To The Moon

Can Oracle and The Fed Unlock the Year-End Breakout? We have moved from the season of hope to the week of proof. After weeks of navigating the crosscurrents of AI skepticism and liquidity withdrawal fears, the market arrives at a critical convergence. The test is binary and unforgiving: $Oracle(ORCL)$   is tasked with underwriting the AI narrative, while the Fed must thread the needle with a delicate 'Hawkish Cut' to cool expectations without freezing the market. This dual audit of corporate fundamentals and central bank policy is the last barrier standing between the $S&P 500(.SPX)$   and a decisive year-end breakout. M

Broadcom and Lululemon Hit by Big Pre-Earnings Option Bets. What's Next? Earnings season is often when institutional positioning becomes most transparent, and ahead of the December 11 after-hours results, $Broadcom(AVGO)$   and $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$   have both recorded notable pre-earnings options activity that quickly drew market attention.  The two companies show completely different structural bets: Broadcom's option flow suggests institutions expect “limited upside and rising dispersion,” while Lululemon's deep in-the-money put selling looks more like “using short-term fear to accumulate shares at a discount.

I think Morgan Stanley's downgrade reflects a very real concern: Pop Mart's $POP MART(09992)$  growth runway is clearly slowing. When a company that once relied on explosive expansion suddenly sees its projected revenue growth cut from 30% to 18%, it signals that the market is maturing faster than expected. I agree with the overall direction of the report—even if I don't fully buy into every assumption—because the recent sales data, weaker consumer sentiment, and intensifying competition all suggest that Pop Mart's high-growth phase is tapering off. At the same time, I don't think the stock's 40% drop from the August highs is purely about fundamentals. What I'm seeing now feels like a momentum-driven flush wher

🐉 Deep Dive: Why the Return of the Dragon is NVDA’s Next Rocket Fuel 🚀 The headlines are flashing, and the after-hours market is moving. Trump has officially given the green light for Nvidia ($NVDA) to resume selling its H200 AI chips to China, subject to a 25% tariff. At first glance, some investors might worry about the tariff. But if you look deeper, this is arguably the most bullish signal we have received for Nvidia in months. We are currently sitting at $184.29, and I believe this news is the catalyst that finally ends the recent correction. Here is my full analysis on why the "China Unlock" changes everything. 👇 1. The Myth of the "Tariff Problem" 🛑➡️🟢 The Bears will argue that a 25% tariff makes Nvidia chips too expensive for Chinese buyers. This is a fundamental misunderstanding o

🚨 The King of Bulls Just Blinked: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Tesla Tesla ($TSLA) shares slipped 3.4% on Monday, but the price drop isn't the real story. The real story is who caused it. Morgan Stanley, led by star analyst Adam Jonas—arguably the biggest institutional cheerleader for Tesla’s "AI & Robotics" thesis—has officially downgraded the stock to "Equal Weight" (Hold). For the last two years, Jonas was the one convincing Wall Street that Tesla isn’t a car company, but a tech monopoly. Now, even he is saying the price has sprinted too far ahead of reality. When the captain of the bull team says "take a breather," it’s time for every trader to reassess their position. 1️⃣ The "Priced for Perfection" Trap The core of Morgan Stanley’s downgrade isn't that Tesla is failing; it’s that th

Crypto’s broad rebound reflects two forces: improving liquidity expectations and rising institutional participation. With rate cuts likely, risk assets may stay supported. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the main drivers, and strength in related equities shows sentiment is turning constructive. Near term, prices may continue to edge higher, although resistance levels could trigger pullbacks. Volatility will stay elevated because ETF flows are uneven and regulatory headlines can shift sentiment quickly. A consolidation between recent highs and mid-range support is the most probable path. Medium term, the trend remains mildly upward if adoption, infrastructure growth and institutional flows persist. Clearer policy guidelines or stronger macro easing could unlock a stronger rally. Overall view:

The initial 25bp cut is largely priced in, so the equity reaction hinges on Powell’s tone. If he signals confidence in disinflation and no urgency for further cuts, markets may extend the rally, led by rate-sensitive sectors and high-quality tech. If he hints at data-dependence and a slower path, gains may be modest, since investors have already repositioned aggressively. For 2026, the key is not the number of cuts but the reason behind them. A growth-friendly cutting cycle supports higher valuations through cheaper financing and sustained earnings. A risk-off cutting cycle triggered by weakening labour markets would cap upside and raise volatility. Given current trends, the base case remains a controlled easing path aligned with soft-landing expectations, which is favourable for equities

$Oracle(ORCL)$  Oracle faces a make-or-break moment. The share price collapse and widening CDS spreads show that the market is questioning both leverage risk and the credibility of its long-term AI-infrastructure narrative. The previous guidance of US$600 billion by 2030 was already viewed as highly aspirational. With the stock now down almost 40 percent, expectations have reset sharply. For this earnings release, three elements matter most. 1. Cloud and AI contract visibility If Oracle can show sustained growth in cloud infrastructure, bookings and backlog, the market may stabilise the valuation. Investors want evidence that hyperscaler competition is not eroding Oracle’s momentum. 2. Cash flow strength and balance-sheet comfort The CDS spik

Tesla’s robotaxi narrative is partly priced in, but not fully. The share price already reflects optimism about autonomy, yet the market still discounts execution risk, regulatory delays and Tesla’s inconsistent FSD rollout pace. Until Tesla demonstrates reliable, scalable Level-4 performance in real fleets, the valuation does not fully embed the “software recurring-revenue” model that the robotaxi story implies. For the competitive landscape: Waymo Waymo leads on safety, validation miles and regulatory acceptance. Its systems operate with high consistency in geofenced areas and have already accumulated meaningful commercial mileage. Cities are more willing to approve a player that prioritises conservative decision-making and redundant sensor architectures. Tesla Tesla’s advantage is cost.

WBD trades more like a deal-option now. The offer price caps upside, yet hostile bids keep a risk premium alive. If a higher offer appears, the stock can reprice quickly, but any regulatory setback may drag it back to pre-rumour levels. Between strategies, a call spread fits better. It keeps risk defined while giving exposure to a possible bid increase. An iron condor is harder to justify because takeover news can break any range overnight. For Netflix, the dip is tempting only if one believes the antitrust noise will fade. Fundamentals are solid, but political scrutiny can weigh on sentiment. A staggered entry or patience may offer safer risk-reward than buying immediately.

So as you can see by the screen shot below, this year has been a roller coaster. Coming out on top with a 46% return, but a few days back it was only 26% YTD. I think many other tigers may have similar stories, I'd love to here yours.  I'm not big on listening to market predictions, they are generally wrong. I suppose the biggest one is the Ai bubble. I think those that are predicting a major crash in Ai in 2006 are full of shite. I certainly will not be going out and buying more speculative Ai or chip stocks. But I'll continue buying $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$. Just DCA into what's the cheapest eve

Diamond hands! Silver to the moon. The current gold to silver ratio is about 68. I'm expecting it to go as low as 40, there is still so much more room for silver to run up, I'm expecting to see price at 100 next year. I will continue to hold silver if the ratio do not go below 40. If it goes below 40 I still start to swap it to gold. If you look at the gold to silver ratio chart it is moving down from about 105 to 68 which is about 35% with the shortage of silver now, 40 still very possible