To The Moon

For now, I’d call it a headline running ahead of the order. Musk confirmed that TSMC and Terafab are in discussions, but there is still no disclosed contract value, capacity commitment or firm timeline. That makes TSMC’s record high partly a bet on what the relationship could become rather than revenue already secured. That said, I can understand why the market likes TSMC here. If Terafab needs enormous leading-edge capacity, TSMC is difficult to avoid. Even a multi-foundry strategy could leave it as a major beneficiary. Intel is the more interesting side of the trade. Musk previously said Terafab planned to use Intel 14A, so bringing TSMC into the discussion weakens the idea that Intel has a privileged position. My verdict: positive signal for TSMC, negative negotiating signal for Intel,

Here is my personal take on whats actually happening behind the scenes: The Classic Elon Playbook (Maximum Leverage): Whenever Musk publicly anchors to a sole supplier, the clock starts ticking. Confirming talks with TSMC isn't just curiosity; it’s ruthless leverage. It signals to Intel: Deliver top-tier yields and aggressive wafer pricing, or watch the volume walk.   TSMC Is the Unavoidable Tollbooth: Bulls are right on the money here. Whether it’s custom silicon for autonomous fleets, high-throughput satellite comms, or Terafab scale, advanced packaging (CoWoS) and sub-3nm volume still lead back to TSMC. In the AI hardware gold rush, TSMC owns the pickaxes.   Bears Have a Point, but Sentiment Rules: Yes, a conversation is not a signed purchase order. But in semiconduc

just invest in s&p 500, buy when it drop or crash.. [Smile]

MNGA

I would rather own the index while selectively holding the strongest names. The Nasdaq hitting a record shows strong tech leadership, but the narrow market also means higher concentration risk. I am still bullish on the long-term AI trend, but I do not want to chase momentum blindly. I am watching semiconductors and AI infrastructure closely, but I prefer confirmation over headlines. I would rather wait for pullbacks and scale in gradually than make a large move after a strong rally. My approach remains DCA and adding gradually. The market can stay strong even when leadership is narrow, but I want to see broader participation before becoming more aggressive. For me, consistency and patience matter more than catching every short-term move.

Invest in TSMC good company

The Terafab headline looks bullish for TSMC and uncomfortable for Intel. But I think the market may be simplifying the story too much. TSMC closed at a record $485.80, up 2.75%, after Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla is in early discussions with TSMC regarding his enormous Terafab chip-manufacturing ambition. Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. SpaceX jumped 7.63% to $171.09. The immediate interpretation is obvious: TSMC wins. Intel loses. Musk gets his chips. I think reality is more interesting. Terafab could become so enormous that the ultimate winner isn't necessarily whichever foundry gets the project. It could be the company that becomes indispensable to the entire ecosystem. And right now, that still looks like TSMC. What Musk Actually Confirmed Terafab is Musk's vision for semiconductor manu

I’d take the index here. The big names may keep leading, but the concentration adds risk. Owning the index gives exposure to the leaders while still leaving room to benefit if market breadth improves

I’d still take the index. If the market leaders keep delivering strong earnings, the index benefits — and if leadership broadens out, even better. The bigger question now is whether the rally can spread beyond the usual names.

The indices: the Nasdaq set a record close, the Dow did not follow The three indices pulled apart on Monday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.05 per cent to 27,477.31, a record close for it, having reached 27,544.06 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.66 per cent to 7,773.95, still shy of its own record close by less than 0.6 per cent; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Industrial Average added just 0.18 per cent to 51,267.90. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31 per cent, three basis points above Friday. Put those three together and what made the high was not the breadth of the market but a handfu

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  didn’t need a signed Terafab contract to get Wall Street’s attention. After Elon Musk confirmed that TSMC is in discussions around the massive chip project, TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80. At the same time, Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. That divergence is what makes this story interesting. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner for Musk’s Terafab plans, with Musk saying the project would use Intel’s 14A process. Now TSMC is part of the conversation. But here’s the important distinction: TSMC is not replacing Intel — at least not based on what has been confirmed. Musk has described the TSMC discussions as preliminary, and there is no disclosed contract, order size,

One headline. Three very different market reactions. TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80 after Elon Musk confirmed that discussions are underway with TSMC around the proposed Terafab project. SpaceX surged 7.63% to $171.09. And Intel? Down 2.63% to $116.19 — the clear semiconductor laggard. That reaction tells an interesting story. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner connected to Musk’s chip ambitions. Now that TSMC is reportedly part of the conversation, investors appear to be reassessing just how much of that potential opportunity Intel can ultimately capture. But there’s another side to this trade. If Terafab requires leading-edge manufacturing capacity, TSMC could potentially benefit regardless of exactly how the final partnership is structured. That exp

