1.64K
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2025-04-12
The SPY hardly moved
The SPY hardly moved from US PPI data and it was really good (lower inflation) and this is why:What’s the data saying?1.US PPI YoY (Year-over-Year):Actual: 2.7%Expected: 3.3%Previous: 3.2%✅ Came in lower than expected!2.US PPI MoM (Month-over-Month):Actual: -0.4%Expected: 0.2%Previous: 0.0%✅ Negative – prices dropped this month!3.US Core PPI YoY (excludes food & energy):Actual: 3.3%Expected: 3.6%Previous: 3.4%✅ Softer than expected!4.US Core PPI MoM:Actual: -0.1%Expected: 0.3%Previous: -0.1%✅ Still negative – very soft inflation pressureWhat does this mean? (Simple Terms)PPI = inflation for businesses.If it’s going up, costs go up, which may lead to price hikes for consumers.This report shows inflation is cooling off – businesses are paying less or not seeing much cost increases.How do
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2025-04-12
Historically, market pullbacks don’t happen in a week or two
Historically, market pullbacks don’t happen in a week or two. They’re drawn out and bumpy.There was over 2 years from peak to drought from 2000-2002.There was over 2 years from peak to drought from 2007-2009.This peak was Feb 2025. May be 2027 until we see bottom.The stock market thinks short-term.Your biggest advantage is thinking long-term.The best investors are on a constant learning journey.Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.Learn, implement, repeat. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(N
1.16K
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2025-04-12
Daily Charts - Bargain hunters should be looking for a different kind of liquidity
1.Weekend Wine-d Down...With fine wine prices down -25% off the peak, vs about -12% for stocks, maybe bargain hunters should be looking for a different kind of liquidity 😅Image2.One interesting dynamic is we haven't seen a whole lot of rotation through this...Basically been a process of "sell everything"Still, it's well worth keeping an eye on some of those stretched setups like the one in this chart.Image3.Funny how things just seem to have a habit of happening when the Market Cycle is "ready" to turn...Stockmarket Cycles reflect-valuations-business cycle-financial cycles-social/political cycles-industrialization/innovation cyclesThere were multiple signs that the market cycle was near a peak late last year, and now we have things happening -- and sure enough the cycle is turning down.The
644
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2025-04-12
Weekly Macro Themes - Stocks/bonds ratio turns bearish amid recession risks
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:1. Weighing Recession Risk: The US economy faces a high chance of recession this year.2. Stocks vs Bonds: The stock/bond ratio is rolling over as recession risk weighs and momentum shifts from bullish to bearish; relative value and positioning support further follow-through to the downside.3. Credit Spreads: Credit spreads are catching up (/waking up) to equity market volatility, and may well see further upside; particularly in event of recession (remain cautious on credit spreads/risk assets).4. US Dollar: Remain bearish US dollar on recession/political risk, deteriorating technicals, longer-term cycles, expensive valuations; and see credible chance of larger breakdown.5. Global vs US: Bullish global vs US equities given the prospect of a wea
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2025-04-12
Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples this week
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $SailPoint Parent, LP(SAIL)$ $Zscaler Inc.(ZS)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: The
2.50K
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2025-04-12
SPX - THE BEAR MARKET IS SET TO RESUME
THE BEAR MARKET IS SET TO RESUME $S&P 500(.SPX)$ CONFIRMED the bearish WXY model invalidating that the rally off the lows is impulsive.Therefore, 4835 is not safe as that should be crossed to decline to 4600-4400.However, there is strong risk of sideways price action to digest the historic swings before we begin the major leg lower.Overall, looking lower against 5481. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2506(NQmain)$ ImageImag
6.27K
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2025-04-11
Big Loss of $90M! Market Maker Scores Big as Sell Put Trader Runs for the Exit
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Let’s start with a funny story: the whale who sold 90,000 contracts of the $130 put on Wednesday ran for the exit during Thursday’s session. Currently, the open interest for $NVDA 20250411 130.0 PUT$ stands at 58 contracts.We know this whale opened their position right before Wednesday’s close, which was at the highest price of the day. However, they closed out their position on Thursday at intraday lows.As a result, the market makers made a huge profit yet again. Assuming the whale’s closing price was $25 per contract, this trade resulted in a loss of about $90 million for them. In other words, the market makers pocketed $90 million in profits.I admit, I overesti
18.50K
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2025-04-11
Trump & Bessent vs Powell - Investing Option.
