For NVDA, expectations are extremely high. It’s no longer about beating, but how far they beat and whether guidance extends the AI capex runway.
Base case:
Beat + inline → likely sell-the-news
Beat + strong raise → short rally, then digestion
Exceptional + clear Blackwell upside → squeeze higher
I wouldn’t chase pre-earnings. Risk-reward is asymmetric.
On the Fed, weaker forward guidance means each FOMC becomes a volatility event. That argues for smaller sizing, staggered entries, and keeping dry powder into summer.
Not full “Sell in May”, but definitely not max risk either.
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