To The Moon

My watchlist this week is $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ $Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$ . I still see strong momentum in the AI infrastructure cycle, especially semiconductors and data center power demand, which should continue to support both names in the medium term as capex from hyperscalers remains elevated. For dividend plays, I prefer $W.W. Grainger(GWW)$ $Target(TGT)$ . GWW stands out for its strong cash flow, pricing power, and consistent execution, while TGT looks more like a value recovery story after its pullback, with a decent dividend yield as a cushion. Overall, I focus more on EPS momentum, guidance quality,

$NVDA at All-Time Highs Into Earnings: Is Blackwell Priced for Perfection or Ready to Shock Wall Street? $NVDA reports its highly anticipated earnings this Wednesday after the bell, and the stakes have literally never been higher. With the stock sitting at absolute all-time highs and data center expectations stretched to historic extremes, this isn't just an earnings report—it's the ultimate test of the global AI hardware thesis. With hyperscaler capex scrutiny and lingering tariff anxieties colliding, the market is bracing for a violent, binary move. Is a "sell-the-news" bloodbath inevitable, or can the Blackwell supercycle melt the market upward once again? Let’s break down the mechanics of Wednesday's print. 1️⃣ The Blackwell Supercycle: Reality vs. Expectations Wall Street knows Blackw

AMD Bleeds 5.7% on Foundry Rumors & Cerebras Hype — Is Sub-$400 the Ultimate Buy Zone or a Value Trap? The semiconductor space just experienced a violent sentiment shock. AMD tumbled 5.7% in the latest session, slicing briefly below the psychological $400 level as a sudden wave of de-risking swept through the sector. Sparked by unexpected Intel-Apple foundry narratives and rising noise around the "Nvidia vs. Cerebras" AI chip battle, funds aggressively trimmed their high-beta tech exposure. But is this a fundamental crack in the AI hardware thesis, or just a mechanical shakeout creating a generational entry point? Let’s break down the noise driving this sub-$400 price action. 1️⃣ The Intel-Apple Foundry Shockwave The immediate catalyst for the sector-wide pullback was the emerging narr

I’d stay constructive but less aggressive. Core positions intact, but trimming AI names into strength and holding more cash than usual. For NVDA, expectations are extremely high. It’s no longer about beating, but how far they beat and whether guidance extends the AI capex runway. Base case: Beat + inline → likely sell-the-news Beat + strong raise → short rally, then digestion Exceptional + clear Blackwell upside → squeeze higher I wouldn’t chase pre-earnings. Risk-reward is asymmetric. On the Fed, weaker forward guidance means each FOMC becomes a volatility event. That argues for smaller sizing, staggered entries, and keeping dry powder into summer. Not full “Sell in May”, but definitely not max risk either.

The uncomfortable truth is this: NVDA no longer trades on results, it trades on trajectory confidence. At current positioning, “in-line” is effectively a miss. Blackwell is the swing factor: Volume ramp + supply visibility → market looks past near-term constraints → supports $250 narrative Delayed shipments / constrained supply → pushes revenue rightward → triggers de-risking → $200 becomes realistic Margins matter more than usual this quarter. If Blackwell mix dilutes gross margin near-term, even with strong demand, the market may interpret it as peak profitability already in. Hyperscaler capex is partially priced in. What is not fully priced is: duration of spend (2026–2027 visibility) returns on that spend My base case: Strong beat + modest raise = initial pop, then fade You likely need

This looks more like a positioning unwind than a broken thesis, but the risk is timing. For Micron Technology, the bull case remains intact: HBM demand, AI servers, and tight supply. But the market is now questioning how long excess margins last once Samsung and SK Hynix scale. Key point: memory is still cyclical, even in an AI cycle. Near term: A clean hold above ~$680 suggests this is a shakeout → tradable bounce A decisive break opens ~$650 as the next liquidity pocket What has changed is expectations: Before: sustained supercycle Now: strong, but potentially shorter peak window I would not rush in. Better approach: Start small near support Add only if price stabilises or NVDA confirms demand strength If NVDA disappoints, MU likely overshoots down. That is where the real opportunity may