[Love] [Shy]  

July 2036 portfolio gained SGD45000 or 8.3%. Dividend collection is SGD14000 year to date. During the dot-com crash of 2000, Berkshire Hathaway surged over 26% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ plummeted nearly 40%. This period perfectly illustrates "Berkshire Time"—a phenomenon where conservative, value-driven strategies shine while speculative markets crumble. My core portfolio mirrors this defensive philosophy, focusing heavily on Singapore (SG) and Hong Kong (HK) dividend-paying blue chips. To add a bit of growth potential, I maintain a smaller satellite portfolio dedicated to deeply discounted Hang Seng TECH (HS Tech) stocks. While this value-and-yield approach frequently lags behind during aggressive, growth-fueled market rallies, it proved its worth this month by successfully beating the

brc

Takeaways Q1 revenue rose 22%, while operating income grew 30%. Cloud revenue grew 63% and margin reached 32.9%. Search revenue rose 19%, with a lower traffic acquisition cost ratio. Q1 capex consumed 78% of operating cash flow. Forward P/E is about 24.6 times, while free cash flow yield is only 1.5%. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ reports second quarter results after the close on July 22. Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $116.9 billion, up 21.3% year over year, with EPS of $2.90. That EPS will look much lower than the $5.11 reported in Q1. The comparison is misleading. Equity investment gains added $28.7 billion to Q1 net income and $2.35 to EPS. I would strip those gains out and concentrate on operating income, free cash flow and the gro

📉 AI Hardware Sells Off… But the AI Supercycle Is Far From Over 🚀 The market just gave us a classic example of “sell the news.” 🔻 Nasdaq fell 1.47% 🔻 SOX plunged 4.3% 🔻 TSMC dropped despite reporting an incredible 77% YoY net profit growth 🔻 Memory, storage and semiconductor names were all dragged lower as the VIX jumped nearly 7%. At first glance, it looks like the AI story is breaking. I don’t think that’s what’s happening. Instead, I believe the market is transitioning into Phase 2 of the AI cycle. Phase 1: Buy Anything Related to AI Over the past two years, investors rewarded every company connected to AI infrastructure. GPUs, HBM, foundries, networking, cooling, storage—capital flowed aggressively into the entire ecosystem. Valuations expanded much faster than earnings. Phase 2: Prove

Hong Kong stocks opened higher on Monday (20 July), led by $BABA-W(09988)$ 's 5% gain as of 9.45am following the preview of its flagship Qwen AI model. Correspondingly, the Alibaba 5x Long DLC surged 25%, with the Alibaba 5x Short DLC down a similar magnitude. The move followed Friday’s broad sell-off, when the $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ declined more than 5%. Other technology stocks also rebounded at the open, with $KUAISHOU-W(01024)$ up 4.7% and $SMIC(00981)$ gaining 3.6%. The rally lifted HSTECH by more than 3% in early morning trading. Amplifying the move, the HSTECH 7x Long DLC rose by about 22%, while the HSTECH 7x Shor

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ Will inflation finally be unveiled as it has been overshadowed by the insane bullish run by technology sector over the past few months? Major semiconductor and AI related stocks all took a massive hit over the past two weeks, suffering a significant correction. Let’s see if it will recover this coming week. @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

🐶 Options Puppy 101: Why I Chose to Sell the NVIDIA $195 Cash-Secured Put (Educational Case Study) Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and explains one possible way an investor might think about a trade. It is not financial or investment advice. Every investor should do their own research and understand the risks before trading options. 📈 Introduction On 16 July, I sold one NVIDIA (NVDA) put option with a $195 strike price and an expiration date of 28 August 2026, collecting a premium of $6.40 per share, or $640 before commissions (one U.S. options contract represents 100 shares). This was not a random decision. Before placing the trade, I looked at the stock chart, moving averages, price action, and my own willingness to own NVIDIA shares if the option were assigned.

