To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the past week (03Aug2026) To prevent Japan from selling even more US assets, he joined Japan in a massive coordinated intervention. But instead of selling USD, the US sold EUR. To keep this war going, the US has to bail out major holders of US assets to prevent them from selling... especially Treasuries. - X user Lukas Ekwueme More than 1.2 million leveraged retail trading accounts in South Korea triggered margin calls as ​of July 13th, with an estimated 320,000–360,000 accounts fully liquidated, per Goldman Sachs. This means around 3.4% of the adult ⁠population in South Korea has received margin calls. The KOSPI is currently down another ~18% since July 13th. We believe that the total number of fully liquidated accounts is now above 500,000. - X user The Kobeissi

Market Outlook of S&P500 (03Aug2026) Technical Analysis Overview Source: Yahoo Finance dated 02Aug2026 MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 200-day (MA200) moving average but cut the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the long term and uncertain in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This is showing a bearish trend. Chaikin Money Flow The CMF index shows a score of 0.09, indicating more buying momentum than sell

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 03Aug2026) Key macroeconomic releases in the coming week will provide important signals on growth, inflation, labour-market conditions, and energy demand. Manufacturing and Inflation Indicators The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July is expected at 53.8, indicating continued expansion in global manufacturing activity. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for July will also be released. The previous ISM Manufacturing Prices reading of 73.0 pointed to inflationary pressure, which could eventually be passed on to consumers. Labour-Market Data Several labour-market indicators will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve ahead of its upcoming interest-rate decision: JOLTS job openings for June will be announced, follow

My Investing Muse (27Jul2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies (by Gemini & Grok) Key corporate and market stress signals (week of ~July 20, 2026): Major Layoffs British American Tobacco: ~9,000 roles (~20% of non-US workforce). Microsoft: ~4,800 global positions. Telefónica Germany: up to 1,100 roles (~16%). Verizon: ~3,000 affected (mostly store transfers + corporate cuts). Samsung: 800+ U.S. roles affected (many relocation offers). Entain: 500 positions. Closures/Restructuring Metro (Singapore): exiting Paragon and Causeway Point stores. Volkswagen: cutting model lines by up to 50% and reviewing European plants. Bankruptcies U.S. larger corporates: S&P reports 372 filings YTD—a 16-year high, led by industrial, consumer, and healthcare. Small businesses: Subchapter V filings u

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Jul2026) META $12 billion bond offer comes in at 7.6% on “weak demand”. So much pain coming to Oracle. On Monday, whose bonds are rapidly selling off at 7.9% to 8.1% while Meta was around 6.7%. - X user Roger Will this save Oracle? Are people leaving a sinking ship in BlackRock? JUST IN: OpenAI caught one of its AI agents leaving instructions for future versions to escape internal controls. - X user Watcher Guru Nike is planning to cut off thousands of online distributors in China beginning in January as the sneaker giant looks to clean up what’s become a messy digital marketplace and get the region back to growth, the company said Tuesday. Starting next year, Nike’s online footprint will shift primarily to the retailer’s official website and app,

Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Jul2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 just completed a crossover and is on a downtrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 200-day (MA200) moving average but below the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the long term and bearish in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. We had some issues with the charts from both Yahoo Finance and Investing. Pardon missing the other indicators like Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and the Exponential

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026) Consumption and Consumer Sentiment June’s Durable Goods orders are forecast to rise by 1.6%, a notable improvement from the previous reading of -4.5%. This rebound is a positive indicator for consumption and suggests stronger demand momentum. The CB Consumer Confidence reading for July is forecast at 92.1. This points to weaker consumer confidence and lower market optimism, which may influence future consumption patterns. Energy Demand Indicator Crude oil inventories remain an important reference point for assessing producer expectations and future consumption. If inventories come in above expectations, it may suggest stronger supply conditions; if they fall below expectations, it could point to firmer demand.

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026) Consumption and Consumer Sentiment June’s Durable Goods orders are forecast to rise by 1.6%, a notable improvement from the previous reading of -4.5%. This rebound is a positive indicator for consumption and suggests stronger demand momentum. The CB Consumer Confidence reading for July is forecast at 92.1. This points to weaker consumer confidence and lower market optimism, which may influence future consumption patterns. Energy Demand Indicator Crude oil inventories remain an important reference point for assessing producer expectations and future consumption. If inventories come in above expectations, it may suggest stronger supply conditions; if they fall below expectations, it could point to firmer demand. Federal Reserve Interest

After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators. Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026) I. U.S. equity indices have flipped shor

