To The Moon

I will still do my weekly DCA investments 

My view: Memory looks more fragile. Memory/storage prices depend heavily on supply shortages. If Toshiba or other companies increase production, prices and profits could fall quickly. Compute like NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom has a stronger long-term driver: AI demand. Even if hardware supply improves, AI companies still need more computing power for training and inference. However, compute stocks are not risk-free. Their valuations are already high, so slower AI spending could cause a sharp correction. The weak jobs report is also important. If the economy weakens and the Fed cuts rates, that could support high-growth tech stocks—but falling yields caused by a recession would be a different story. Bottom line: I would be more cautious about memory/storage because the shortage can disapp

The indices: a weak jobs report, and all three still closed higher All three indices closed higher on Friday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.19 per cent to 27,190.86, having reached 27,353.68 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.73 per cent to 7,722.72; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.49 per cent to 51,176.96. The September employment report came out that morning: non-farm payrolls added 29,000, where the market had looked for somewhere between 85,000 and 90,000, and the unemployment rate went from 4.1 per cent in August to 4.2 per cent, where a flat reading had been expected. The previous tw

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  just put $235 billion behind its own stock. That sounds like an enormous vote of confidence. On September 28, Nvidia’s board added another $150 billion to its share-repurchase authorization, taking the remaining authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. Nvidia described it as the largest increase to a buyback authorization in history.  Then came the market reaction. Nvidia hit an intraday record of $237.88 on Friday before closing at $233.95, up 1.34%. Its market value finished around $5.7 trillion.  But here’s the question I keep coming back to: At these prices, is buying back stock the best use of Nvidia’s enormous cash flow? The bull case is straightforward. Buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding,

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  just gave investors another reason to stay bullish — and another reason to question the valuation. The board has lifted Nvidia’s buyback authorization by $150 billion, taking the total authorization to a massive $235 billion through January 2028. The stock closed at $233.95, up 1.34%, after hitting a record $237.88 intraday. Nvidia’s market cap is now approaching $6 trillion. That is where the buyback story gets interesting. 🐂 Bulls see a powerful support A $235B authorization gives Nvidia enormous firepower to return capital to shareholders. Buybacks can reduce the share count, increase earnings per share and provide additional demand for the stock. And Nvidia clearly has the cash generation to make aggressive capital re

Nvidia Says 2x Chips — Is That Enough to Keep AI Stocks Running? One number was enough to reignite AI hardware stocks: Jensen Huang expects Nvidia to sell twice as many chips next year as this year. Nvidia gained 2.54% Thursday, while AMD, Marvell and Broadcom jumped even more as semiconductor stocks staged another broad rebound. But there is an important detail behind the headline. 2x demand ≠ 2x revenue Huang’s comment wasn’t formal revenue guidance. Nvidia had already told investors in August that customer forecasts point to demand doubling next year. Yet management expects roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, explicitly describing that outlook as supply-constrained. In other words: The problem isn’t finding enough demand. It’s producing enough compute. That may actually be the m

Jensen Huang Drops a Number — Why Did AI Hardware Stage a Full Comeback? Just when critics claimed that the artificial intelligence hardware buildout was cooling down, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang injected fresh fuel into the bullish narrative by confirming stellar manufacturing and shipping velocity for their next-generation Blackwell architecture.Unprecedented Enterprise Backlogs: The scale of demand for high-density computing clusters is far outstripping current packaging capabilities. Every major hyperscaler is aggressively placing multi-billion dollar orders to prevent falling behind in model training infrastructure.Downstream Beneficiaries: This hardware validation is triggering massive tailwinds across the supply chain, directly lifting liquid cooling providers

Do you believe that $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s sinking stock valuation is sending a warning signal about the chipmaker’s prospects to maintaining its booming profit growth ? Do you think this is true ? Let’s find out. Valuation Paradox: Cheap Price vs High Growth NVDA’s stock is currently priced cheaply relative to its earnings, dropping to less than 17x its expected profit for the coming year. To put the drop into perspective, the stock's price multiple was twice as high in 2025, even though company's financial growth was slower back then. (see below) Additionally, that valuation has fallen significantly from more than 25x estimated earnings as recently as May 2026. Management’s View: Misunderstood & Mispriced The gap between (1) NVDA's strong business

