To The Moon

Gold and silver gapped higher to fresh record highs, but the weekly time frame is sending mixed signals.Last week, precious metals continued their upward momentum, led by silver. At the start of this week, gold gapped sharply higher to a new all-time high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland. Both fundamental (news-driven) and technical factors are currently supporting further upside. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ From a timing perspective, the "ninth signal" on the weekly chart is notably more pronounced in silver’s price behavior. Historically, during the previous five occurrences of this signal—even when silver was firmly entrenched in a strong bullish trend—it still experienced some degree of correction or sideway

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1.Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ During Asian trading hours on Friday (January 16), gold maintained its intraday pullback, currently hovering near $4,598, down $20 for the session. On the H4 chart, gold fluctuates near the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the upward momentum of this moving average showing signs of weakening. Meanwhile, the 100-period and 200-period SMAs retain their bullish bias, with gold holding above these moving averages. Initial support lies near the 100-period SMA at $4476.27. Additionally, momentum indicators are trending lower around the midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has weakened to around 55, reflecting ins

At this point, it finally feels possible to roughly tell what Trump is trying to do.He first took the extraordinary step of seizing Venezuela’s president, threw Venezuela into turmoil, and wrecked its economy. He then threatened to launch military strikes against Iran, and just the day before yesterday issued a security alert telling all U.S. citizens in Iran to leave immediately, building momentum as if a real military operation were about to begin. A simple tally of the countries Trump has threatened or actually acted against since the start of January 2026 is startling: in just half a month, the U.S. president has made threatening statements or taken coercive actions targeting 11 countries/regions.So what is he trying to do? The answer lies in the U.S. Dollar Index standing at the edge

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ prices surged in Asian trading, continuing to set new records! It successfully broke through the psychological barrier of 4600, reaching a high of around 4601.1! This signal is very clear; the upward trend will continue! Meanwhile, the technical pullback held the important support level of 4550. The upcoming European and New York markets will continue to focus on buy orders! New highs will be continuously set this week! Strategy: Buy: around 4560-65, TP: 4620, SL: 4548ImageFor SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ prices fell nearly 1% on Wednesday (January 7), partly due to profit-taking after recent gains. Additionally, optimistic U.S. services sector activity data and resilient labor market data offset geopolitical risks, contributing to the nearly 1% drop.Gold closed down $37.89, or 0.84%, at $4456.32 on Wednesday; it had earlier plunged as much as 1.7% to $4422.89 per ounce.Gold prices retreated from $4500 as strong U.S. economic data dampened safe-haven demand. Gold prices fell nearly 1% on Wednesday after the ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose, suggesting more robust U.S. economic momentum.Key U.S. economic data for the remainder of the week includes

Daylight robbery has descended upon America and it's government. MAGA is at the expense of other countries in the guise of upholding security....

At the start of the new year, the drama keeps coming. Over the weekend, the United States launched an operation, directly apprehending Venezuela’s president and bringing him to the U.S. for trial; the speed of the action and the precision of the intelligence once again demonstrated America’s military capabilities. Although there are rumors that the operation went so smoothly because there was an insider, being able to secure an insider is itself a reflection of military strength. Since the incident both occurred and concluded over the weekend (many recent military operations share this style: short duration, clear objectives, and no sustained escalation in responses from either side), for financial markets it would likely be digested within the few hours from Monday’s open through the Asia

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ On Wednesday, key US economic data will be released, with investors focusing on December's ADP employment change, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and November's JOLTS job openings.Following this, the market will focus on Friday's US December non-farm payrolls report, with an expected increase of 60,000 jobs, slightly lower than the 64,000 added in the previous month.According to LSEG data, traders are already pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year. In a low-interest-rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is typically more attractive. 2.Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$

The biggest holiday topic is America's move against Maduro, with most analyses covering directly affected assets. This piece focuses on the hidden agenda: dollar dominance.​Common views hold that the US (under Trump) seeks Venezuela's rich oil and commodity resources. Compared to the 1980s oil wars' brute force, today's tactics lack "martial virtue" but prove more effective.​Yet, as ancient wisdom states, subduing the enemy without fighting is the ultimate strategy—direct intervention signals a loss of control.​(Dollar index performance over the past 60 years)​Latin America's Dollar DependenceFor decades, South America and even Canada's North America have fallen fully under US influence. Through debt and the dollar—the two financial weapons—Latin countries have played the role of beasts of

