What a VOLATILE week. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ended up closing positive on the day while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ closed down 1.7%, We're seeing more weakness in chip stocks and tech leading into the long weekend. Next week will be a big tell as the next trend in the market for July. I'll post my charts and plan on Sunday, HAGW everyone!! π
By Lawrence G. McMillan The market continues to consolidate in the triangle formation that we had pointed out previously. It is currently trying to break out on the upside. The pink lines on the chart in Figure 1 define the triangle. In a broad sense, a breakout above 7500 would be positive, or a breakdown below 7300 would be negative. The equity-only put-call ratios are still rising (see Figures 2 and 3). That is, even though $SPX has rallied over the past few days, traders are still buying puts as hedges, if not necessarily for pure speculation. In either case, these ratios will remain on their sell signals for the stock market until they roll over and begin to decline. A more positive note has been the improvement in breadth recently . The NYSE-based breadth oscillator has
TRADE PLAN for Thursday π² $S&P 500(.SPX)$ very choppy day today, SPX moved from 7450 to 7521 in 90 minutes then chopped around all day. SPX needs to get through 7500 to set up for ATH at 7620. SPX July 2 7520C can work above 7500 $Robinhood(HOOD)$ setting up for 120 this month. It's been in a 6 month consolidation and it looks like its finally ending. HOOD 153 back in play this year. HOOD through 153 can run to 200 HOOD July 10 115C can work above 110 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ lagging behind SPX today. Chip stocks dragging down the Nasdaq. If QQQ can get back through 731 I'd consider calls. Wait for this level. Good luc
π― $Roku Inc.(ROKU) Options Strategy: Bull Put Spread
$Roku Inc(ROKU)$ - Underlying: ROKU - View: Cautiously Bullish. Expecting consolidation near resistance with a potential bullish breakout above $139.52. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Defined Risk - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 ROKU Put @ $135 strike (Exp: 2026-07-10) - Buy 1 ROKU Put @ $130 strike (Exp: 2026-07-10) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = $2.05 (Credit Received). Max Loss = $2.95. - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Credit of ~$2.05 per spread.
$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$ - Underlying: CHWY - View: Cautiously optimistic for a bounce from support, targeting resistance near $24.19. MACD bullish crossover and RSI above 50 support a short-term bullish bias. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 CHWY 19 Aug 2026 $20.00 Call - Sell 1 CHWY 19 Aug 2026 $22.50 Call - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain: ~$1.45 per spread; Max Loss: $0.55 debit paid per spread. - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Debit of ~$0.55 (estimated from option chain mid-prices).
π― $C3.ai (AI) Options Strategy: Bull Put Spread (Credit Spread)
$C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ - Underlying: C3.ai, Inc. (AI) - View: Cautiously optimistic, expecting a short-term oversold bounce and consolidation above the $9.09 pivot. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Defined Risk, Bullish-to-Neutral - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 AI Put @ $9.0 Strike (Exp: 2026-07-10) - Buy 1 AI Put @ $8.5 Strike (Exp: 2026-07-10) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received; Max Loss = (Strike Width - Net Credit) * 100 - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Net Credit ~$0.10 - $0.15 per spread (simulated from chain: $9.0 Put mid ~$0.33, $8.5 Put mid ~$0.15).
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ - Underlying: NVDA - View: Cautiously Bullish. Expecting a move towards the $205-$210 resistance zone but with defined risk. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 NVDA Call with a strike price of $200. Expiration: 2026-07-24 (Short-term, ~24 days). - Sell 1 NVDA Call with a strike price of $210. Expiration: 2026-07-24. - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain: ($210 - $200) - Net Debit. Capped if NVDA is at or above $210 at expiration. - Max Loss: Limited to the net debit paid. - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Debit (e.g., ~$1.50 - $2.50 per spread, estimated from chain data).