Jensen Huang drops a number. Why AI hardware came all the way back, and how I'm playing it with sell puts Written Wednesday morning SGT, using Tuesday's US close. The number On September 17, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company will double the number of chips it sells next year. His exact words were: "I expect Nvidia to sell twice as many chips as this next year as we do this year." He said it at the AI summit King Charles III hosted at Dumfries House in Scotland. The comment covers all of Nvidia's chips, not just GPUs. That includes the flagship Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin GPUs, Grace CPUs, optical networking chips, automotive platforms and Jetson robotics processors. It also builds on guidance Nvidia already gave. On the August 26 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress laid out a 70%

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ No matter you like it or not, every single company in this world is jumping on the AI bandwagon, whether it makes sense or not. However, is the valuation overstretching again after a retracement in August and September? Heading to 4th quarter of the year, I am taking a defensive stance, not overexposing myself to any particular sector.[Tongue] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Breakout Setup & AI Data Center Momentum

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ crossed a $1 trillion market value for the first time on September 21, but the milestone is less important than the expectations embedded within it. AMD rose almost 10% to a record after investors returned to AI hardware and rewarded its shift from selling individual processors toward complete computing systems. Reuters' September 21 report records the milestone and notes that the shares had risen 185% in 2026, far ahead of the Nasdaq. The bullish thesis rests on operating evidence, not only enthusiasm. AMD's second-quarter revenue increased 50% year over year to $11.5 billion, while Data Center revenue more than doubled to $6.7 billion as EPYC CPUs and Instinct accelerators gained adoption. AMD's official second-quart

For weeks, the market has been asking the same question: Has the AI trade finally peaked? Then Jensen Huang dropped a very different signal. Nvidia expects to ship roughly twice as many chips next year as this year. And the market reacted. $AMD +6.36% $MRVL +4.81% $NVDA +2.54% $AVGO +2.29% Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +3%+ What makes this interesting isn’t simply that Nvidia was up. It’s that the move came after a week when the biggest conversation was about an AI slowdown. Suddenly, the debate has shifted from: “Is AI spending slowing?” to: “What if demand is still accelerating?” But there’s an important reality check. A forecast is not the same as orders. And 2× chip shipments doesn’t mean 2× revenue or 2× profit. So I’m watching what happens after the headline fades. Do semiconducto

One sentence from Jensen Huang was enough to wake up the entire semiconductor trade: Nvidia expects to sell roughly twice as many chips next year as this year. And suddenly the whole AI hardware chain started moving. 🚀 $AMD +6.36% 🚀 $MRVL +4.81% 🚀 $NVDA +2.54% 🚀 $AVGO +2.29% 📈 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +3%+ But here’s what caught my attention: Nvidia wasn’t the biggest winner. If this were simply a “buy Nvidia” reaction, you wouldn’t necessarily expect competitors, networking names and custom-chip exposure to move so strongly at the same time. That makes the move more interesting. The market may be starting to price AI infrastructure as a much bigger ecosystem, rather than a single-stock story. And there is some fundamental support behind that argument. Nvidia recently said demand i

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : What If The Next Big Move Starts Monday?

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The Level I Want To See Hold Before Getting Bullish

The underlying numbers make the comment more credible than a purely sentiment-driven rally. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   latest quarter produced $96.2bn revenue, +106% YoY, with Data Center at $89.0bn, +117%. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$    Data Center revenue reached $6.7bn, +107% YoY, while $Broadcom(AVGO)$   AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7bn, +221% YoY, and Broadcom expects $21.7bn in the current quarter. The interesting development this week is that money is already moving beyond the obvious GPU names. On Friday, $Lam Research(LRCX)$ ,$Applied

AI  is like Mopseyfrom the fairy tales . Started slow and small and as the programmers got their heads around the clitches in the early years it took off . It isn't far off the stage of not needing human intervention at all . Machine learning has become such a big part of industry today that many of the traditional semi-skilled labouring jobs are going to disappear. The upward trend won't stop , it will slow maybe but the growth of the technology will always be upward  beyond human control . That includes the people that think they are controlling the situation at the where our quest for wealthand power moment.  Machines will teach other machines and humanity will be sidelined . It's happening already in certain industries . Those of us who profit from the situation now