Told You So ! As I have rightly pointed out in my 03 Apr 2025 post (click here ! for details, Repost to share ok), US market nosedived for a 2nd day on Fri, 04 Apr 2025. And it continued: On Tue, 8 Apr 2025 a day before reciprocal tariff kicked in. On Thu, 10 Apr 2025, when effect of “reciprocal tariff was put on hold for 90 days” has worn off. It is confirmed that : The Nasdaq Composite was in a bear market. The Dow was in a correction. All these, due to an anticipated global trade war in the making, spurring the biggest losses since the Covid pandemic. With China just upped its tariffs against US imports to 125% in retaliation against US’s crazy 145% tariffs on Chinese imports (see above), the tit-for-tat global war
TOP1PC: [Chuckle] [Chuckle] [Chuckle] Poker, [Warning]Must invite God of Gamblers to participate as VIP players [Chuckle] [Chuckle] [Chuckle]. Nice Sharing 👍. Get Ready for Bouncing effects next week [Chuckle]. @Jes86188 @Gis @Barcode @koolgal @Shyon
10.38K
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2025-04-11
Ray Dalio Warns: Once-in-a-Lifetime Crash — Would You Go All In?
Recently, U.S. stocks have seen sharp volatility, while U.S. Treasuries—traditionally seen as a safe haven—have instead faced rare sell-offs. On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly spiked to 4.51%.Once-in-a-Lifetime Moment: It’s Bigger Than Tariffs.Ray Dalio recently warned that people are largely overlooking deeper forces driving almost everything—including tariffs.“The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders.This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but it has happened many times in history under similar unsustainable conditions.”Dalio highlights five major risks to watch:Breakdown of the monetary/economic orderBreakdown of domestic political stabi
TOPRay Dalio really hit the mark—what we’re seeing now isn’t just about tariffs or policy tweaks. When even U.S. Treasuries aren’t acting like a safe haven, you know we’re in uncharted territory. The breakdowns across monetary systems, politics, and geopolitics aren’t just noise—they’re structural shifts. Tariffs may grab headlines, but they’re just surface-level signals of something much bigger brewing underneath. Now, would I go all in during a crash like 2008? I’d definitely consider it—but cautiously. Panic moments can be once-in-a-lifetime chances, but they’re also when emotions run wild and timing gets tricky. I wouldn’t go “all in” blindly, but I would be ready with dry powder, watching for true capitulation, and scaling in strategically rather than taking a one-shot gamble. Staying diversified, tuned in, and not distracted by short-term noise is my game plan in this high-stakes environment. @Tiger_comments @TigerStars
20.28K
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2025-04-11
[Events] What’s the hardest thing to predict in the stock market? Policy, sentiment, or technicals?
