To The Moon

Comparing the changes in open interest on October 8 with October 7, the market’s collective positioning was far from aggressive: put open interest in crude oil and the Nasdaq-100 expanded significantly faster than call open interest, suggesting that market participants were paying for downside protection. Gold, by contrast, continued to see calls dominate both open interest and trading volume. Increases in options open interest can reflect hedging, premium collection by option sellers, or spread strategies, making them more useful for assessing risk appetite and identifying key areas of positioning. WTI Crude Oil: Stronger Demand for Downside Protection, with a Cautious Near-Term Outlook The defensive positioning in crude oil options strengthened further on October 8. Put open interest ros

Chip stocks took a hit on Thursday, with Intel falling 5.34%, Broadcom dropping 4.35%, AMD losing 3.90% and NVIDIA declining 2.94%. Yet AMD CEO Lisa Su delivered a very different message in Taipei: AI chip demand continues to exceed supply, even as production expands into 2026. The problem isn’t simply whether customers want more chips. High-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging and wafer capacity remain constraints on how quickly the industry can deliver them. So why are chip stocks falling if demand is still so strong? There are two sides to this story. 🐂 The bull case If demand continues to exceed supply, chipmakers could maintain strong pricing and benefit from further investment in AI infrastructure. Production constraints may limit near-term deliveries, but they also highlight h

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Intel(INTC)$   Thursday’s sell-off raises an interesting question. If AI chip demand still exceeds supply, why are semiconductor stocks falling? Intel dropped 5.34%, Broadcom lost 4.35%, AMD fell 3.90%, and Nvidia declined 2.94%, according to the figures reported in the market update. Meanwhile, AMD CEO Lisa Su has indicated that AI chip demand continues to exceed supply, with production constrained by factors including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging and wafer capacity. The interesting part is that strong d

I think the more fragile assumption is the idea that AI-related memory and hard-drive shortages will stay tight for years. Toshiba’s expansion shows that high prices can eventually bring more supply, so I would be cautious about assuming today’s pricing power will last indefinitely. I am still more comfortable with AI compute, where $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ continue to benefit from strong infrastructure demand. However, valuations are high, so expectations also need to stay realistic. I am also watching long-term yields closely. Even with October rate-hike odds falling, the 10-year yield remains above 5%, which could p

Nvidia authorized its historic $235 billion buyback program, it created a massive, structural safety net for its stock. The behavior of a buyback would be when a stock trades at or near all-time highs and a company implements a massive buyback, the entity "buying the highs" is primarily the stock itself, in this case, it is $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, we would also see alongside institutional forces which would be seen to mechanically required to follow. 1. Introduction: The Magnitude of $235 Billion Corporate capital allocation reaches rare milestones when scale, profitability, and market valuation intersect at historic magnitudes. Nvidia’s announcement of an additional $150 billion share buyback authorization, cementing a total remaining repurchase capacity

I think compute is resting on the more fragile assumption. The bullish compute thesis assumes AI capex can keep growing rapidly and, more importantly, that customers will eventually generate enough economic value from AI to justify all that infrastructure. If monetisation disappoints, hyperscalers could moderate spending surprisingly quickly. Memory is cyclical and vulnerable to oversupply, but demand is increasingly tied to real hardware requirements. AI accelerators need large amounts of high-bandwidth memory, while servers still need DRAM and storage. So I see memory’s risk as more about supply, pricing and cycles, whereas compute carries a bigger valuation and AI-ROI assumption. Both can fall, but if the market starts questioning whether every extra dollar of AI capex produces adequat

I will still do my weekly DCA investments 

My view: Memory looks more fragile. Memory/storage prices depend heavily on supply shortages. If Toshiba or other companies increase production, prices and profits could fall quickly. Compute like NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom has a stronger long-term driver: AI demand. Even if hardware supply improves, AI companies still need more computing power for training and inference. However, compute stocks are not risk-free. Their valuations are already high, so slower AI spending could cause a sharp correction. The weak jobs report is also important. If the economy weakens and the Fed cuts rates, that could support high-growth tech stocks—but falling yields caused by a recession would be a different story. Bottom line: I would be more cautious about memory/storage because the shortage can disapp