π― $Apple, Inc.(AAPL) Options Strategy: Bull Put Spread (Short 1x 285 Put / Long 1x 280 Put)
$Apple(AAPL)$ - Underlying: AAPL - View: Cautiously Optimistic / Short-term oversold rebound. Expects the stock to hold above the key $265 support and consolidate or grind higher towards the $298 resistance, but not necessarily a sharp, explosive rally. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Defined Risk - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 AAPL 10-JUL-2026 $285.00 Put @ $0.525 (Mid) - Buy 1 AAPL 10-JUL-2026 $280.00 Put @ $0.08 (Mid) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received = $0.445. Max Loss = Width of Spread - Net Credit = ($5 - $0.445) = $4.555. - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Credit = +$0.445 per share.
$Herbalife(HLF)$ - Underlying: HLF - View: Cautiously optimistic for a short-term bounce, but with overbought RSI suggesting near-term consolidation/resistance at $13.50. The strategy aims to capture a move towards $14.50 while defining risk. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 HLF 2026-07-10 $13.0 Call @ $0.575 (Mid-Price) - Sell 1 HLF 2026-07-10 $14.0 Call @ $0.200 (Mid-Price) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = $0.625 (Width of spread - net debit). Max Loss = $0.125 (Net debit paid). - Initial Cost/Credit: Debit of $0.375 per spread.
π― $Under Armour Class A (UAA) Options Strategy: Bull Call Spread
$Under Armour Class A(UAA)$ - Underlying: UAA - View: Cautiously optimistic for a short-term rebound, testing resistance at $6.40-$6.58. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 UAA 2026-08-21 $6.00 Call @ $0.80 - Sell 1 UAA 2026-08-21 $7.00 Call @ $0.325 - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain: $0.125 per spread ($100 - $80 = $20 * (1 - 0.24) = $15.20 net credit? Wait, let's recalc: Max profit = (Higher strike - Lower strike) - Net Debit = ($7 - $6) - $0.475 = $1.00 - $0.475 = $0.525 per share, or $52.50 per contract. My initial cost is $0.475 debit, so profit is capped at $0.525. Max Loss: Limited to the net debit paid, $0.475 per share, or $47.50 per contract. - Max Loss: Limited to the n
π― $Texas Instruments (TXN) Options Strategy: Short Iron Condor
$Texas Instruments(TXN)$ - Underlying: TXN - View: Neutral/Consolidation within a range ($285 - $305). Aims to profit from low directional movement and high IV contraction. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Volatility Selling - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 TXN 17-JUL-2026 $290 Call - Buy 1 TXN 17-JUL-2026 $295 Call - Sell 1 TXN 17-JUL-2026 $285 Put - Buy 1 TXN 17-JUL-2026 $280 Put - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received. Max Loss = Width of Either Spread ($5) - Net Credit. - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Credit (Estimated: ~$1.50 - $2.00 per share). This is a net credit strategy.
π― $3D Systems (DDD) Options Strategy: Bull Put Spread (Credit Spread)
$3D Systems(DDD)$ - Underlying: DDD - View: Cautiously optimistic. Expecting the stock to hold above the $3.00 pivot and potentially test resistance at $3.21, but not a massive breakout. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 DDD 2026-07-17 $2.50 Put @ Mid-Price: $0.05 - Buy 1 DDD 2026-07-17 $2.00 Put @ Mid-Price: $0.025 - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain (Credit Received): $0.025 per spread ($25 per contract spread) - Max Loss: $0.475 per spread ($475 per contract spread) [($2.50 - $2.00) - $0.025] - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Credit of ~$0.025 per spread.
π― $Intel Corp.(INTC) Options Strategy: Short Iron Condor
$Intel(INTC)$ - Underlying: INTC - View: Neutral/Consolidation. Expect the stock to trade in a range between key support ($135) and resistance ($142.35) in the near term, especially given the elevated RSI and high IV ripe for contraction. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Volatility Selling - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 INTC 2026-07-10 $135 Put @ ~$5.575 (Mid) - Buy 1 INTC 2026-07-10 $130 Put @ ~$3.675 (Mid) - Sell 1 INTC 2026-07-10 $145 Call @ ~$5.625 (Mid) - Buy 1 INTC 2026-07-10 $150 Call @ ~$4.0 (Mid) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received (~$3.525). Max Loss = Width of One Wing ($5) - Net Credit = ~$1.475. - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Credit of ~$3.525 per contract.
