To The Moon

Stopped trading $Robinhood(HOOD)$ at the end of January. It is down 40% since. Not touching it yet. Monthly chart is still showing a bear cycle. Until that flips there is nothing to do here. The level to watch is $70. If that breaks we have a volume gap all the way down to $40. I am not looking for a short term bounce. Bounces in bear cycles are traps. You buy it. It fades. You hold the bag. I am waiting for the full cycle shift back to bull before I even think about an entry. Buying dips in a bear cycle feels smart. It rarely ends that way. I will be waiting for confirmation of a rotation on the MBX For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stock

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 📉📊⚠️ $SPX Component Put Buying Hits June 2025 Extremes as Market Tests Structural Support 📉📊⚠️ I’m seeing a decisive shift from passive hedging into active downside demand, with SPX component option buyers driving the 10-day buy-to-open put/call ratio back to June 2025 pessimism extremes. Equity-only ratios printing 1.21–1.46 confirm this is institutional flow asserting itself, not retail-driven noise. I’m tying this directly to post-OPEX positioning dynamics. As dealer gamma rolls off and exposure flips, hedging flows stop dampening volatility and start amplifyi

$Alcoa(AA)$ $Century Aluminum(CENX)$  $Kaiser Aluminum(KALU)$  ⚠️📈 Aluminium Shockwave: Geopolitics Reprices the Curve, Not Just the Spot ⚡🌍 Aluminium is transitioning from a cyclical commodity move into a geopolitical pricing regime shift. LME three-month aluminium surged nearly 5% on 30Mar26, printing highs around $3,492 per tonne. That level matters not just technically, but structurally. The market is no longer reacting to headlines. It is actively repricing supply security risk into the forward curve. This rally is extending beyond a simple disruption trade. Iranian strikes impacting Gulf infrastructure, including Emirates Global Aluminium’

Called the $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ trap weeks ago. Stock is now down 15% from that breakout. Here is what is happening. We are in a bear cycle. The monthly chart confirms it. In a bear cycle every bounce is a trap. Retail sees a bottom. Institutions see an exit. That bounce up to $170 I was watching did not even fully play out. The rejection last month was not a good sign. Worst case from here is another 30% down. That puts price around $80 after filling the volume gap. So what do we do? We wait. No buying. No bottom guessing. No being exit liquidity for the people selling into your confidence. When our bull cycle criteria is met again we will look to buy at a significant discount. Until then the trade is patience. For SG users only, We

$Micron Technology(MU)$ $MU spent 2 months distributing to retail. Big players don't sell into panic. They sell into your confidence. This is why we said buying $MU wasn't a great idea Been bearish on $MU for a month. Called the pullback to $320. Now our short term signal is showing a re-entry. Historically this setup has a 70% win rate. If $MU is going to bounce, it's right now That said, I am not taking it. Here is why: I did not profit on the previous bull cycle. Taking the bounce now means I am chasing the tail end of a move I already missed. That is not how you trade a system. You take every signal or you take none. The moment you start picking which ones feel right you are no longer trading rules. You are trading emotions. We have no idea whic

Many investors pay attention to the wrong variables. Here’s a list of what doesn’t matter, what matters somewhat, and what actually drives returns: Doesn’t really matter: •Market cap •Country company is listed •Share price •Dividend yield Matters somewhat: •Sector •FCF yield •Revenue growth •Insider ownership / owner operator Matters the most: •Return on capital •Margin expansion •Pricing power •Reinvestment runway What would you add? For examples： 1. $Qualys(QLYS)$ Qualys is just one of a number of companies now seeing an all time high FCF yield. The market is pricing in less future growth and a lot of uncertainty. But are they mistaken? 2. $Adobe(ADBE)$ Adobe's free cash flow yield is significantly abov

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is breaking down fast right now. We topped around $690–$697 and have now lost key supports at $677, $652, and $635 today. We’re now trading near $631…and there’s not much support below. The next major level is $620 for me. That’s the first real zone where buyers should step in. Below that? $600 becomes the magnet. Here’s how I see it: 70% chance we test $620 30–40% chance we break under $600 Right now, momentum is bearish. But the reaction at $620 is everything. If buyers step in strong → we bounce. If not → this accelerates fast to $600. Macro matters here too. War = uncertainty Uncertainty = volatility Volatility = downside pressure I still believe the market likely finds a bottom in March/April if this conflict

Stocks Are Falling, But AI Compute Demand Still Looks Red Hot The market is selling first and asking questions later Recent geopolitical tension has pushed U.S. stocks sharply lower, and the damage has been broad. In this kind of environment, investors usually cut risk first and sort out the fundamentals later. That is why the recent decline has felt almost indiscriminate. For long-term investors, that distinction matters. A falling stock does not always mean the business is weakening. Sometimes it simply means the market is in full defense mode. The AI demand signal still looks very strong Under the surface, one of the most important signals is still pointing in the opposite direction. Bloomberg's GPU rental indexes show that AI compute demand remains extremely tight. The key point is not

My stock in focus today is Sembcorp Industries Ltd $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ , following its latest board reshuffle. The appointment of Andreas Sohmen-Pao as Chairman-designate signals leadership continuity, succeeding Tow Heng Tan, who guided Sembcorp’s energy transition strategy. This move reinforces Sembcorp’s positioning in the energy transition space. Sohmen-Pao’s role at the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation adds credibility on sustainability, while Steven Phan Swee Kim strengthens governance as incoming Audit Committee chair. Overall, I see this as a positive and stable transition. The key now is whether Sembcorp can convert strong leadership into consistent earnings growth and execute on its clean energy ambitions. In the near te

A Nasdaq technical correction (−10%) is not unusual. Historically, corrections happen almost every year, but not all corrections become bear markets. The key question is whether this is liquidity-driven correction or earnings-driven downturn. At the moment, the drivers look like: Higher-for-longer interest rates Energy prices and inflation uncertainty Valuation compression in mega-cap tech Position unwinding after the AI rally This looks more like a valuation and liquidity reset, not a collapse in tech earnings yet. Would I reduce positions now? Reducing heavily after a −10% correction is usually late. Risk management is normally done near highs, not after drawdowns. At this stage, strategy matters more than direction: If overexposed to Mag 7 → trim slightly and rebalance If holding long t

There are several separate questions here: oil, geopolitics, market strategy. It is important to separate market narrative from actual probabilities, because markets often exaggerate war scenarios. 1. Will April 6 trigger $150 oil? For oil to reach $150, one of these must happen: Full closure of the Strait of Hormuz Direct U.S.–Iran military confrontation Destruction of major oil infrastructure Insurance and shipping collapse in the Gulf The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil supply. If it is fully blocked, oil can spike very fast, even beyond $150 temporarily. But historically, full closure is extremely unlikely, because it would hurt Iran, China, India, Europe and the global economy simultaneously. More realistic scenarios: Continued tension → Oil $90–110 Limited disrupti

$CHINA CINDA(01359)$ 繼續加注，又可以重新買返，[得意]  [得意]  反正都放得咁耐啦，唔怕再放

$Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ Assigned 700 shares, time to sell calls against them at levels of resistance above.  Will ladder the strikes on differing resistance levels as I'm still foreseeing a pump should favourable news ACA subsidies gets released. 

$CRWV 20260327 61.0 PUT$ Limit order filled to strangle existing CRWV naked call for premium 

$ASTS 20260327 65.0 PUT$ Limit order filled to strangle existing ASTS naked call at low strike

$BOIL 20260327 15.0 PUT$ Betting on higher gas price for longer. Qartar lost 20billion in LNG facilities' damage. Supply won't return anytime soon.