To The Moon

$MU$ Micron shorts covered, followed by a $50 million bullish call order. I joked earlier that Trump wanted to buy MU cheap — shorting it hard with big put positions, and that once those puts closed, it might be time to bottom-fish. Turns out that wasn't entirely a joke. On Tuesday's open, two of the most prominent short-dated bearish positions were closed: $MU 20260424 420.0 PUT$ $MU 20260424 400.0 PUT$ $MU 20260424 380.0 PUT$  Then, looking at open interest, a new position emerged: 29,000 contracts of the June 18th 400 call $MU 2026

$NVDA$ I had expected range-bound trading this week. But looking at NVDA's put flow — mostly clustered around 160 — there's a good chance we retest the 60-week MA. Institutional call spread for this week: sell 172.5 call $NVDA 20260402 172.5 CALL$ , buy 180 call $NVDA 20260402 180.0 CALL$ . The sharp sell-off in AI chip names might shake some confidence in demand. But nothing has fundamentally changed. It's just that stocks aren't cheap enough for Trump yet. Once these names get beaten down enough, the Iran-Israel conflict will magically get resolved. Sounds absurd — but check back when MU hits 300. Medium-term call spread rolled down: 180–200 from 190

$META$ Meta plunged about 8% on Thursday, triggered by an announcement to increase its Texas AI data center investment to $10 billion — the project was previously only $1.5 billion. Isn't this exactly what capital expenditure looks like in earnings reports? And Meta is showing the market that not only will capex not shrink this year, it will keep growing. That explains why Google, Microsoft, and Amazon all sold off along with it. Meanwhile, Apple $AAPL$ held up — sure, iPhone sales expectations are down due to higher hardware costs, but Apple's annual capex is in the tens of billions, not hundreds. Oh, and let's not forget Tesla, the cash-burning heavyweight, so it got dragged down too. Then, as luck would have it, Trump also felt the market hadn't dropped enough. Geopolitics plus AI spend

At Thursday's open, Trump remarked that he expected stocks to fall harder. Shortly after, the market slid sharply and tested the previous low. What I took from that: the stocks he wants to buy haven't dropped enough. If I had to guess which one? Micron. No hard evidence — just a gut feeling. So maybe when MU hits 300, it's time to bottom-fish. Not because memory demand is broken — it's not. Just that the President isn't in the car yet. A lot of long positions opened Wednesday are now looking like left-hand entries. $NVDA$ The floor is 170. Wednesday saw a large sell put order on the April 10th 170 strike $NVDA 20260410 170.0 PUT$  — 27k contracts. Translation: no matter how volatile the next two weeks get, the expectation

Most of Friday's options flow was hedge-driven — nothing too notable. But two trades stood out: Sell 180 Call $XOM 20260618 180.0 CALL$  — 34.4k contracts, $12.03M notional. Buy 55 Put $XLE 20260618 55.0 PUT$  — 35k contracts, $5.04M notional. So someone was already short energy on Friday. Then Monday came, Trump rolled out TACO, and oil cratered. But here's the catch: XOM and XLE ripped higher and hit new highs anyway. Maybe that's why expiry was six months out — TACO fired the starting gun, but oil is supposed to slide over the first half. The consensus now: one more leg down. Still, early bullish flow is starting to surface. $MU$ Memory demand is struc

$SPY$ When is it time to buy the dip? Not now. Simple reason: the current drop is pricing in the impact of surging oil prices — but what about earnings season? With triple witching (March 20) behind us, we're now three weeks out from Q2 earnings. Last quarter, spending was the main driver for stock moves. Spending up → stocks down. So if spending slows, does that mean stocks go up? Not so fast. Slower spending would signal that big tech is cautious on AI — which would almost certainly trigger a valuation reset. That's why I'm not surprised to see May puts targeting 600–625 on SPY. That's deeply pessimistic. Still, a bounce next week is possible. Put expirations are skewed further out than calls. So the market could swing violently either way — but options are expensive. Buying premium is a

$NVDA$ High probability: range-bound snoozefest. Low probability: total meltdown. War’s not over. Everyone’s waiting for Trump to drop the hammer. If he does — buy the crash. If peace breaks out instead? Short squeeze goes vertical. Usually selling calls here is risky. But for NVDA — and the rest of Mag 7 — squeeze potential is capped. Market’s glued to Q2 capex. No upside till earnings. Pick a strike with room, hedge it. Call spreads are fine. Institutions ran it back: same 185–190 spread as last week $NVDA 20260320 185.0 CALL$  $NVDA 20260320 190.0 CALL$ . 170 puts $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$&

$NVDA$ Good news first: the April 2nd 160 puts are gone $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Bad news: now they're betting on a crash, staggered by expiry. Even better news: premium's so cheap, notional is tiny. You can see why bears gave up on normal puts. NVDA's actually cheap now. And it's been range-bound for 7 months — not crowded like MU. Institutions running the same call spreads: 187.5 and 185. I'd still feel safer above 190 $NVDA 20260320 190.0 CALL$ . But AMD just opened 16k of next week's 160 puts $AMD 20260320 160.0 PUT$ . SMH also saw 13k of the 342.5 puts

$SPY$ The biggest trade: 29k of the March 17th 647 puts bought $SPY 20260317 647.0 PUT$  — over $4M in premium. March 17th is a Tuesday. Expiry like that? Only makes sense if someone's positioning for a Monday gap lower. Trump may want a quiet runway into triple witching, but Wall Street and the political machine behind him aren’t all rowing the same boat. If shorts in the US market start stirring up trouble, hard to stop it — the payoff from a crash is just too big. And who knows — maybe Trump himself is backing the downside. Talking stability, but betting on chaos. $NVDA$ Same story, different week. Still betting on a pullback to 170 $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$&nb

$NVDA$ Tuesday's put flow suggests the panic has cooled — at least for this week. But institutions aren't letting their guard down. 40k of the March 20th 170 puts were bought to open $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$ . If oil's reaction is any guide, we're likely in for the scenario I laid out yesterday: chop into triple witching. So NVDA grinds 180–190 into next week. $USO$ USO saw big blocks in puts — mostly longer-dated. Two strike buckets: 100 and 90. Means the market sees a stalemate near-term. Probability of a major drop in the next two weeks? Low. $TSLA$ First medium-term bullish call in a while: 510 calls bought $TSLA 20260515 510.0 CALL$  — 15.9k contr