【Money Market Fund】 US$ MMF Net 7-day Yield: +3.62%* The recent re-escalation of geopolitical tensions has led to rising yields, predominantly led by the front-end. Looking ahead, investors will focus on upcoming US CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh’s Congress testimony for further clues on the interest rate outlook. While lower oil prices compared with March-May levels is expected to lead to a negative June headline CPI print, HSBC believes front-end rates should remain supported as policymakers continue to focus on inflation risks and avoid providing clear forward guidance, keeping upcoming FOMC meetings "live" for potential policy action. *Bloomberg, as of 2026/07/10. 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal. 【REITs】 S$ SRT YTD total return: ‑2.24% As of 10

will AI AI stocks will crash. ?  It’s just a matter of time, though no one knows exactly when, or how much higher they’ll climb before gravity catches up. That makes them poor long-term holdings Let’s take a break from AI stocks, especially since we’re starting to see a sector rotation underway. We might be better off looking for investment ideas built for the long haul. The difference is that you buy AI stocks because they are moving fast. You buy long-term stocks because they last. Many investors conflate the two and get into trouble.example beats McDonald’s. It’s a place where parents bring their kids, and one day those kids bring their own. It’s intergenerational and never goes out of style. Compare that to a fashion label tagged to an older generation and shunned by the next. Thi

Nvidia, bullish on Nvidia in 2nd half [Call]

$META$ My outlook on Meta remains positive. The company continues to strengthen its core advertising business while investing heavily in AI, improving engagement across its platforms, and building new long-term growth opportunities. With strong cash generation, a massive global user base, and continued innovation across its ecosystem, I believe Meta is well positioned for further growth. Overall, I’m bullish on META and believe the stock has strong long-term upside potential.

Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

【Money Market Fund】 US$ MMF Net 7-day Yield: +3.56%* During the week, softer payroll data reduced expectations of an imminent Fed hike. Looking ahead, markets will focus on the release of the FOMC minutes for further insight into the Fed's assessment of inflation and growth risks. HSBC continues to see a hawkish bias at the front end as policymakers remain focused on inflation risks and keep all upcoming meetings "live" for potential policy action. *Bloomberg, as of 2026/07/02. 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal. 【REITs】 S$ SRT YTD total return: ‑3.02% As of 03 Jul 2026 (Fri), $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)$ declined 0.27% WTD in SGD, bringing YTD return to ‑3.02%. WTD losses were led by industrial, reta

I got $Alphabet(GOOG)$. I think the AI trend will continue to be bullish for the foreseeable future

🚀 FTSE China A50 Futures – My 16-Point Morning Trade! 📈💰 $FTSE China A50 Index - Sep 2026(CN2609)$   Sometimes the best trades are not the biggest trades—they are the ones where I simply follow my trading plan. On 7 July 2026, I spotted a high-probability setup on the FTSE China A50 September 2026 Futures (CN2609). Instead of chasing the market or hoping for a miracle rally,I patiently waited for technical confirmation before entering my position. I went long at 14,808 and, just a few minutes later, I closed my position at 14,824, locking in a 16-point profit. Since every index point is worth US$1 per contract, this trade earned US$16 before commissions and fees. Some people may laugh and say, “Only US$16?”

I got INTC for my draw. It is a comeback story for Intel as AI narrative caused its RAM speciality to become lucrative again. However does it really warrant its current and future evaluation? I will sit and watch for now.

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

Nvidia. One of my current stocks holding in my portfolio for the long-term. [Cool]

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026) Consumption and Consumer Sentiment June’s Durable Goods orders are forecast to rise by 1.6%, a notable improvement from the previous reading of -4.5%. This rebound is a positive indicator for consumption and suggests stronger demand momentum. The CB Consumer Confidence reading for July is forecast at 92.1. This points to weaker consumer confidence and lower market optimism, which may influence future consumption patterns. Energy Demand Indicator Crude oil inventories remain an important reference point for assessing producer expectations and future consumption. If inventories come in above expectations, it may suggest stronger supply conditions; if they fall below expectations, it could point to firmer demand. Federal Reserve Interest

News and my thoughts from the past week (03Aug2026) To prevent Japan from selling even more US assets, he joined Japan in a massive coordinated intervention. But instead of selling USD, the US sold EUR. To keep this war going, the US has to bail out major holders of US assets to prevent them from selling... especially Treasuries. - X user Lukas Ekwueme More than 1.2 million leveraged retail trading accounts in South Korea triggered margin calls as ​of July 13th, with an estimated 320,000–360,000 accounts fully liquidated, per Goldman Sachs. This means around 3.4% of the adult ⁠population in South Korea has received margin calls. The KOSPI is currently down another ~18% since July 13th. We believe that the total number of fully liquidated accounts is now above 500,000. - X user The Kobeissi

