CPI & PPI Week: Is 25bps Priced in? 50bps Possible or Not?
This week, all eyes are on US CPI and the Fed’s next move.
So far this year, the S&P 500 has set more than 20 record highs and has rebounded over 30% since its April low, demonstrating strong resilience.
With markets sitting near record highs, investors are asking: is a 25 bps cut already priced in, or will 50 bps be needed to break the stalemate?
Key data coming this week! 25 or 50 bps?
PPI (Sep 10): Last month, PPI came in hot at 3.3% vs 2.5% forecast. Another upside surprise could spook markets before CPI.
CPI (Sep 11): Forecast at 2.9% (vs 2.7% prior).
If it is above 2.9%, then the market might suffer from short-term pain.
Despite these risks, Fed rate cut odds for September have surged to 100%. Most expect a 25 bps cut, but a few see a surprise 50 bps as possible.
One Polymarket trader even bet $15k on a 50+ bps cut, with a potential $226k payoff.
A profile interface for JustWakingUp on Polymarket, showing a profile picture of a person with a beard, username JustWakingUp, and join date Jan 2022. Displayed metrics include portfolio value $633,433.62, profit $2,167,714.34, volume traded $397,222,849, and positions traded 8,189. A market prediction section shows a bet on the Fed decreasing interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting, with odds and potential winnings.
Where are we now?
September is historically the weakest month for equities, yet history also shows that rate cuts outside recessions often flip this seasonal trend into gains.
On the charts, $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ has just broken out of a triangle consolidation near its upper boundary.
A breakout suggests bullish momentum. But with shrinking volume and RSI/MACD divergence, it’s a cautious rally.
Diverged views on rate cuts: how will market move?
Some says if inflation stays steady, the market will rocket.
Citi expects multiple consecutive cuts ahead, while Nomura sees “insurance cuts” as likely. JPMorgan, however, warns that September’s cut could be the cue for profit-taking.
JPMorgan’s trading team pointed out that if the Fed cuts rates as expected at its September 17 meeting, the move—already fully priced in by markets—could instead become a catalyst for investors to take profits and temporarily step aside.
Discussion
Do you think the Fed will go bold with 50 bps, or stick with 25 bps?
Will CPI above 2.9% derail the breakout, or is the bull market too strong to stop?
If the cut is already priced in, is September the month to take profits?
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至于 CPI，如果数据高于2.9%，确实会给市场带来短暂的压力，尤其是利率敏感的板块可能会出现震荡。但现在的市场环境和去年不同，资金对“牛市逻辑”的信念更强，AI、能源等板块的资金流入仍然坚挺。所以我认为，即便数据略超预期，也不足以完全破坏上行趋势，最多就是触发一次健康的技术性调整。
最后，如果降息预期已经被市场大幅消化，那么九月确实可能成为部分资金选择获利了结的窗口。尤其是经历了上半年强劲反弹后，一些机构可能会借机锁定收益。不过，这更像是节奏上的波动，而不是趋势的逆转。换句话说，九月或许会有震荡，但整体牛市结构暂时还没有被动摇。
If CPI comes in above 2.9%, short-term pain is likely with indices near record highs. The QQQ breakout is positive, but RSI/MACD divergence and weak volume suggest limited fuel. A hot CPI could spark a pullback before the Fed meeting, adding volatility.
September feels like a “sell into strength” month. With weak seasonality and cuts priced in, profit-taking after the Fed is possible. Still, I’m constructive on the bull market—especially if consecutive cuts follow—but near term, I’d rather stay cautious than chase.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
2、CPI高于2.9%可能引发短期波动，但牛市动能强劲；基本面（盈利增长、流动性）可能会保持趋势不变。
3.如果降息已经被消化，那么9月份可能是一个获利了结的战术窗口，尤其是在最近的反弹之后，同时保留一些上行风险。
2. CPI doesn't seem to have impact on the stock price thus far
3. Think the stock price will still react positively at the point of rate cut announced, looking forward to it [Cool] not the time for profit taking I feel
至于CPI，如果数据高于2.9%，确实会对市场形成心理压力，尤其是在通胀与利率预期敏感的阶段。但我观察到，这一轮牛市的推动力并不单纯来自利率，而是AI、科技创新以及资金面充裕的多重共振。换句话说，短期冲击是肯定的，但牛市的底层逻辑并不会轻易瓦解，顶多是节奏放缓，而不是趋势逆转。
九月是不是获利了结的时点？我认为要看个股和板块。大盘可能因预期兑现而出现震荡，但结构性行情仍会持续。科技龙头或许有短期调整压力，但能源、金融等板块可能会成为资金避风港。如果投资者已经获利颇丰，九月部分兑现、调仓到防御性资产，可能是更稳妥的操作，而不是一刀切地全面离场。
CPI（9月11日）：预测于2.9%（之前为2.7%）.
如果高于2.9%，那么市场可能会遭受短期痛苦。
在圖表上，$景順QQQ(QQQ)$剛剛突破三角盤整接近它的上邊界。
突破錶明看漲勢頭。但隨着成交量萎縮與RSI/MACD背離，這是一個謹慎的反彈。