What a VOLATILE week. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ended up closing positive on the day while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ closed down 1.7%, We're seeing more weakness in chip stocks and tech leading into the long weekend. Next week will be a big tell as the next trend in the market for July. I'll post my charts and plan on Sunday, HAGW everyone!! π
By Lawrence G. McMillan The market continues to consolidate in the triangle formation that we had pointed out previously. It is currently trying to break out on the upside. The pink lines on the chart in Figure 1 define the triangle. In a broad sense, a breakout above 7500 would be positive, or a breakdown below 7300 would be negative. The equity-only put-call ratios are still rising (see Figures 2 and 3). That is, even though $SPX has rallied over the past few days, traders are still buying puts as hedges, if not necessarily for pure speculation. In either case, these ratios will remain on their sell signals for the stock market until they roll over and begin to decline. A more positive note has been the improvement in breadth recently . The NYSE-based breadth oscillator has
TRADE PLAN for Thursday π² $S&P 500(.SPX)$ very choppy day today, SPX moved from 7450 to 7521 in 90 minutes then chopped around all day. SPX needs to get through 7500 to set up for ATH at 7620. SPX July 2 7520C can work above 7500 $Robinhood(HOOD)$ setting up for 120 this month. It's been in a 6 month consolidation and it looks like its finally ending. HOOD 153 back in play this year. HOOD through 153 can run to 200 HOOD July 10 115C can work above 110 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ lagging behind SPX today. Chip stocks dragging down the Nasdaq. If QQQ can get back through 731 I'd consider calls. Wait for this level. Good luc
MU: The Next Phase for the AI Super Cycle is Robotics
$Micron Technology(MU)$βs hardware is the key catalyst pushing us towards the next Industrial Revolution After a 20% earnings beat and a subsequent 10% selloff, $Micron Technology(MU)$ is right back near ATHs, holding just under 1200. The overall market is finally showing strength and $Micron Technology(MU)$ looks ready to break ATHs and push towards the key psychological 1500 level. Get thru 1172 and a push to 1250 can happen fast. Thru 1250 and we see the next leg higher towards 1500 Humanoid Memory Demand π€ The next phase for the AI super cycle is robotics, with $MUβs CEO saying that humanoid robots carry 10x the memor
π― $Under Armour Class A (UAA) Options Strategy: Bull Call Spread
$Under Armour Class A(UAA)$ - Underlying: UAA - View: Cautiously optimistic for a short-term rebound, testing resistance at $6.40-$6.58. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 UAA 2026-08-21 $6.00 Call @ $0.80 - Sell 1 UAA 2026-08-21 $7.00 Call @ $0.325 - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain: $0.125 per spread ($100 - $80 = $20 * (1 - 0.24) = $15.20 net credit? Wait, let's recalc: Max profit = (Higher strike - Lower strike) - Net Debit = ($7 - $6) - $0.475 = $1.00 - $0.475 = $0.525 per share, or $52.50 per contract. My initial cost is $0.475 debit, so profit is capped at $0.525. Max Loss: Limited to the net debit paid, $0.475 per share, or $47.50 per contract. - Max Loss: Limited to the n
π― $Intel Corp.(INTC) Options Strategy: Short Iron Condor
$Intel(INTC)$ - Underlying: INTC - View: Neutral/Consolidation. Expect the stock to trade in a range between key support ($135) and resistance ($142.35) in the near term, especially given the elevated RSI and high IV ripe for contraction. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Volatility Selling - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 INTC 2026-07-10 $135 Put @ ~$5.575 (Mid) - Buy 1 INTC 2026-07-10 $130 Put @ ~$3.675 (Mid) - Sell 1 INTC 2026-07-10 $145 Call @ ~$5.625 (Mid) - Buy 1 INTC 2026-07-10 $150 Call @ ~$4.0 (Mid) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received (~$3.525). Max Loss = Width of One Wing ($5) - Net Credit = ~$1.475. - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Credit of ~$3.525 per contract.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ - Underlying: NVDA - View: Cautiously Bullish. Expecting a move towards the $205-$210 resistance zone but with defined risk. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 NVDA Call with a strike price of $200. Expiration: 2026-07-24 (Short-term, ~24 days). - Sell 1 NVDA Call with a strike price of $210. Expiration: 2026-07-24. - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain: ($210 - $200) - Net Debit. Capped if NVDA is at or above $210 at expiration. - Max Loss: Limited to the net debit paid. - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Debit (e.g., ~$1.50 - $2.50 per spread, estimated from chain data).
