On 9 October, Prime Minister and Finance Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim tabled Budget 2027, the fifth and maybe the last of the MADANI government.The headline figure is a record RM510 billion in total spending and investment, up from RM470 billion. Within that, federal expenditure is RM459.8 billion, made up of RM376.8 billion operating and RM83 billion development. The government is forecasting 4.2% to 5.2% GDP growth for 2027 and targets a fiscal deficit of 3.3% of GDP, narrowing to 3% by 2028.This is an expansionary budget, and very possibly the last one before GE16. So the question most readers care about is a simple one. How much more money will I actually have, and when? One timing point before the numbers. Personal income tax changes apply from Year of Assessment 2027. That means
Before diving in, I want to outline my biases in ETF selection. Firstly, my preference leans towards equities over other asset classes. This bias stems from equities' proven track record as the highest long-term return asset class, despite their inherent higher volatility. Consequently, you'll notice that all five ETFs I'm discussing are equity-based. Secondly, my preference is for strategy-based ETFs over those concentrated in specific countries, sectors, or themes. The reasoning is clear: choosing a country, sector, or theme necessitates accurate and timely selection, which may not be ideal for long-term holding. In contrast, a strategy-based ETF dynamically adjusts its exposure according to its investing criteria, offering a more resilient approach for investors. It's also worth noting
Markets continue to face a challenging combination of rising bond yields,persistent inflation pressures and uneven economic performance. Whiletechnology and semiconductor-related companies have continued to benefit from strong artificial intelligence-driven demand, weakness across cyclical andconsumer-sensitive sectors suggests that economic conditions remain mixed. Higher interest rates and elevated energy prices may continue to createperiods of volatility in the near term. Nevertheless, the portfolio remains focused on businesses with durable competitive advantages, strong balancesheets and favourable long-term earnings drivers. Portfolio positioningcontinues to emphasise quality, profitability and exposure to structural growththemes while remaining selective in sectors facing increasing
Higher-yielding bonds carry higher volatility and should be sized according to your goals and time horizon, and with a clear understanding of what determines their performance. yields (= government bond yields) could rise further, and a longer dated government bond-heavy allocation may be more vulnerable to “rate risk”. If your bond allocation is concentrated in developed market (DM) government bonds, it may be worth looking beyond traditional index-like exposures (40%–50% of which, by market value of outstanding debt, are made up of government bonds) into active management. Diversification spreads a bond allocation across different return drivers, and emerging market (EM) bonds are one part of that wider opportunity set worth a fresh look. Bonds have been in the spotlight in recent weeks,
investment grade bonds are more sensitive to rates (i.e. a higher duration risk), high yield bonds normally have a lower duration sensitivity, given their higher coupon income during the bond’s life and therefore lower price sensitivity to the present value of the final repayment cashflow. This gives high yield a slight edge from a rate risk perspective, especially for shorter duration high yield bonds. With credit fundamentals remaining strong and defaults low, and the quality composition of the US HY index now improving to more than 60% in highest tier BB-rated debt, high yield debt is presenting itself as a more attractive building block within fixed income. As the yield-to-worst chart earlier shows, the average US high yield bond yields around 8.4% today, providing about 240bps of yiel
The essence of technical analysis lies in quantitative summarisation and statistical observation of historical market behaviour, capital flows and crowd psychology. Price action and candlestick patterns reflect the power tug-of-war, liquidity build-up and risk preference between buyers and sellers at a given time and space. Whether it is the "bullish ascending triangle at bottom" or various moving average and channel breakouts, their function is never to "predict the future". Instead, they identify statistically favourable "high-probability windows" amid uncertain markets. Therefore, technical analysis is essentially probability distribution in statistics, not definite causal relationships why do many retail investors still struggle to profit in the market even after mastering technical pa
What holds the index up is AI. Micron, which makes memory chips for AI servers, has more than tripled this year. Nvidia is up 24%. The market is paying up for anything that sells into the AI boom, and marking down anything AI might replace. Intuit, the maker of TurboTax, has lost more than half its value as investors worry AI agents will do what its software does. The S&P 500 is up 13% this year. You would think most stocks are doing fine. About four in ten of the 500 are down this year, and 66 have fallen 20% or more. The typical stock is up about 6%, less than half the index. In September alone, 391 of them fell while the index slipped just 0.5%. One of this year’s biggest losers is a different kind of business. It is old school. Its work is done by people, by hand, in customers’ hom
Most investors don’t hold only short-term bonds. Longer bonds pay higher yields, and that’s what attracts them. Many of the popular bond funds are intermediate duration, holding bonds that mature in five to ten years. When longer-term yields rise, these funds get hit too. The maths is simple. When new bonds pay more, old bonds paying less have to fall in price until their yield matches. The longer the bond, the bigger the fall.On 1 October, TLT traded as low as US$76.76, the lowest price since it listed in 2002. A fund that holds nothing but US government bonds, at an all-time low. Does that look safe to you? Some will argue that they hold individual bonds, not a bond fund. The price drop is temporary, because you get your capital back at maturity. That’s true, as long as the bond makes it
Some will argue that they hold individual bonds, not a bond fund. The price drop is temporary, because you get your capital back at maturity. That’s true, as long as the bond makes it to maturity. Some never do. The most recent high profile example would be Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds, which became worthless in 2023. it has been a terrible few years ever since the Fed started hiking rates in 2022, and it isn’t over. On 16 September, the Fed raised rates again by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75% to 4%. That was its first hike since 2023.Most investors don’t hold only short-term bonds. Longer bonds pay higher yields, and that’s what attracts them. Many of the popular bond funds are intermediate duration, holding bonds that mature in five to ten years. When longer-term yields rise, these funds