To The Moon

I’m most interested in B. NBIS. The $355 target definitely gets attention, but I’d be more focused on whether the underlying AI infrastructure demand can actually support that kind of valuation. Price targets are interesting — the assumptions behind them are even more important. 👀

Yesterday, memory stocks moved almost like one trade. Today? Not even close. 🟢 $MU +0.39% 🔴 $Hynix -0.46% 🔴 $SNDK -1.36% 🔴 Western Digital ~-4% 🔴 Seagate ~-5% That divergence is more interesting to me than the individual moves. The bull case has been relatively simple: AI demand → tight supply → higher memory prices → stronger earnings → higher valuations. But if that’s the whole story, why are memory names suddenly behaving so differently? One possibility: the market is starting to separate actual demand from expectations about pricing. And Micron could become the key test. 📅 Sept. 30 earnings 📊 New pricing commentary 📦 Orders and demand signals 💰 Margin expectations SanDisk refinancing also adds another wrinkle: when valuations depend heavily on memory prices continuing higher, financing

The 25bp Fed hike was expected. The market knew it was coming. Yet the reaction was surprisingly muted: 📉 $SPY -0.44% 📉 S&P 500 -0.45% ➡️ $QQQ +0.03% 🟢 Gold +1.10% So maybe the headline rate decision wasn’t the real story. The market is looking past today and toward what comes next. If inflation remains persistent and policymakers still see another hike ahead, the question becomes whether today’s prices already reflect that tighter path. At the same time, there’s another side to the equation: 💰 Earnings remain solid 📈 Growth expectations haven’t collapsed 🏦 Major banks remain constructive on the economic outlook That creates a tug-of-war: Higher-for-longer rates vs. resilient corporate earnings. For me, the key signal isn’t today’s 25bp move. It’s whether the market can keep absorbing

OpenAI is reportedly pausing some projects and shifting roughly 25% of production engineering toward safety audits, while Anthropic and Meta are also pushing for slower frontier-model iteration. Yet chip stocks moved higher: 🟢 $AMD +1.65% 🟢 $NVDA +0.82% 🟢 $AVGO +0.07% That creates an interesting disconnect. Maybe the market isn’t betting on how fast AI models improve. It’s betting on how much infrastructure has already been committed. Even if model development slows, data centers still need: ⚡ Computing power 🔌 Networking 💾 Memory 🌐 High-speed optical connectivity And once billions are committed to infrastructure, companies don’t necessarily stop spending simply because engineers are moving more slowly. But there is a risk the market may be overlooking: If AI progress slows for long enough

$CRCL dropped 6.78% to $80.45 even as BlackRock, Mastercard and Visa all disclosed partnerships with Circle. At first glance, that reaction looks strange. But maybe the market is asking a different question: Can Circle turn institutional validation into actual transaction volume? The pieces are starting to line up: 🏦 Big financial names → credibility 🌎 Tazapay acquisition → cross-border payment infrastructure 💵 $25B+ annualized volume → an existing payments network 📜 Regulatory clarity → potentially the missing piece The important distinction is that a partnership isn’t the same as revenue. Markets can acknowledge that Circle has built a credible platform while still questioning how much economic value ultimately flows through it — and how much of that value is already reflected in the sto

Lumentum jumped 9.59%, while AXT gained 11.44%, Semtech 11.03%, Coherent ~6% and Marvell 3.61%. But here’s the interesting part: there wasn’t a major new catalyst. No fresh guidance. No big order announcement. No earnings surprise. No major rating change. So why the sudden reversal? 🔹 AI infrastructure demand hasn’t disappeared. Data still has to move between GPUs, servers and data centers — and optical networking sits right in that path. 🔹 The sector had been heavily sold. That creates room for short covering and dip buyers, especially when the long-term AI infrastructure story remains intact. 🔹 But demand vs. positioning matters. If the same fundamentals existed while these stocks were falling last week, today’s rally may tell us more about positioning than a sudden improvement in busine

The interesting part of this story isn’t just SK Hynix potentially using Intel’s U.S. manufacturing capacity. It’s what it says about the semiconductor industry. Memory demand is exploding with AI, but adding new fabs takes years and billions of dollars. So if leading memory companies need additional capacity, existing manufacturing infrastructure suddenly becomes extremely valuable. That puts Intel in an interesting position. The question isn’t whether Intel can suddenly become a memory powerhouse. It’s whether its fabs can become a strategic piece of someone else’s supply chain. And there’s an important caveat: Nothing is signed yet. A reported discussion is not the same as a production agreement, and even a deal wouldn’t translate into meaningful capacity overnight. Still, I’m watching

Tech Dip: Buy the Fear or Get Out?  I think the biggest mistake right now is treating every red day in tech the same. Some stocks are falling because expectations got too high. Others are pulling back even though the underlying business hasn’t materially changed. That’s the distinction I’m watching. 📉 Price down + estimates falling = different story 📉 Price down + fundamentals intact = worth investigating 📈 Price up + expectations exploding = risk can build quickly With rates still influencing valuations and investors questioning how much AI spending can continue, I don’t think the answer is simply “buy everything on weakness.” I’m looking for companies where earnings growth can catch up with the valuation. The dip itself isn’t the signal. What happens to the fundamentals while the st

Something doesn’t add up at first glance. AI companies are talking about slowing parts of frontier development and shifting resources toward safety and efficiency. Yet semiconductor stocks are moving higher. That tells me investors may be separating AI experimentation from AI infrastructure. You can pause a model project. You can delay a product. But the GPUs, networking equipment and data-center capacity already being deployed don’t suddenly disappear. That creates two very different AI stories: 🧠 Model race: potentially becoming slower and more selective 🏗️ Infrastructure race: still requiring enormous amounts of compute The real test comes next. If chip demand stays strong while AI companies become more disciplined with spending, that could signal the industry is moving from “spend at a

The Fed delivered the expected 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%. But stocks didn’t celebrate. QQQ barely moved, while SPY and the S&P 500 finished lower. To me, the bigger story isn’t the hike we got — it’s the hike the market is now thinking about. The market had largely priced in one move. The Fed’s projections keep another hike firmly in the conversation, while inflation is still being described as too persistent. That creates an interesting battle: 🟢 Strong earnings + economic growth 🔴 Higher-for-longer rates 🟢 AI/tech investment remains strong 🔴 Valuations face pressure from yields So the question is: Did the market already absorb the second hike, or is another repricing coming? I’m watching Treasury yields + QQQ more closely than the Fed headline from here. If yields stabilize, tech coul