By Lawrence G. McMillan A little more than a week ago, the FOMC meeting concluded (on July 29th), and traders were not happy. They sold the market before and after the meeting, closing $SPX that day at 7316. But then a series of events both real and psychological took place that released a buying panic. The net effect of this was that $SPX has broken out to new all- time highs, and has not fallen back below the old highs at 7620. That makes the $SPX chart bullish again, for the first time in a while. Targets are always nebulous things, but this could take $SPX to 8,000 or so. Equity-only put-call ratios have not rolled over to buy signals. As much as $SPX has risen, it has been accompanied by continued buying of puts on stocks. That is for protection most likely. So, even though these put-
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Despite one downward probe on July 29th, $SPX has managed to trade in a range and close at almost the same price every day. Near- term resistance is at 7430. After that failure on the 29th, the market bounced off the 7300 level with a vengeance the next day, so that is support. Even so, if one looks at the chart of $SPX in Figure 1, it is obvious that there is a new downtrend line that can be drawn, connecting the failed rally attempts that took place during July. There is support at 7300 and then 7240, with potential further support near the rising 200-day moving average in the 7100 area (that a
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Despite one downward probe on July 29th, $SPX has managed to trade in a range and close at almost the same price every day. Near- term resistance is at 7430. After that failure on the 29th, the market bounced off the 7300 level with a vengeance the next day, so that is support. Even so, if one looks at the chart of $SPX in Figure 1, it is obvious that there is a new downtrend line that can be drawn, connecting the failed rally attempts that took place during July. There is support at 7300 and then 7240, with potential further support near the rising 200-day moving average in the 7100 area (that a
$DECU$ $QQQY$ $XDTE$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The market has been frustrating to many over the past two months since new all-time highs were made in early June. Bulls expected another attempt at new highs by now, while bears expected a larger correction (given the uncertainties of Iran, interest rates, etc.). But the fact is, $SPX has remained in a trading range over that time. There is currently resistance at 7580 (July's highs) and then at the all-time highs in the 7600-7620 area. Support was broken slightly yesterday, as $SPX probed downward, but there is support at 7300 or slightly above that level, with further support at the July lows near 72
That Old Familiar Song: Volatility Rises in August (Preview)
$RSEE$ $QQQP$ $JULD$ By Lawrence G. McMillan It is once again time to consider that $VIX may have bottomed for the year. It is a common occurrence for $VIX to make its annual lows in July and then begin to rise in August. Sometimes that rise is stupendous, as it was two years ago. Most of the time the annual peak for $VIX is reached in October, which is when the market often sells into a strong bottom. We can compose a seasonal chart of $VIX. Chart 1 encompasses the years 1989 through 2025 (the most recent full year of trading). While there is $VIX data for earlier years, including 1987 and even 1988 distorts things too much. The data in Chart 1 u
$DECU$ $QQQY$ $XDTE$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Buying the dip has been working on an intraday basis recently, but the larger picture is that there are dips to buy almost every day. That means that $SPX is not making much progress. Despite breaking out on the upside from the triangle formation that had existed, it has run into resistance at 7580 and has failed to challenge the all-time highs at 7600-7620. This keeps the $SPX chart from being upgraded to "bullish." Rather, it is range-bound at best. There is support at 7420 the lows of early July. Then below that the lower side of the triangle is still in place, and a breakdown below 7300 would be neg