A 500% jump in memory prices can be good news for memory makers in the short term, but it is usually bad news for buyers, margins downstream, and often a sign that the cycle is getting stretched. Recent market data shows DRAM and NAND prices are still elevated, driven largely by AI infrastructure demand, but the pace of gains has started to slow from the sharpest months. What the price surge means - For memory producers such as DRAM and NAND suppliers, higher prices usually mean better revenue and stronger near-term profitability if supply is tight. - For electronics OEMs, server builders, and PC/device makers**, it raises input costs and can compress margins unless they can pass costs on to customers. - For consumers it can mean higher prices for PCs, upgrades, phones, and storage product

The AI slowdown debate just got a little harder to ignore. Jensen Huang says Nvidia expects to sell 2× as many chips next year as this year. That’s a huge statement — but it’s still a forecast, not a book of signed orders.  And the market clearly noticed: 🚀 AMD +6.36% 🔥 Marvell +4.81% 🟢 Nvidia +2.54% ⚡ Broadcom +2.29% The bigger signal for me is what happens beyond Nvidia. More AI compute means more demand for networking, custom silicon, memory and data-centre infrastructure. Thursday’s semiconductor rally also coincided with expanded Marvell–GlobalFoundries capacity for AI data-centre connectivity.  But there’s still one giant question: Does 2× chip demand eventually translate into 2× the economic returns for the AI ecosystem?

The indices: a weak jobs report, and all three still closed higher All three indices closed higher on Friday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.19 per cent to 27,190.86, having reached 27,353.68 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.73 per cent to 7,722.72; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.49 per cent to 51,176.96. The September employment report came out that morning: non-farm payrolls added 29,000, where the market had looked for somewhere between 85,000 and 90,000, and the unemployment rate went from 4.1 per cent in August to 4.2 per cent, where a flat reading had been expected. The previous tw

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  just put $235 billion behind its own stock. That sounds like an enormous vote of confidence. On September 28, Nvidia’s board added another $150 billion to its share-repurchase authorization, taking the remaining authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. Nvidia described it as the largest increase to a buyback authorization in history.  Then came the market reaction. Nvidia hit an intraday record of $237.88 on Friday before closing at $233.95, up 1.34%. Its market value finished around $5.7 trillion.  But here’s the question I keep coming back to: At these prices, is buying back stock the best use of Nvidia’s enormous cash flow? The bull case is straightforward. Buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding,

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  just gave investors another reason to stay bullish — and another reason to question the valuation. The board has lifted Nvidia’s buyback authorization by $150 billion, taking the total authorization to a massive $235 billion through January 2028. The stock closed at $233.95, up 1.34%, after hitting a record $237.88 intraday. Nvidia’s market cap is now approaching $6 trillion. That is where the buyback story gets interesting. 🐂 Bulls see a powerful support A $235B authorization gives Nvidia enormous firepower to return capital to shareholders. Buybacks can reduce the share count, increase earnings per share and provide additional demand for the stock. And Nvidia clearly has the cash generation to make aggressive capital re

My view: Memory looks more fragile. Memory/storage prices depend heavily on supply shortages. If Toshiba or other companies increase production, prices and profits could fall quickly. Compute like NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom has a stronger long-term driver: AI demand. Even if hardware supply improves, AI companies still need more computing power for training and inference. However, compute stocks are not risk-free. Their valuations are already high, so slower AI spending could cause a sharp correction. The weak jobs report is also important. If the economy weakens and the Fed cuts rates, that could support high-growth tech stocks—but falling yields caused by a recession would be a different story. Bottom line: I would be more cautious about memory/storage because the shortage can disapp