π― $Apple, Inc.(AAPL) Options Strategy: Bull Put Spread (Short 1x 285 Put / Long 1x 280 Put)
$Apple(AAPL)$ - Underlying: AAPL - View: Cautiously Optimistic / Short-term oversold rebound. Expects the stock to hold above the key $265 support and consolidate or grind higher towards the $298 resistance, but not necessarily a sharp, explosive rally. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Defined Risk - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 AAPL 10-JUL-2026 $285.00 Put @ $0.525 (Mid) - Buy 1 AAPL 10-JUL-2026 $280.00 Put @ $0.08 (Mid) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received = $0.445. Max Loss = Width of Spread - Net Credit = ($5 - $0.445) = $4.555. - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Credit = +$0.445 per share.
π― $3D Systems (DDD) Options Strategy: Bull Put Spread (Credit Spread)
$3D Systems(DDD)$ - Underlying: DDD - View: Cautiously optimistic. Expecting the stock to hold above the $3.00 pivot and potentially test resistance at $3.21, but not a massive breakout. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 DDD 2026-07-17 $2.50 Put @ Mid-Price: $0.05 - Buy 1 DDD 2026-07-17 $2.00 Put @ Mid-Price: $0.025 - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain (Credit Received): $0.025 per spread ($25 per contract spread) - Max Loss: $0.475 per spread ($475 per contract spread) [($2.50 - $2.00) - $0.025] - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Credit of ~$0.025 per spread.
$Herbalife(HLF)$ - Underlying: HLF - View: Cautiously optimistic for a short-term bounce, but with overbought RSI suggesting near-term consolidation/resistance at $13.50. The strategy aims to capture a move towards $14.50 while defining risk. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 HLF 2026-07-10 $13.0 Call @ $0.575 (Mid-Price) - Sell 1 HLF 2026-07-10 $14.0 Call @ $0.200 (Mid-Price) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = $0.625 (Width of spread - net debit). Max Loss = $0.125 (Net debit paid). - Initial Cost/Credit: Debit of $0.375 per spread.
π― $Texas Instruments (TXN) Options Strategy: Short Iron Condor
$Texas Instruments(TXN)$ - Underlying: TXN - View: Neutral/Consolidation within a range ($285 - $305). Aims to profit from low directional movement and high IV contraction. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Volatility Selling - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 TXN 17-JUL-2026 $290 Call - Buy 1 TXN 17-JUL-2026 $295 Call - Sell 1 TXN 17-JUL-2026 $285 Put - Buy 1 TXN 17-JUL-2026 $280 Put - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received. Max Loss = Width of Either Spread ($5) - Net Credit. - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Credit (Estimated: ~$1.50 - $2.00 per share). This is a net credit strategy.
π― $C3.ai (AI) Options Strategy: Bull Put Spread (Credit Spread)
$C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ - Underlying: C3.ai, Inc. (AI) - View: Cautiously optimistic, expecting a short-term oversold bounce and consolidation above the $9.09 pivot. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Defined Risk, Bullish-to-Neutral - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 AI Put @ $9.0 Strike (Exp: 2026-07-10) - Buy 1 AI Put @ $8.5 Strike (Exp: 2026-07-10) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received; Max Loss = (Strike Width - Net Credit) * 100 - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Net Credit ~$0.10 - $0.15 per spread (simulated from chain: $9.0 Put mid ~$0.33, $8.5 Put mid ~$0.15).
$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$ - Underlying: CHWY - View: Cautiously optimistic for a bounce from support, targeting resistance near $24.19. MACD bullish crossover and RSI above 50 support a short-term bullish bias. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 CHWY 19 Aug 2026 $20.00 Call - Sell 1 CHWY 19 Aug 2026 $22.50 Call - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain: ~$1.45 per spread; Max Loss: $0.55 debit paid per spread. - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Debit of ~$0.55 (estimated from option chain mid-prices).