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ Gold prices surged in Asian trading on Monday (January 5), breaking through the $4,400/ounce mark. US President Donald Trump issued a new warning that Venezuela's post-Maduro leadership must abide by certain conditions or face "very heavy costs."The US launched a military strike against Venezuela early Saturday morning (January 3), detaining President Nicolás Maduro and announcing a complete US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry.Gold reached a high of $4,421.53/ounce in Asian trading on Monday, a surge of $89 on the day. Silver prices also jumped nearly 4%. 2.The first full trading week of 2026 is about to begin, and the market will quickly switc

As the year-end approaches, the market continues last week's trend, with relatively light trading volume. During such quiet periods, a short-term piece of news can often trigger significant market volatility, so everyone needs to pay slight attention (especially those chasing rallies). Over the weekend, the CME Group issued a major margin adjustment notice on December 26th, stating that it will comprehensively increase the performance margins for metal futures such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium after the close on Monday, December 29th.Normally, this is just a routine exchange operation for high-volatility products. However, when a product experiences abnormally rapid one-sided movement in a short period, such news often leads to substantial volatility (though not necessarily a t

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold Trading Alert: Year-End Consolidation at High Levels? Aiming for a New Peak of $5,000 by 2026? Gold opened strongly again today, hitting a new all-time high of $4,530.96. This aligns with yesterday's projected trajectory.This week's gold movements follow discernible patterns: Asian session opens with gains, European session sees consolidation, and U.S. session dips before rebounding! Today's trading may also adhere to this pattern. Maintain a Buy-focused approach for short-term trades!For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of

Key point：Whether gold can post a meaningful new high is a key yardstick for judging whether silver is due for a sharp pullback.Driven by silver’s relentless march to new highs, gold finally showed some movement last week. However, on the one hand, even as futures made new highs, spot prices have not yet kept pace; on the other hand, the futures “new high” itself looked more symbolic than decisive. This reluctance to follow silver is concerning. Although silver has effectively been the true leader since April this year, gold’s historical status means its value still cannot be ignored.​To break its prior historical high, gold futures took two months—far behind silver—and even after the breakout, the contrast between the two is stark. When silver broke out in November, that week produced a s

As the year-end approaches, the market gradually enters a clearing period and trading activity becomes lighter. Overseas markets are about to enter the Christmas and New Year holidays, which makes this a suitable time to review the past and think about how to position trading ideas for the year ahead. Next year, like this year, is also expected to be a high-volatility year, with risks and opportunities coexisting. In January, there will be an introduction to the major trading opportunities for the coming year—stay tuned. In the meantime, even if the remaining time this year is relatively quiet, there are strategies designed for quiet markets, and this period is particularly suitable for using them.The Nasdaq rebounded from support as expected​Last week’s post stated very clearly that the N

After the policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were released, the market’s largest near-term risk window has largely passed.​Based on how price action has responded so far, the Santa rally has very likely begun; historically, it typically runs from late December into early January, and U.S. equities have a high probability of grinding higher with choppy gains during this period.​What’s more, while mega-cap tech looks expensive, the overall valuation of the equal-weight S&P 500 is not particularly stretched, so over the coming week it may be worth considering a strategy of selling weekly put options on Nasdaq futures with strikes below the 20-week moving average.​At the same time, it also makes sense to prepare in advance for a potential explosive move in commo

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold Technical AnalysisGold prices appear to have entered a consolidation phase, as buyers failed to break through the previous all-time high of $4,381 and challenge the $4,400 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bullish momentum is waning, with the RSI retreating from overbought territory.With the daily closing price falling below $4,350, the first support level is at $4,300. A breach below this level could test the December 11 high of $4,285, with further support near $4,250. A sustained decline could then extend toward $4,200. Trading recommendation: M

