To The Moon

Thursday looked like a relief rally. The Fed hiked rates. Oil cooled. Treasury yields fell. Nasdaq jumped 1.69%. S&P 500 gained 1.14%.  Then Friday brought a reality check. The 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 5%, while oil remained above $100 a barrel. Stocks still finished higher, but gains were much more muted: S&P 500 +0.17% and Nasdaq +0.40%.  That creates an interesting battle: 📈 Stocks want lower yields Lower borrowing costs can support growth-stock valuations. 🛢️ Inflation keeps pushing the other way Oil above $100 keeps price pressures in focus. 🏦 And the Fed isn’t done being hawkish Markets were pricing roughly a 58% probability of another October hike by Friday.  So Thursday’s rally may not have answered the biggest question. It may have simply moved it forwa

One of the biggest stories in sportswear this week isn’t an earnings report. It’s a brand power shift. Kylian Mbappé has ended his roughly 20-year relationship with Nike and signed with Swiss challenger $ONON, as On prepares to enter football for the first time. On plans to launch its first football boots in 2027, with Thierry Henry joining as its Director of Football.  At first glance, this looks like a celebrity endorsement story. I think the more interesting question is: Can a challenger brand turn athlete credibility into market share? Nike has spent decades building one of the world’s strongest sports marketing machines. But On is taking a different route. Instead of trying to compete everywhere immediately, it has built its reputation around premium running, product innovation and a

🔥 STOCK OF THE DAY: $SNDK — IS THE MEMORY SUPER-CYCLE JUST GETTING STARTED? Memory stocks are suddenly back at the centre of the AI trade. $SNDK jumped ~11% Friday, following another strong move across the memory sector. Micron gained ~4%, while Seagate rose nearly 7%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also climbed about 2.8%.  The bigger story is supply vs demand. AI data centres are consuming huge amounts of high-performance memory, while industry leaders are warning that tight supply and rising memory prices could persist. That creates a very different AI trade: 🤖 Nvidia = compute 🔌 Broadcom = networking 💾 SanDisk = memory/storage But there’s a catch. Memory is notoriously cyclical. Higher prices are great for suppliers until customers start cutting demand or new capacity catches up

Apple is back in the spotlight — and this time it’s not just about another iPhone launch. The iPhone 18 lineup, Apple’s first foldable iPhone and its push into AI are giving investors several potential catalysts to watch.  What caught my attention is the combination of: 📱 Premium iPhone demand 🤖 Apple Intelligence + AI upgrades 📐 New foldable iPhone category 💰 Services helping diversify revenue Apple’s June-quarter iPhone revenue was already up 21.7% YoY, showing the upgrade cycle had momentum before the iPhone 18 launch.  But at nearly $5T market cap, expectations are enormous. The question isn’t whether Apple can sell more iPhones. It’s whether the iPhone 18 + AI + foldable strategy can create another meaningful growth leg without valuation becoming the bigger risk. 👀 $AAPL: new iPhone

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling. For me, the bond market is the key signal. If yields continue to ease, that could support valuations and give growth stocks more room to run—even with the Fed still sounding relatively hawkish.

Interesting disconnect: Arc gets major institutional names involved, yet the stock still sells off. That suggests the market may be demanding more than partnerships — actual adoption, transaction growth and earnings diversification could be the next proof points.

I’m watching C — higher for longer. Even if we don’t see another hike soon, rates staying elevated can still put pressure on valuations and keep volatility high. For me, the key is whether inflation cools enough to give the Fed room to ease without reigniting price pressures.

The number that caught my attention today: Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said memory prices have surged 5–7×. That sounds incredibly bullish for memory makers like $MU, $SNDK and $SK Hynix — and the market reacted accordingly: 📈 MU +5.50% 📈 SNDK +6.21% 📈 SK Hynix +4.64% 📈 INTC +7.67% But there’s another side to this story. Higher memory prices mean pricing power and potentially stronger margins for suppliers. But for PC, smartphone and other device makers, memory is becoming a much bigger input cost. Reuters reports smaller manufacturers are already struggling to secure supply, with the shortage expected to persist into 2027.  So I’m looking at the 500% figure two ways: 🟢 Bull case: supply is tight enough to give memory manufacturers exceptional pricing power. 🔴 Warning: if memory becomes too expe

The AI slowdown debate just got a little harder to ignore. Jensen Huang says Nvidia expects to sell 2× as many chips next year as this year. That’s a huge statement — but it’s still a forecast, not a book of signed orders.  And the market clearly noticed: 🚀 AMD +6.36% 🔥 Marvell +4.81% 🟢 Nvidia +2.54% ⚡ Broadcom +2.29% The bigger signal for me is what happens beyond Nvidia. More AI compute means more demand for networking, custom silicon, memory and data-centre infrastructure. Thursday’s semiconductor rally also coincided with expanded Marvell–GlobalFoundries capacity for AI data-centre connectivity.  But there’s still one giant question: Does 2× chip demand eventually translate into 2× the economic returns for the AI ecosystem?

🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS DIDN’T CARE. That’s what caught my attention Thursday. The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, with policymakers still signalling another hike could come this year. Yet stocks ripped higher: 🚀 Nasdaq +1.69% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📉 10Y Treasury yield back to ~4.93% 🛢️ Brent crude ~1% lower And jobless claims came in at just 196K, pointing to continued labour-market resilience.  So what is the market actually saying? Maybe the trade isn’t “Fed is dovish.” Maybe it’s: “As long as oil and long-term yields keep coming down, investors can look through the hike.” But here’s the catch 👀 Markets were still pricing about a 53% chance of another October hike on Thursday.  Is this the start of a bigger risk-on move, or are investors getting too comfortable with the Fed’s ha