The indices: a weak jobs report, and all three still closed higher All three indices closed higher on Friday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.19 per cent to 27,190.86, having reached 27,353.68 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.73 per cent to 7,722.72; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.49 per cent to 51,176.96. The September employment report came out that morning: non-farm payrolls added 29,000, where the market had looked for somewhere between 85,000 and 90,000, and the unemployment rate went from 4.1 per cent in August to 4.2 per cent, where a flat reading had been expected. The previous tw

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  just put $235 billion behind its own stock. That sounds like an enormous vote of confidence. On September 28, Nvidia’s board added another $150 billion to its share-repurchase authorization, taking the remaining authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. Nvidia described it as the largest increase to a buyback authorization in history.  Then came the market reaction. Nvidia hit an intraday record of $237.88 on Friday before closing at $233.95, up 1.34%. Its market value finished around $5.7 trillion.  But here’s the question I keep coming back to: At these prices, is buying back stock the best use of Nvidia’s enormous cash flow? The bull case is straightforward. Buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding,

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  just gave investors another reason to stay bullish — and another reason to question the valuation. The board has lifted Nvidia’s buyback authorization by $150 billion, taking the total authorization to a massive $235 billion through January 2028. The stock closed at $233.95, up 1.34%, after hitting a record $237.88 intraday. Nvidia’s market cap is now approaching $6 trillion. That is where the buyback story gets interesting. 🐂 Bulls see a powerful support A $235B authorization gives Nvidia enormous firepower to return capital to shareholders. Buybacks can reduce the share count, increase earnings per share and provide additional demand for the stock. And Nvidia clearly has the cash generation to make aggressive capital re

Nvidia Says 2x Chips — Is That Enough to Keep AI Stocks Running? One number was enough to reignite AI hardware stocks: Jensen Huang expects Nvidia to sell twice as many chips next year as this year. Nvidia gained 2.54% Thursday, while AMD, Marvell and Broadcom jumped even more as semiconductor stocks staged another broad rebound. But there is an important detail behind the headline. 2x demand ≠ 2x revenue Huang’s comment wasn’t formal revenue guidance. Nvidia had already told investors in August that customer forecasts point to demand doubling next year. Yet management expects roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, explicitly describing that outlook as supply-constrained. In other words: The problem isn’t finding enough demand. It’s producing enough compute. That may actually be the m

Jensen Huang Drops a Number — Why Did AI Hardware Stage a Full Comeback? Just when critics claimed that the artificial intelligence hardware buildout was cooling down, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang injected fresh fuel into the bullish narrative by confirming stellar manufacturing and shipping velocity for their next-generation Blackwell architecture.Unprecedented Enterprise Backlogs: The scale of demand for high-density computing clusters is far outstripping current packaging capabilities. Every major hyperscaler is aggressively placing multi-billion dollar orders to prevent falling behind in model training infrastructure.Downstream Beneficiaries: This hardware validation is triggering massive tailwinds across the supply chain, directly lifting liquid cooling providers

Do you believe that $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s sinking stock valuation is sending a warning signal about the chipmaker’s prospects to maintaining its booming profit growth ? Do you think this is true ? Let’s find out. Valuation Paradox: Cheap Price vs High Growth NVDA’s stock is currently priced cheaply relative to its earnings, dropping to less than 17x its expected profit for the coming year. To put the drop into perspective, the stock's price multiple was twice as high in 2025, even though company's financial growth was slower back then. (see below) Additionally, that valuation has fallen significantly from more than 25x estimated earnings as recently as May 2026. Management’s View: Misunderstood & Mispriced The gap between (1) NVDA's strong business

Jensen Huang drops a number. Why AI hardware came all the way back, and how I'm playing it with sell puts Written Wednesday morning SGT, using Tuesday's US close. The number On September 17, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company will double the number of chips it sells next year. His exact words were: "I expect Nvidia to sell twice as many chips as this next year as we do this year." He said it at the AI summit King Charles III hosted at Dumfries House in Scotland. The comment covers all of Nvidia's chips, not just GPUs. That includes the flagship Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin GPUs, Grace CPUs, optical networking chips, automotive platforms and Jetson robotics processors. It also builds on guidance Nvidia already gave. On the August 26 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress laid out a 70%

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ No matter you like it or not, every single company in this world is jumping on the AI bandwagon, whether it makes sense or not. However, is the valuation overstretching again after a retracement in August and September? Heading to 4th quarter of the year, I am taking a defensive stance, not overexposing myself to any particular sector.[Tongue] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Breakout Setup & AI Data Center Momentum