My Investing Muse (27Jul2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies (by Gemini & Grok) Key corporate and market stress signals (week of ~July 20, 2026): Major Layoffs British American Tobacco: ~9,000 roles (~20% of non-US workforce). Microsoft: ~4,800 global positions. Telefónica Germany: up to 1,100 roles (~16%). Verizon: ~3,000 affected (mostly store transfers + corporate cuts). Samsung: 800+ U.S. roles affected (many relocation offers). Entain: 500 positions. Closures/Restructuring Metro (Singapore): exiting Paragon and Causeway Point stores. Volkswagen: cutting model lines by up to 50% and reviewing European plants. Bankruptcies U.S. larger corporates: S&P reports 372 filings YTD—a 16-year high, led by industrial, consumer, and healthcare. Small businesses: Subchapter V filings u

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 03Aug2026) Key macroeconomic releases in the coming week will provide important signals on growth, inflation, labour-market conditions, and energy demand. Manufacturing and Inflation Indicators The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July is expected at 53.8, indicating continued expansion in global manufacturing activity. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for July will also be released. The previous ISM Manufacturing Prices reading of 73.0 pointed to inflationary pressure, which could eventually be passed on to consumers. Labour-Market Data Several labour-market indicators will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve ahead of its upcoming interest-rate decision: JOLTS job openings for June will be announced, follow

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026) Consumption and Consumer Sentiment June’s Durable Goods orders are forecast to rise by 1.6%, a notable improvement from the previous reading of -4.5%. This rebound is a positive indicator for consumption and suggests stronger demand momentum. The CB Consumer Confidence reading for July is forecast at 92.1. This points to weaker consumer confidence and lower market optimism, which may influence future consumption patterns. Energy Demand Indicator Crude oil inventories remain an important reference point for assessing producer expectations and future consumption. If inventories come in above expectations, it may suggest stronger supply conditions; if they fall below expectations, it could point to firmer demand.

After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators. Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026) I. U.S. equity indices have flipped shor

Market Outlook of S&P500 (03Aug2026) Technical Analysis Overview Source: Yahoo Finance dated 02Aug2026 MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 200-day (MA200) moving average but cut the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the long term and uncertain in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This is showing a bearish trend. Chaikin Money Flow The CMF index shows a score of 0.09, indicating more buying momentum than sell

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Jul2026) META $12 billion bond offer comes in at 7.6% on “weak demand”. So much pain coming to Oracle. On Monday, whose bonds are rapidly selling off at 7.9% to 8.1% while Meta was around 6.7%. - X user Roger Will this save Oracle? Are people leaving a sinking ship in BlackRock? JUST IN: OpenAI caught one of its AI agents leaving instructions for future versions to escape internal controls. - X user Watcher Guru Nike is planning to cut off thousands of online distributors in China beginning in January as the sneaker giant looks to clean up what’s become a messy digital marketplace and get the region back to growth, the company said Tuesday. Starting next year, Nike’s online footprint will shift primarily to the retailer’s official website and app,

【Money Market Fund】 US$ MMF Net 7-day Yield: +3.62%* The recent re-escalation of geopolitical tensions has led to rising yields, predominantly led by the front-end. Looking ahead, investors will focus on upcoming US CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh’s Congress testimony for further clues on the interest rate outlook. While lower oil prices compared with March-May levels is expected to lead to a negative June headline CPI print, HSBC believes front-end rates should remain supported as policymakers continue to focus on inflation risks and avoid providing clear forward guidance, keeping upcoming FOMC meetings "live" for potential policy action. *Bloomberg, as of 2026/07/10. 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal. 【REITs】 S$ SRT YTD total return: ‑2.24% As of 10

2026 is already halfway through, and the first half of the year has given investors plenty to talk about. AI remained one of the most important market themes, but the story kept expanding. It was no longer just about GPUs or mega-cap tech. Some stocks kept breaking new highs. Some names suddenly became market favorites after earnings. Some themes looked speculative at first, but continued to attract attention. And for many investors, H1 2026 probably came with at least one familiar feeling: “I saw it… but I didn’t buy it.” Maybe you watched an AI stock rally again and again. Maybe you hesitated before a semiconductor earnings report. Maybe you thought a nuclear or power stock had already gone too far. Maybe you sold too early and had to watch the stock keep climbing without you. At the sam

Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Jul2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 just completed a crossover and is on a downtrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 200-day (MA200) moving average but below the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the long term and bearish in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. We had some issues with the charts from both Yahoo Finance and Investing. Pardon missing the other indicators like Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and the Exponential