I will still do my weekly DCA investments 

Do you believe that $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s sinking stock valuation is sending a warning signal about the chipmaker’s prospects to maintaining its booming profit growth ? Do you think this is true ? Let’s find out. Valuation Paradox: Cheap Price vs High Growth NVDA’s stock is currently priced cheaply relative to its earnings, dropping to less than 17x its expected profit for the coming year. To put the drop into perspective, the stock's price multiple was twice as high in 2025, even though company's financial growth was slower back then. (see below) Additionally, that valuation has fallen significantly from more than 25x estimated earnings as recently as May 2026. Management’s View: Misunderstood & Mispriced The gap between (1) NVDA's strong business

Jensen Huang drops a number. Why AI hardware came all the way back, and how I'm playing it with sell puts Written Wednesday morning SGT, using Tuesday's US close. The number On September 17, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company will double the number of chips it sells next year. His exact words were: "I expect Nvidia to sell twice as many chips as this next year as we do this year." He said it at the AI summit King Charles III hosted at Dumfries House in Scotland. The comment covers all of Nvidia's chips, not just GPUs. That includes the flagship Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin GPUs, Grace CPUs, optical networking chips, automotive platforms and Jetson robotics processors. It also builds on guidance Nvidia already gave. On the August 26 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress laid out a 70%

Tonight, I reviewed the fundamental backdrop through four lenses: Fed tightening and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb; the World Gold Council report ahead of a packed central-bank week; China’s financial-sector agenda alongside inflation data; and the AI leaders amid US-China tariff tensions. I then mapped the next positioning framework around persistent rate pressure, rising debt burdens, Middle East risks, gold ETF flows, central-bank policy, and shifts across gold, silver and oil. The outlook also reflects energy costs, compute demand, softer AI momentum, distillation allegations, tariff risks and the yuan, which together will shape medium- to long-term capital flows and asset allocation. $标普500ETF(SPY)$

On Wednesday $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.48 per cent lower, its third session in a row heading down. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ rose 6.55 per cent the same day to close at US$653.69. The whole market was backing away while one of the largest companies in it put on six and a half points, and those look like two unrelated things. They are one thing. What is holding the indexes down is rates: Brent crude moved back above US$100 for the first time in two months, the inflation print lands on Friday, the ten-year Treasury yield was pushed to 4.85 per cent and the thirty-year broke above 5.30 per cent. The Treasury stepped in that day and raised the cap on its buybacks of ten-

One of today’s more interesting semiconductor stories is not about a new GPU or a new AI model. Reuters reported that SK hynix is in exploratory talks with Intel about producing memory chips in the U.S. for the first time. One option under discussion is for SK hynix to use part of Intel’s Ohio fab capacity. Another possibility is a joint structure involving SK hynix, Intel and potentially major cloud customers. The talks are still at an early stage, and there is no final decision yet on product scope, investment size or structure. What makes this interesting is that this is not simply another “chipmaker builds in America” story. SK hynix already has a U.S. footprint, including its advanced AI-memory packaging project in Indiana. If front-end memory production also moves closer to U.S. cust

Nvidia Says 2x Chips — Is That Enough to Keep AI Stocks Running? One number was enough to reignite AI hardware stocks: Jensen Huang expects Nvidia to sell twice as many chips next year as this year. Nvidia gained 2.54% Thursday, while AMD, Marvell and Broadcom jumped even more as semiconductor stocks staged another broad rebound. But there is an important detail behind the headline. 2x demand ≠ 2x revenue Huang’s comment wasn’t formal revenue guidance. Nvidia had already told investors in August that customer forecasts point to demand doubling next year. Yet management expects roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, explicitly describing that outlook as supply-constrained. In other words: The problem isn’t finding enough demand. It’s producing enough compute. That may actually be the m

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  📈 Beginner Guide to QQQ ETFs: QQQ, QQQM and QYLD If you are new to investing, you may have come across ETFs such as QQQ, QQQM and QYLD. They can look confusing at first because all three are connected to the Nasdaq-100, but they have very different purposes. The easiest way to understand them is this: QQQ = growth and popularity QQQM = similar Nasdaq-100 exposure, designed more for long-term investors QYLD = Nasdaq-100 exposure combined with an income strategy The screenshot shows three ETFs: Invesco QQQ, Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM), and Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD). The prices shown in the screenshot are simply the prices at that particular point in time, so investors should not treat them as permanent pri