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ crossed a $1 trillion market value for the first time on September 21, but the milestone is less important than the expectations embedded within it. AMD rose almost 10% to a record after investors returned to AI hardware and rewarded its shift from selling individual processors toward complete computing systems. Reuters' September 21 report records the milestone and notes that the shares had risen 185% in 2026, far ahead of the Nasdaq. The bullish thesis rests on operating evidence, not only enthusiasm. AMD's second-quarter revenue increased 50% year over year to $11.5 billion, while Data Center revenue more than doubled to $6.7 billion as EPYC CPUs and Instinct accelerators gained adoption. AMD's official second-quart

For weeks, the market has been asking the same question: Has the AI trade finally peaked? Then Jensen Huang dropped a very different signal. Nvidia expects to ship roughly twice as many chips next year as this year. And the market reacted. $AMD +6.36% $MRVL +4.81% $NVDA +2.54% $AVGO +2.29% Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +3%+ What makes this interesting isn’t simply that Nvidia was up. It’s that the move came after a week when the biggest conversation was about an AI slowdown. Suddenly, the debate has shifted from: “Is AI spending slowing?” to: “What if demand is still accelerating?” But there’s an important reality check. A forecast is not the same as orders. And 2× chip shipments doesn’t mean 2× revenue or 2× profit. So I’m watching what happens after the headline fades. Do semiconducto

One sentence from Jensen Huang was enough to wake up the entire semiconductor trade: Nvidia expects to sell roughly twice as many chips next year as this year. And suddenly the whole AI hardware chain started moving. 🚀 $AMD +6.36% 🚀 $MRVL +4.81% 🚀 $NVDA +2.54% 🚀 $AVGO +2.29% 📈 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +3%+ But here’s what caught my attention: Nvidia wasn’t the biggest winner. If this were simply a “buy Nvidia” reaction, you wouldn’t necessarily expect competitors, networking names and custom-chip exposure to move so strongly at the same time. That makes the move more interesting. The market may be starting to price AI infrastructure as a much bigger ecosystem, rather than a single-stock story. And there is some fundamental support behind that argument. Nvidia recently said demand i

Comparing the changes in open interest on October 8 with October 7, the market’s collective positioning was far from aggressive: put open interest in crude oil and the Nasdaq-100 expanded significantly faster than call open interest, suggesting that market participants were paying for downside protection. Gold, by contrast, continued to see calls dominate both open interest and trading volume. Increases in options open interest can reflect hedging, premium collection by option sellers, or spread strategies, making them more useful for assessing risk appetite and identifying key areas of positioning. WTI Crude Oil: Stronger Demand for Downside Protection, with a Cautious Near-Term Outlook The defensive positioning in crude oil options strengthened further on October 8. Put open interest ros

Chip stocks took a hit on Thursday, with Intel falling 5.34%, Broadcom dropping 4.35%, AMD losing 3.90% and NVIDIA declining 2.94%. Yet AMD CEO Lisa Su delivered a very different message in Taipei: AI chip demand continues to exceed supply, even as production expands into 2026. The problem isn’t simply whether customers want more chips. High-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging and wafer capacity remain constraints on how quickly the industry can deliver them. So why are chip stocks falling if demand is still so strong? There are two sides to this story. 🐂 The bull case If demand continues to exceed supply, chipmakers could maintain strong pricing and benefit from further investment in AI infrastructure. Production constraints may limit near-term deliveries, but they also highlight h

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Intel(INTC)$   Thursday’s sell-off raises an interesting question. If AI chip demand still exceeds supply, why are semiconductor stocks falling? Intel dropped 5.34%, Broadcom lost 4.35%, AMD fell 3.90%, and Nvidia declined 2.94%, according to the figures reported in the market update. Meanwhile, AMD CEO Lisa Su has indicated that AI chip demand continues to exceed supply, with production constrained by factors including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging and wafer capacity. The interesting part is that strong d

Nvidia authorized its historic $235 billion buyback program, it created a massive, structural safety net for its stock. The behavior of a buyback would be when a stock trades at or near all-time highs and a company implements a massive buyback, the entity "buying the highs" is primarily the stock itself, in this case, it is $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, we would also see alongside institutional forces which would be seen to mechanically required to follow. 1. Introduction: The Magnitude of $235 Billion Corporate capital allocation reaches rare milestones when scale, profitability, and market valuation intersect at historic magnitudes. Nvidia’s announcement of an additional $150 billion share buyback authorization, cementing a total remaining repurchase capacity

