position: Buy and HoldIONQ remains firmly in a bullish environment, where sustained buying pressure drives the long-term trend higher. Within this zone, two sub-trends are possible:Uptrend: Strong upward momentum with occasional dips.Correction Trend: Temporary declines within an overall rising pattern.Currently, IONQ is in the correction phase, but historical data suggests such periods often act as consolidation before resuming the uptrend.The 8-day bullish streak has yielded a modest 0.6% cumulative return, reinforcing stability in upward momentum.Probability of
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Ahead of key inflation data tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST, a pattern has emerged in recent months: most bearish Stochastic Crossovers have pushed the index down to its 30-day moving average.While $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ provided a bullish boost today as its daily chart suggested for the short term, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ has been attempting to spike. A potential breakout in volatility remains a risk.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:
On August 11, I issued a Daily Inversion Long Signal on $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ — projecting the correction was complete ✅ and upside to 240–246 was next 🎯Fast forward:📉 IWM immediately rallied after the Daily iFVG🎯 Reached the 240 target inside the projected timeframe 🕔🔥 Followed the projected path exactlyThis wasn’t luck. It was Elliott Wave 2.0 at work.ImageImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉
The $ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ deal with $Microsoft(MSFT)$ is $17.4B over 5 years.That’s $3.48B annually.For a company that just did $118M in revenue last year. We are looking at a potential 35x in total revenue here.ImageWith AI, we are in the midst of a generational technological revolution. Life changing gains will be made in owning the right Small and Mid Caps.The reality is that we are going to be looking at $5bn+ quicker than anybody thinks if the commen…For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:
CPI & PPI Week: Is 25bps Priced in? 50bps Possible or Not?
This week, all eyes are on US CPI and the Fed’s next move. So far this year, the S&P 500 has set more than 20 record highs and has rebounded over 30% since its April low, demonstrating strong resilience.With markets sitting near record highs, investors are asking: is a 25 bps cut already priced in, or will 50 bps be needed to break the stalemate?Key data coming this week! 25 or 50 bps?PPI (Sep 10): Last month, PPI came in hot at 3.3% vs 2.5% forecast. Another upside surprise could spook markets before CPI.CPI (Sep 11): Forecast at 2.9% (vs 2.7% prior).If it is above 2.9%, then the market might suffer from short-term pain.Despite these risks, Fed rate cut odds for September have surged to 100%. Most expect a 25 bps cut, but a few see a surprise 50 bps as possible.One Polymarket trader e