We all know trading isn’t easy. But what’s the hardest part? Sometimes it’s a surprise policy move that sends everything spinning. Other times, it’s investor sentiment shifting on a dime.Today is Friday, we would like to invite you to join the discussion👉“ What do YOU think is the hardest thing to predict in the market — policy, sentiment, or technicals?” And more importantly, why?💬 How to Join:Repost this thread and tag at least one friend to join the conversation.Comment below with your take — what's the most unpredictable part of the market, and why?🗓️ Event Duration:April 11 – April 17, 2025🎁 Prizes:Participation: Everyone who comments gets 5 Tiger Coins. Repost and tag a friend to earn 5 more.Most Liked Comment: Wins a $5 stock voucher.Lucky Draw: One random participant will win $5 st
TOPTo me, the stock market is like dating someone wildly unpredictable—full of mixed signals, sudden mood swings, and just when you think you’ve figured it out, everything changes. Policies are like overprotective parents barging in—one tariff tweet and global markets freeze. Market sentiment? More like a flaky ex: sweet one day, gone the next. And technical analysis? It's like reading between the lines of vague social media posts—you think it means something… until it doesn’t. I’d say emotion is the hardest to predict. When sentiment shifts, fundamentals and charts don’t stand a chance. One dramatic headline and the whole market panic-sells before lunch. Analysts are still drawing support lines while prices are already 10% down. It’s chaos & trying to stay logical in the middle of it is a serious mental game. My current mindset is: Don’t predict—follow. Don’t chase—prepare. Don’t panic—stay disciplined. Emotional control is the real edge in this market. @TigerEvents @Tiger_comments
6.90K
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2025-04-11
Focus on The 2025 Warren Buffett Annual Shareholders, Send Questions to Berkshirequestions@cnbc.com.
$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ was the only winner with postive return compare to other rest TOP 10 stocks ranked by market cap.As of April 2025, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) held approximately $334.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. This significant cash position represents about 25% of Berkshire’s total assets.Here is the information about the 2025 Warren Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ Annual Shareholders' Meeting:Ticket for 2025 Annual shareholder meetingTime and LocationThe 2025 Warren Buffett Annual Shareholders' Meeting will b
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2025-04-11
America gov. bond market is becoming like Japan.
America gov. bond market is becoming like Japan. More and more domestic holders of the debt. $Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bear 3x Shares(TMV)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Image
TOPIs it domestic American citizens or domestic corporates ? It makes a lot of difference, right.
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2025-04-11
💰💰Congrats to the Impressive Earnings & Success Stories by Cash Boost Account！
Hello, Tigers!🐯How's your trade going this week?We started rewarding the sharing of winning trades in the Telegram CashBoost group every week. In this activity, you can earn tiger coins and receive tiger-themed peripheral souvenirs.Welcome to join the Telegram group!💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉Follow @Tiger_Contra to see more Dividend Picks & High Alpha Stocks analysis.Although the US market is consolidating this week, we have been excited to see many Tigers in the community who have opened a Cash Boost account and are sharing their profitable trades.This week, six users have already profited a lot through Contra🎉🎉On April 7, we're happ
TOPCongratulations 🎉 to All the Winners 🏆 [Smile]
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2025-04-11
💰Gold ETF GLD Soars Amid Recession Fears, Bullish for Medium to Long Term
1. Gold Assets Price Touchs ALL TIME HIGHOn April 10, the trading day, the price of the $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ reached a new high.Since the beginning of 2025, gold has been the top-performing industry in terms of price increase.Data from Tiger Trade, Data as of April 10th 2025Top market value stocks includes: $Newmont Mining(NEM)$, $Agnico Eagle Mines(AEM)$, $Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ , $Barrick Gold Corp(GOLD)$ , $Franco-Nevada(FNV)$ $Gold Fields(GFI)$ $Angl
TOPThe medium and long-term prospects are fantastic, because of de-dollsrisation, which has accelerated as a result of last week’s turmoil. Make no mistake. The world is not going back to what we are used to. You will see sovereign nations start and continue purchasing large quantities of gold and increasingly silver in their treasuries.
3.92K
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2025-04-11
145% Tariffs: Nasdaq or Hang Seng Tech—Which One’s Your Rebound Pick?