The Terafab headline looks bullish for TSMC and uncomfortable for Intel. But I think the market may be simplifying the story too much. TSMC closed at a record $485.80, up 2.75%, after Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla is in early discussions with TSMC regarding his enormous Terafab chip-manufacturing ambition. Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. SpaceX jumped 7.63% to $171.09. The immediate interpretation is obvious: TSMC wins. Intel loses. Musk gets his chips. I think reality is more interesting. Terafab could become so enormous that the ultimate winner isn't necessarily whichever foundry gets the project. It could be the company that becomes indispensable to the entire ecosystem. And right now, that still looks like TSMC. What Musk Actually Confirmed Terafab is Musk's vision for semiconductor manu

Here is my personal take on whats actually happening behind the scenes: The Classic Elon Playbook (Maximum Leverage): Whenever Musk publicly anchors to a sole supplier, the clock starts ticking. Confirming talks with TSMC isn't just curiosity; it’s ruthless leverage. It signals to Intel: Deliver top-tier yields and aggressive wafer pricing, or watch the volume walk.   TSMC Is the Unavoidable Tollbooth: Bulls are right on the money here. Whether it’s custom silicon for autonomous fleets, high-throughput satellite comms, or Terafab scale, advanced packaging (CoWoS) and sub-3nm volume still lead back to TSMC. In the AI hardware gold rush, TSMC owns the pickaxes.   Bears Have a Point, but Sentiment Rules: Yes, a conversation is not a signed purchase order. But in semiconduc

For now, I’d call it a headline running ahead of the order. Musk confirmed that TSMC and Terafab are in discussions, but there is still no disclosed contract value, capacity commitment or firm timeline. That makes TSMC’s record high partly a bet on what the relationship could become rather than revenue already secured. That said, I can understand why the market likes TSMC here. If Terafab needs enormous leading-edge capacity, TSMC is difficult to avoid. Even a multi-foundry strategy could leave it as a major beneficiary. Intel is the more interesting side of the trade. Musk previously said Terafab planned to use Intel 14A, so bringing TSMC into the discussion weakens the idea that Intel has a privileged position. My verdict: positive signal for TSMC, negative negotiating signal for Intel,

The indices: the Nasdaq set a record close, the Dow did not follow The three indices pulled apart on Monday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.05 per cent to 27,477.31, a record close for it, having reached 27,544.06 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.66 per cent to 7,773.95, still shy of its own record close by less than 0.6 per cent; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Industrial Average added just 0.18 per cent to 51,267.90. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31 per cent, three basis points above Friday. Put those three together and what made the high was not the breadth of the market but a handfu

just invest in s&p 500, buy when it drop or crash.. [Smile]

I would rather own the index while selectively holding the strongest names. The Nasdaq hitting a record shows strong tech leadership, but the narrow market also means higher concentration risk. I am still bullish on the long-term AI trend, but I do not want to chase momentum blindly. I am watching semiconductors and AI infrastructure closely, but I prefer confirmation over headlines. I would rather wait for pullbacks and scale in gradually than make a large move after a strong rally. My approach remains DCA and adding gradually. The market can stay strong even when leadership is narrow, but I want to see broader participation before becoming more aggressive. For me, consistency and patience matter more than catching every short-term move.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  didn’t need a signed Terafab contract to get Wall Street’s attention. After Elon Musk confirmed that TSMC is in discussions around the massive chip project, TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80. At the same time, Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. That divergence is what makes this story interesting. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner for Musk’s Terafab plans, with Musk saying the project would use Intel’s 14A process. Now TSMC is part of the conversation. But here’s the important distinction: TSMC is not replacing Intel — at least not based on what has been confirmed. Musk has described the TSMC discussions as preliminary, and there is no disclosed contract, order size,

One headline. Three very different market reactions. TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80 after Elon Musk confirmed that discussions are underway with TSMC around the proposed Terafab project. SpaceX surged 7.63% to $171.09. And Intel? Down 2.63% to $116.19 — the clear semiconductor laggard. That reaction tells an interesting story. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner connected to Musk’s chip ambitions. Now that TSMC is reportedly part of the conversation, investors appear to be reassessing just how much of that potential opportunity Intel can ultimately capture. But there’s another side to this trade. If Terafab requires leading-edge manufacturing capacity, TSMC could potentially benefit regardless of exactly how the final partnership is structured. That exp

MNGA

Invest in TSMC good company

I’d still take the index. If the market leaders keep delivering strong earnings, the index benefits — and if leadership broadens out, even better. The bigger question now is whether the rally can spread beyond the usual names.