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 06Jul2026) Services Sector Indicators S&P Global Services PMI: The June forecast is 51.3, suggesting continued growth compared with the previous reading. ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices: The June release is expected in the coming week. The previous reading of 71.3 pointed to elevated inflationary pressures across the non-manufacturing sector, with higher costs likely filtering through to consumers. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The June forecast is 54.2, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. Energy Market Signals Crude oil inventories previously recorded a drawdown of more than 3.7 million barrels, suggesting producers may be responding to stronger expected consumer demand. This is a bullish indicator, and the upcoming release shou

The bull isn't dead, but "AI must pay." In the tug-of-war between soft landing and bubble peak, cash flow quality > growth story, and defensive rotation > single-track conviction. As of June 30, 2026 | Data sourced from aggregated market data H1 in One Thread: A Seller's Market for AI Infrastructure Summing up the first half 2026, the rally can be traced along one clear thread: AI compute demand → Semiconductor/storage/equipment orders surge → Earnings beats → Valuation re-rating → Leveraged capital floods in → Positive feedback loop Semiconductors, storage, and the AI supply chain were the absolute core of H1, full stop; Concept themes (lidar, hydrogen, OLED) going parabolic shows market capital hunting for "the next AI" narrative beyond the main thread; High-beta growth style compr

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

News and my thoughts from the past week (06Jul2026) The ability to innovate does not always translate to the ability to lead or manage. It can be a lapse or a flaw. Knowing the difference is important. Meta employees consumed 73.7 trillion AI tokens in a single month. That costs roughly $221 million a month, or $2.65 billion a year. The median Meta employee makes $388,200. At that rate, the token spend alone could pay for about 6,800 engineers for a full year. - X user Hedgie Half of investors have reduced their portfolio risk, while 62% expect a recession and 71% worry market volatility will hurt their finances. Gen Z is the most concerned, citing job security and weaker savings, per Allianz. - X user Unusual Whales Google reportedly doesn't have enough AI capacity to meet demand - Z user

Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

🚀 FTSE China A50 Futures – My 16-Point Morning Trade! 📈💰 $FTSE China A50 Index - Sep 2026(CN2609)$   Sometimes the best trades are not the biggest trades—they are the ones where I simply follow my trading plan. On 7 July 2026, I spotted a high-probability setup on the FTSE China A50 September 2026 Futures (CN2609). Instead of chasing the market or hoping for a miracle rally,I patiently waited for technical confirmation before entering my position. I went long at 14,808 and, just a few minutes later, I closed my position at 14,824, locking in a 16-point profit. Since every index point is worth US$1 per contract, this trade earned US$16 before commissions and fees. Some people may laugh and say, “Only US$16?”

The first half of 2026 is almost over, and AI remained the dominant theme on Wall Street. But the trade was no longer just about NVIDIA. Investors rotated across AI chips, memory, cloud computing, autonomous driving, robotics and the space economy. Some stocks rallied on stronger-than-expected earnings. Others stayed in the spotlight despite sharp pullbacks, as investors questioned valuations and the pace of AI monetization. Here are 10 of the most talked-about U.S. stocks among Tigers in the first half of 2026. $Micron Technology(MU)$ has been one of the biggest winners of the AI memory trade. Strong demand for HBM and DRAM, driven by AI data centers, helped push the stock sharply higher after a major earnings beat.

【Money Market Fund】 US$ MMF Net 7-day Yield: +3.56%* During the week, softer payroll data reduced expectations of an imminent Fed hike. Looking ahead, markets will focus on the release of the FOMC minutes for further insight into the Fed's assessment of inflation and growth risks. HSBC continues to see a hawkish bias at the front end as policymakers remain focused on inflation risks and keep all upcoming meetings "live" for potential policy action. *Bloomberg, as of 2026/07/02. 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal. 【REITs】 S$ SRT YTD total return: ‑3.02% As of 03 Jul 2026 (Fri), $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)$ declined 0.27% WTD in SGD, bringing YTD return to ‑3.02%. WTD losses were led by industrial, reta

Amidst the current macroeconomic environment where AI and related sectors are stealing the spotlight, the performance of crypto assets this year has been exceptionally weak, failing to capture any upward momentum. The reality is that in the realm of narrative-driven assets, Bitcoin's history and storytelling capabilities are just as strong as any other asset. However, once expectations are overdrawn and fail to materialize, a return to reality is inevitable. Nevertheless, after a sustained decline, the likelihood of a short-term stabilization and a corrective rebound is increasing. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$