Something changed in the AI trade. And I don’t think the most interesting part is the selloff. It’s what the market assumed the selloff meant. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has called for slowing the pace of frontiear AI capability development as safety concerns intensify. Sam Altman agreed that the frontier needs to be paced. Elon Musk backed the warning. Wall Street heard one thing: SLOWER AI = LESS AI INFRASTRUCTURE. And investors hit the hardware stack. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell roughly 6%. $NVDA fell about 3.5%. $AMD fell about 5.6%. $MU fell about 6.7%. Semiconductor equipment names were smashed too, with Lam Research and Applied Materials falling roughly 8% and 7% respectively. AI infrastructure names weren’t spared either. But here’s the question I can’t get past: WHAT

As hyperscale technology conglomerates — such as Microsoft, $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Alphabet, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon, and Meta—signal potential moderation or pacing adjustments in their capital expenditure (capex) growth rates, public markets have begun pricing in an inevitable AI infrastructure "reality check." In this article, we will be looking at how to navigate the AI Capex deceleration, as deceleration in hyperscale AI capex does not mark the end of the semiconductor super-cycle; 1. The Capex Reality Check: Why Hyperscalers Are Recalibrating AI Infrastructure Spend The primary catalyst behind market anxiety regarding semiconductor stocks is the widening gap between hyperscaler infrastructure capex and

U.S. markets showed a striking divergence overnight. As investors worried that calls to slow frontier AI development could eventually cool spending on GPUs, HBM and data centers, semiconductor names came under pressure. At the same time, cybersecurity stocks surged. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler and Fortinet all moved sharply higher. The same “AI risk” narrative was hitting chips while pushing security software into the spotlight. The more important takeaway is not simply that money rotated from hardware into software. The bigger question is whether cybersecurity is becoming a mandatory layer of AI CapEx. Once AI agents start connecting to email, code repositories, databases, CRM systems and payment tools, AI is no longer just reading information. It can call tools, modify files

The indices barely moved on Monday. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.48 per cent lower, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.29 per cent lower and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite 0.56 per cent lower. A layer below, the difference was large: $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ closed 5.53 per cent lower, its biggest one-day fall since 1 July, while CrowdStrike closed 13.85 per cent higher at a record. Two sectors were priced in opposite directions on the same day. On Saturday 12 September, Dario Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic, published "We Must Pace the Frontier", arguin

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ crossed a $1 trillion market value for the first time on September 21, but the milestone is less important than the expectations embedded within it. AMD rose almost 10% to a record after investors returned to AI hardware and rewarded its shift from selling individual processors toward complete computing systems. Reuters' September 21 report records the milestone and notes that the shares had risen 185% in 2026, far ahead of the Nasdaq. The bullish thesis rests on operating evidence, not only enthusiasm. AMD's second-quarter revenue increased 50% year over year to $11.5 billion, while Data Center revenue more than doubled to $6.7 billion as EPYC CPUs and Instinct accelerators gained adoption. AMD's official second-quart

AI-linked stocks across Asia sold off sharply today. SoftBank, Kioxia, SK hynix, Samsung and TSMC all came under pressure as investors reacted to a growing debate around whether the industry should slow the pace of frontier AI development. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has called for more time to evaluate safety risks before pushing model capabilities much further, while other major AI leaders have also shown support for stronger safeguards. The market’s first reaction is understandable: if even the AI labs themselves are saying “slow down,” does that mean the massive spending on GPUs, HBM, networking and data centers is also about to cool? Tiger thinks the answer may be more complicated. What may slow is the pace of frontier model training, not necessarily the overall demand for AI compute.

On Friday the August CPI report landed, traders took the odds of a 25 basis point hike this week from 75 per cent to close to nine in ten, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.86 per cent higher all the same, ending a four-session slide; $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.98 per cent higher, a gain of more than 500 points. The bet on higher rates got bigger. The buyers came back. August CPI rose 3.4 per cent year on year, level with July and in line with expectations; month on month it rose 0.4 per cent against 0.1 per cent in July. The gasoline index rose 3.9 per cent on the month and accounted for a third of the entire rise in goods prices. Core CPI eased to 2.4 per cent year on year

The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are