I’d take the index here. The big names may keep leading, but the concentration adds risk. Owning the index gives exposure to the leaders while still leaving room to benefit if market breadth improves

[Love] [Shy]  

🎓 Macquarie Warrants 101 – What I Learned After Receiving a S$20 Seminar Voucher Congratulations on receiving the S$20 Macquarie Stock Cash Voucher after attending the seminar! It is a nice way to encourage participants to learn about structured warrants before trading. ⸻ 🌟 Some Popular Macquarie Warrants Macquarie issues warrants on many well-known stocks and indices. Popular examples include: * Alibaba – Call and Put Warrants (e.g. JCJW Put) * BYD – Call and Put Warrants (e.g. OPCW Call) * Hang Seng Index (HSI) – Call and Put Warrants * Nasdaq-100 – Call Warrants (e.g. EFKW) * Nikkei 225 – Call and Put Warrants (e.g. YHSW) * Meituan * Tencent * Xiaomi * Bilibili These are among the more actively followed Macquarie warrants on SGX. ⸻ 📈 How Do Call Warrants Work? A Call Warrant is generall

Takeaways Q1 revenue rose 22%, while operating income grew 30%. Cloud revenue grew 63% and margin reached 32.9%. Search revenue rose 19%, with a lower traffic acquisition cost ratio. Q1 capex consumed 78% of operating cash flow. Forward P/E is about 24.6 times, while free cash flow yield is only 1.5%. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ reports second quarter results after the close on July 22. Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $116.9 billion, up 21.3% year over year, with EPS of $2.90. That EPS will look much lower than the $5.11 reported in Q1. The comparison is misleading. Equity investment gains added $28.7 billion to Q1 net income and $2.35 to EPS. I would strip those gains out and concentrate on operating income, free cash flow and the gro

🐶 Options Puppy 101: Why I Chose to Sell the NVIDIA $195 Cash-Secured Put (Educational Case Study) Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and explains one possible way an investor might think about a trade. It is not financial or investment advice. Every investor should do their own research and understand the risks before trading options. 📈 Introduction On 16 July, I sold one NVIDIA (NVDA) put option with a $195 strike price and an expiration date of 28 August 2026, collecting a premium of $6.40 per share, or $640 before commissions (one U.S. options contract represents 100 shares). This was not a random decision. Before placing the trade, I looked at the stock chart, moving averages, price action, and my own willingness to own NVIDIA shares if the option were assigned.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ TSMC and ASML have delivered another strong signal for the AI semiconductor cycle. TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of $40.2 billion, a gross margin of 67.7%, and net profit growth of 77.4% year over year. ASML, meanwhile, raised its 2026 revenue outlook from €36 billion–€40 billion to €43 billion–€45 billion, while preparing to expand EUV and immersion DUV capacity again in 2027 and 2028. Together, the two earnings reports confirm that demand for AI chips, advanced process nodes, HBM and semiconductor equipment remains strong. The next question is moving downstream: Can Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazo

📉 AI Hardware Sells Off… But the AI Supercycle Is Far From Over 🚀 The market just gave us a classic example of “sell the news.” 🔻 Nasdaq fell 1.47% 🔻 SOX plunged 4.3% 🔻 TSMC dropped despite reporting an incredible 77% YoY net profit growth 🔻 Memory, storage and semiconductor names were all dragged lower as the VIX jumped nearly 7%. At first glance, it looks like the AI story is breaking. I don’t think that’s what’s happening. Instead, I believe the market is transitioning into Phase 2 of the AI cycle. Phase 1: Buy Anything Related to AI Over the past two years, investors rewarded every company connected to AI infrastructure. GPUs, HBM, foundries, networking, cooling, storage—capital flowed aggressively into the entire ecosystem. Valuations expanded much faster than earnings. Phase 2: Prove

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ delivered another strong quarter. Revenue and earnings both came in ahead of expectations, and management raised full-year guidance for the second time this year. On the surface, this looks like another solid earnings report. But the bigger takeaway isn't about ASML alone. It's about what its results are telling us about the next phase of the AI infrastructure cycle. Equipment Makers Don't Tell You Who Wins. They Tell You How Long the Cycle Can Last. Unlike chip designers, ASML doesn't compete for AI market share. Its business sits much further upstream. That makes its guidance one of the clearest indicators of whether semiconductor manufacturers are still expanding capacity. When an equipment supplier sees accelerating dem

July 2036 portfolio gained SGD45000 or 8.3%. Dividend collection is SGD14000 year to date. During the dot-com crash of 2000, Berkshire Hathaway surged over 26% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ plummeted nearly 40%. This period perfectly illustrates "Berkshire Time"—a phenomenon where conservative, value-driven strategies shine while speculative markets crumble. My core portfolio mirrors this defensive philosophy, focusing heavily on Singapore (SG) and Hong Kong (HK) dividend-paying blue chips. To add a bit of growth potential, I maintain a smaller satellite portfolio dedicated to deeply discounted Hang Seng TECH (HS Tech) stocks. While this value-and-yield approach frequently lags behind during aggressive, growth-fueled market rallies, it proved its worth this month by successfully beating the