To The Moon

These past few days I kept waiting for big buy orders to come in. They did show up, for example: $SPCX 20270416 215.0 CALL$  — 12K contracts bought, over $10M traded; $DRAM 20270319 60.0 CALL$  — 30K contracts bought, over $10M traded; $CRWV 20270319 85.0 CALL$  — 14K contracts traded, close to $10M+. Today, during the big selloff, DRAM $DRAM 20270416 60.0 CALL$ opened another 27K contracts, over $9M traded. But these big orders have one problem: they were bought too openly. You can find them by searching Tiger's desk

It's been tough, but we finally got a big call order. A bounce needs big call orders underneath it. But then again, just because there are big call orders doesn't mean it's time to be bullish. The January-expiry DRAM 60 call, $DRAM 20270115 60.0 CALL$ , opened 87K contracts on Monday, with about $16M+ traded. This order is the real deal: out-of-the-money strike, nearly 100K contracts opened, over $10M traded. That's a serious bet on a bounce. The strike is out of the money, at the level where the early-October drop started. That means the bounce target isn't very high. But if a real bounce starts, it could be enough to take SPY to 800. Of course, Monday's weak bounce wasn't just bulls. SOXX opened the Oct 30 expiry 360 pu

Semiconductors have fallen to a fairly meaningful support level. For more downside from here, they need to break below it with conviction. For upside, they need to hold the support. So the big orders opened Friday were very extreme: buying short-term deep out-of-the-money puts, the kind that cost a dime or two. The upside is that if the market crashes at Monday's open, they double right away. The other upside is that if the market opens higher, you only lose a little. It's a bet with almost no downside. But from other players' point of view, when big buy orders are very cheap, it usually means the direction they're betting on is seen as low probability. Another less cheap bearish play is buying out-of-the-money puts, say expiring next year. That works better for positioning before a crash,

The value of Trump accounts auto-investing in the S&P 500 keeps looking better. Semiconductors crashed, dragging Korea's KOSPI down 17% for the month. SOXX fell 9.5% for the month. But as of Friday premarket, the S&P 500 is up 1.2% this month. The chain selling that usually hits U.S. stocks after a sector crash didn't happen this time. To keep the index balanced, consumer and healthcare sectors are being pushed to the limit. The market makers are really working overtime to herd money where they want it. The popular story that Democrats sweeping the House would crack down on AI sounds reasonable. But guess which party Nancy Pelosi — Congress's stock-trading star — belongs to. She bought NVDA and BE stock and calls. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bon

Some people may have noticed that the index spikes hard for two days every month, usually at the start of the month. Then the trend slides down like a paper airplane losing speed. Then a new month starts, and it spikes again. This makes the daily chart look like a dog chewed on it, but the monthly chart keeps climbing steadily along the 5-month moving average. This pattern started after July 4th this year. That's also when Trump's baby account policy was announced — a plan to get kids to auto-invest in the S&P 500. From some big bearish orders, you can see the S&P 500 really wanted a proper pullback after July. July was painful for a lot of people, but the S&P 500 held firmly above its 5-month moving average. In other words, sectors can take turns falling, but the S&P 500's

Back from the holiday, everything had changed. Sector rotation has reached semiconductors, which are now bleeding to feed tech giants and bank stocks. The bearish turn was very sudden. From a pure chart-reading view, it means the part that jumped the gun in September gives back its gains, and then the stocks that didn't rise in September should rise. Of course, as some fall and others rise, the overall market keeps chopping higher near its highs. With that idea, this week's two big earnings reports could look very different: financial stocks may bounce after earnings, while TSMC is more likely to keep drifting near lows after its report. I won't pretend anymore: I peeked at the answer key. Before earnings, big sell put orders showed up in financial stocks, like

The title is my attitude toward the Q4 market — more precisely, through Anthropic's IPO. Q4 has three major tailwinds. First, Anthropic has tentatively finalized its IPO date. It's reportedly planning a large-scale IPO before the Thanksgiving holiday (around November 26), and could begin IPO marketing as early as the week of November 9. It plans to target a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion. As everyone knows, a blockbuster company going public means the market atmosphere has to be heated up — the market must rise. Second, historical data: since 1930, the S&P 500 has averaged a 5.6% gain in Q4 of midterm election years — twice the average gain of other years. Third, tonight's nonfarm payrolls. Only 29,000 jobs added — it made me laugh. Rate-hike odds immediately dropped.

TLT and Treasury yields typically move inversely, so the surge in yields pushed TLT below 80, hitting historic lows. However, a mysterious options block trade suggests this trend may be nearing a temporary end. During today's session, someone opened 80,000 contracts of the November 30-expiry TLT call at the 83 strike $TLT 20261130 83.0 CALL$ , with a total notional of about $3 million. It's possible the buyer simply thought it was too low and saw a rebound opportunity, so they went all in — because $3 million in notional isn't particularly impressive in today's world of A9-level wealth; it only shows that buyers are tempted at this level. Still, nearly 100,000 contracts in volume is enough to sound an alarm for market mak

$Intel(INTC)$ If you ask me what the most worth-holding stock in October is, yesterday I wouldn't have had a definitive answer — but today I can confidently say it's Intel. On Monday, a large Sell Call block opened, selling the October 16-expiry 130 Call $INTC 20261016 130.0 CALL$ , opening 52,000 contracts. Someone also opened a 160 Sell Call and an October 9-expiry 130 Sell Call, but both were under 10,000 contracts. Ordinary Sell Call block trades get absorbed into the options wall, but a 50,000-contract Sell Call block carries reflexivity. The effect of these massive seller block trades plays out in two phases: In the first phase, the validity of the block trade is confirmed

Monday's chip stock plunge wasn't just due to crude oil prices rising again — Meta's stock price also pulled back, and as seen from last week's correlation, the two are highly linked. But no need to rush, because OpenAI is also about to launch an around-the-clock online assistant this week. It's foreseeable that Anthropic and other major players will follow suit with personal assistants. So the conclusion is: Monday's pullback is very suitable for Sell Puts, for example: $SKHY 20261009 170.0 PUT$  $MU 20261002 900.0 PUT$  $MRVL 20261009 220.0 PUT$