The indices: a weak jobs report, and all three still closed higher All three indices closed higher on Friday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.19 per cent to 27,190.86, having reached 27,353.68 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.73 per cent to 7,722.72; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.49 per cent to 51,176.96. The September employment report came out that morning: non-farm payrolls added 29,000, where the market had looked for somewhere between 85,000 and 90,000, and the unemployment rate went from 4.1 per cent in August to 4.2 per cent, where a flat reading had been expected. The previous tw

I think the more fragile assumption is the idea that AI-related memory and hard-drive shortages will stay tight for years. Toshiba’s expansion shows that high prices can eventually bring more supply, so I would be cautious about assuming today’s pricing power will last indefinitely. I am still more comfortable with AI compute, where $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ continue to benefit from strong infrastructure demand. However, valuations are high, so expectations also need to stay realistic. I am also watching long-term yields closely. Even with October rate-hike odds falling, the 10-year yield remains above 5%, which could p

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  just put $235 billion behind its own stock. That sounds like an enormous vote of confidence. On September 28, Nvidia’s board added another $150 billion to its share-repurchase authorization, taking the remaining authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. Nvidia described it as the largest increase to a buyback authorization in history.  Then came the market reaction. Nvidia hit an intraday record of $237.88 on Friday before closing at $233.95, up 1.34%. Its market value finished around $5.7 trillion.  But here’s the question I keep coming back to: At these prices, is buying back stock the best use of Nvidia’s enormous cash flow? The bull case is straightforward. Buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding,

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  just gave investors another reason to stay bullish — and another reason to question the valuation. The board has lifted Nvidia’s buyback authorization by $150 billion, taking the total authorization to a massive $235 billion through January 2028. The stock closed at $233.95, up 1.34%, after hitting a record $237.88 intraday. Nvidia’s market cap is now approaching $6 trillion. That is where the buyback story gets interesting. 🐂 Bulls see a powerful support A $235B authorization gives Nvidia enormous firepower to return capital to shareholders. Buybacks can reduce the share count, increase earnings per share and provide additional demand for the stock. And Nvidia clearly has the cash generation to make aggressive capital re

I think compute is resting on the more fragile assumption. The bullish compute thesis assumes AI capex can keep growing rapidly and, more importantly, that customers will eventually generate enough economic value from AI to justify all that infrastructure. If monetisation disappoints, hyperscalers could moderate spending surprisingly quickly. Memory is cyclical and vulnerable to oversupply, but demand is increasingly tied to real hardware requirements. AI accelerators need large amounts of high-bandwidth memory, while servers still need DRAM and storage. So I see memory’s risk as more about supply, pricing and cycles, whereas compute carries a bigger valuation and AI-ROI assumption. Both can fall, but if the market starts questioning whether every extra dollar of AI capex produces adequat

My view: Memory looks more fragile. Memory/storage prices depend heavily on supply shortages. If Toshiba or other companies increase production, prices and profits could fall quickly. Compute like NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom has a stronger long-term driver: AI demand. Even if hardware supply improves, AI companies still need more computing power for training and inference. However, compute stocks are not risk-free. Their valuations are already high, so slower AI spending could cause a sharp correction. The weak jobs report is also important. If the economy weakens and the Fed cuts rates, that could support high-growth tech stocks—but falling yields caused by a recession would be a different story. Bottom line: I would be more cautious about memory/storage because the shortage can disapp

I will still do my weekly DCA investments 

Do you believe that $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s sinking stock valuation is sending a warning signal about the chipmaker’s prospects to maintaining its booming profit growth ? Do you think this is true ? Let’s find out. Valuation Paradox: Cheap Price vs High Growth NVDA’s stock is currently priced cheaply relative to its earnings, dropping to less than 17x its expected profit for the coming year. To put the drop into perspective, the stock's price multiple was twice as high in 2025, even though company's financial growth was slower back then. (see below) Additionally, that valuation has fallen significantly from more than 25x estimated earnings as recently as May 2026. Management’s View: Misunderstood & Mispriced The gap between (1) NVDA's strong business