$NASDAQ(. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ )$ $Hang Seng Index( $Hang Seng Index - main 2504(HSImain)$ )$ Trump’s latest salvo—a jaw-dropping 145% tariff on China—has ignited a firestorm in global markets, and the fallout is hitting hard. Announced on April 10, 2025, this move has split opinions: some see China digging in to win this trade war, while others predict a bloodbath for Chinese stocks. With Trump dangling threats like forcing a TikTok sale or delisting Chinese firms, the tension’s palpable. So, between the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Tech Index, which has the edge to bounce back? And which Chinese stock still has your trust? Let’s dive into the chaos with fresh data, market vibes, and a sprinkle of strategy—beca
TOPThis crash has been a huge buying opportunity for the little guys like me. I have tripled my portfolio. This crash is a God send when the market comes back. And we all know it will.
4.85K
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2025-04-11
$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ Bought more nvo to dca. Nvo is a high quality stock with a wide economic moat. Morningstar's estimated fair value for the stock is $89. It has a buy rating with an average target price of $107.96 that is almost a 75% upside from today's price
NVO
04-11 03:41
USNovo-Nordisk A/S
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Open | 60.70 9 | -9.33% Holding |
TOPYour dedication to value investing and swing trading is evident. Wishing you even greater success in your financial endeavors. 🤩 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.
3.73K
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2025-04-11
Is the Recession Shock Imminent? Should Investors Buy the Dip After the Market Plunge?
The US stock market is undergoing significant turmoil, with concerns over the economy intensifying. President Trump’s announcement of large-scale tariffs has triggered a wave of panic selling in global markets. Further complicating the market outlook, several economic indicators point toward the possibility of a recession. Experts believe that whether the market will experience another massive sell-off depends largely on whether fears of an imminent economic recession are debunked.Growing Recession Risk in the US EconomyEconomic Data Signals Trouble AheadRecent economic predictions paint a grim picture. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model has downgraded its outlook for first-quarter 2025 US real GDP growth from 2.3% to a contraction of 2.825%, marking the worst quarter for the US ec
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2025-04-11
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Discussion On "Tariff Victims" of Big-Techs; What Does Recession Sell Put Mean?
Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Recession’s back?Market volatility due to tariffs in effect has been no less than the 2020 period, in addition to the stock market's Monday plunge, identified by Trump as a "short-term sacrifice", the volatility of U.S. debt may be more concerned about the market (elevated risk of recession)?At present, after the first three days of this week's fermentation and "withdrawal", the short-term risk of tariffs has basically been cleared, and how the end of the future, basically in the current market has been Price-in the range, so it will not be too sensitive.But overall, the risk of the medium-term still can not be ignored, even if the final landing is 10% tariffs, the economic growth rate may slow down from Q2, embodied in the corporate earnings r
TOPNormally Apple does well during May-July but the tariffs needs to be sorted out by next week!
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2025-04-11
Tariffs lead to stagflation, which options strategies are better to use?
In recent years, the trade policy turmoil in the United States has been escalating, especially a series of tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, which have caused violent market shocks. Some economists describe this tariff shock as a "stagflationary shock", arguing that it will not only push up inflation, but may also slow economic growth, thus exposing the United States to the risk of stagflation. This article will explore how U.S. bonds, stocks, and exchange rates generally change during the stagflation, and how investors can use options strategies to profit from them.1. Macroeconomic environment in the context of stagflationStagflation usually refers to the high inflation rate while economic growth is stagnant or sluggish. This situation has brought a dilemma for poli
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2025-04-11
Option Strategies: NVDA, TSLA& .SPX
1.Every pop higher is a gift. It's a gift that shouldn't be taken for granted. This type of environment is not easy. Seeing 300 pt swings each day is NOT a normal trading environment.Seeing $S&P 500(.SPX)$ premiums at 7 to 9x of fair value is insane. If you size too largely your account is going to get destroyed quickly. SIZE DOWN and try to see the big picture. The market is designed to go up and it WILL over time. The short term we will continue to see extreme volatility until the Tariff situation settles down.Paytience!!2.TRADE PLAN for Lotto Friday ✅ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Expect more volatility tomorrow. We saw another 250 pt intraday range day. SPX needs through 5354 to test 5400,5460. If SPX brea