Jensen Huang drops a number. Why AI hardware came all the way back, and how I'm playing it with sell puts Written Wednesday morning SGT, using Tuesday's US close. The number On September 17, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company will double the number of chips it sells next year. His exact words were: "I expect Nvidia to sell twice as many chips as this next year as we do this year." He said it at the AI summit King Charles III hosted at Dumfries House in Scotland. The comment covers all of Nvidia's chips, not just GPUs. That includes the flagship Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin GPUs, Grace CPUs, optical networking chips, automotive platforms and Jetson robotics processors. It also builds on guidance Nvidia already gave. On the August 26 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress laid out a 70%

Tonight, I reviewed the fundamental backdrop through four lenses: Fed tightening and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb; the World Gold Council report ahead of a packed central-bank week; China’s financial-sector agenda alongside inflation data; and the AI leaders amid US-China tariff tensions. I then mapped the next positioning framework around persistent rate pressure, rising debt burdens, Middle East risks, gold ETF flows, central-bank policy, and shifts across gold, silver and oil. The outlook also reflects energy costs, compute demand, softer AI momentum, distillation allegations, tariff risks and the yuan, which together will shape medium- to long-term capital flows and asset allocation. $标普500ETF(SPY)$

One of today’s more interesting semiconductor stories is not about a new GPU or a new AI model. Reuters reported that SK hynix is in exploratory talks with Intel about producing memory chips in the U.S. for the first time. One option under discussion is for SK hynix to use part of Intel’s Ohio fab capacity. Another possibility is a joint structure involving SK hynix, Intel and potentially major cloud customers. The talks are still at an early stage, and there is no final decision yet on product scope, investment size or structure. What makes this interesting is that this is not simply another “chipmaker builds in America” story. SK hynix already has a U.S. footprint, including its advanced AI-memory packaging project in Indiana. If front-end memory production also moves closer to U.S. cust

Nvidia Says 2x Chips — Is That Enough to Keep AI Stocks Running? One number was enough to reignite AI hardware stocks: Jensen Huang expects Nvidia to sell twice as many chips next year as this year. Nvidia gained 2.54% Thursday, while AMD, Marvell and Broadcom jumped even more as semiconductor stocks staged another broad rebound. But there is an important detail behind the headline. 2x demand ≠ 2x revenue Huang’s comment wasn’t formal revenue guidance. Nvidia had already told investors in August that customer forecasts point to demand doubling next year. Yet management expects roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, explicitly describing that outlook as supply-constrained. In other words: The problem isn’t finding enough demand. It’s producing enough compute. That may actually be the m

The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  📈 Beginner Guide to QQQ ETFs: QQQ, QQQM and QYLD If you are new to investing, you may have come across ETFs such as QQQ, QQQM and QYLD. They can look confusing at first because all three are connected to the Nasdaq-100, but they have very different purposes. The easiest way to understand them is this: QQQ = growth and popularity QQQM = similar Nasdaq-100 exposure, designed more for long-term investors QYLD = Nasdaq-100 exposure combined with an income strategy The screenshot shows three ETFs: Invesco QQQ, Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM), and Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD). The prices shown in the screenshot are simply the prices at that particular point in time, so investors should not treat them as permanent pri

Something changed in the AI trade. And I don’t think the most interesting part is the selloff. It’s what the market assumed the selloff meant. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has called for slowing the pace of frontiear AI capability development as safety concerns intensify. Sam Altman agreed that the frontier needs to be paced. Elon Musk backed the warning. Wall Street heard one thing: SLOWER AI = LESS AI INFRASTRUCTURE. And investors hit the hardware stack. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell roughly 6%. $NVDA fell about 3.5%. $AMD fell about 5.6%. $MU fell about 6.7%. Semiconductor equipment names were smashed too, with Lam Research and Applied Materials falling roughly 8% and 7% respectively. AI infrastructure names weren’t spared either. But here’s the question I can’t get past: WHAT

As hyperscale technology conglomerates — such as Microsoft, $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Alphabet, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon, and Meta—signal potential moderation or pacing adjustments in their capital expenditure (capex) growth rates, public markets have begun pricing in an inevitable AI infrastructure "reality check." In this article, we will be looking at how to navigate the AI Capex deceleration, as deceleration in hyperscale AI capex does not mark the end of the semiconductor super-cycle; 1. The Capex Reality Check: Why Hyperscalers Are Recalibrating AI Infrastructure Spend The primary catalyst behind market anxiety regarding semiconductor stocks is the widening gap between hyperscaler infrastructure capex and