The U.S. stock market saw a pullback, and while a decline in equity indices is entirely normal, an intraday headline made the move particularly noteworthy. Markets had largely assumed the next Federal Reserve Chair would be White House chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett. However, last Friday (local time), President Trump said that as he considers a successor to Powell, he is leaning toward “two Kevins”—Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Although Hassett has been viewed as the front-runner, Trump noted that after a 45-minute White House meeting with Warsh on Wednesday, Warsh has also entered his top tier of preferred candidates. That news contributed to a pullback in U.S. equity indices, suggesting that markets view Warsh as a relatively hawkish option whose comments may be amplified further,

Gold and silver gapped higher to fresh record highs, but the weekly time frame is sending mixed signals.Last week, precious metals continued their upward momentum, led by silver. At the start of this week, gold gapped sharply higher to a new all-time high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland. Both fundamental (news-driven) and technical factors are currently supporting further upside. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ From a timing perspective, the "ninth signal" on the weekly chart is notably more pronounced in silver’s price behavior. Historically, during the previous five occurrences of this signal—even when silver was firmly entrenched in a strong bullish trend—it still experienced some degree of correction or sideway

At this point, it finally feels possible to roughly tell what Trump is trying to do.He first took the extraordinary step of seizing Venezuela’s president, threw Venezuela into turmoil, and wrecked its economy. He then threatened to launch military strikes against Iran, and just the day before yesterday issued a security alert telling all U.S. citizens in Iran to leave immediately, building momentum as if a real military operation were about to begin. A simple tally of the countries Trump has threatened or actually acted against since the start of January 2026 is startling: in just half a month, the U.S. president has made threatening statements or taken coercive actions targeting 11 countries/regions.So what is he trying to do? The answer lies in the U.S. Dollar Index standing at the edge

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1.Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ During Asian trading hours on Friday (January 16), gold maintained its intraday pullback, currently hovering near $4,598, down $20 for the session. On the H4 chart, gold fluctuates near the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the upward momentum of this moving average showing signs of weakening. Meanwhile, the 100-period and 200-period SMAs retain their bullish bias, with gold holding above these moving averages. Initial support lies near the 100-period SMA at $4476.27. Additionally, momentum indicators are trending lower around the midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has weakened to around 55, reflecting ins

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

At the start of the new year, the drama keeps coming. Over the weekend, the United States launched an operation, directly apprehending Venezuela’s president and bringing him to the U.S. for trial; the speed of the action and the precision of the intelligence once again demonstrated America’s military capabilities. Although there are rumors that the operation went so smoothly because there was an insider, being able to secure an insider is itself a reflection of military strength. Since the incident both occurred and concluded over the weekend (many recent military operations share this style: short duration, clear objectives, and no sustained escalation in responses from either side), for financial markets it would likely be digested within the few hours from Monday’s open through the Asia

The biggest holiday topic is America's move against Maduro, with most analyses covering directly affected assets. This piece focuses on the hidden agenda: dollar dominance.​Common views hold that the US (under Trump) seeks Venezuela's rich oil and commodity resources. Compared to the 1980s oil wars' brute force, today's tactics lack "martial virtue" but prove more effective.​Yet, as ancient wisdom states, subduing the enemy without fighting is the ultimate strategy—direct intervention signals a loss of control.​(Dollar index performance over the past 60 years)​Latin America's Dollar DependenceFor decades, South America and even Canada's North America have fallen fully under US influence. Through debt and the dollar—the two financial weapons—Latin countries have played the role of beasts of

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

As the year-end approaches, the market continues last week's trend, with relatively light trading volume. During such quiet periods, a short-term piece of news can often trigger significant market volatility, so everyone needs to pay slight attention (especially those chasing rallies). Over the weekend, the CME Group issued a major margin adjustment notice on December 26th, stating that it will comprehensively increase the performance margins for metal futures such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium after the close on Monday, December 29th.Normally, this is just a routine exchange operation for high-volatility products. However, when a product experiences abnormally rapid one-sided movement in a short period, such news often leads to substantial volatility (though not necessarily a t

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ Gold prices surged in Asian trading on Monday (January 5), breaking through the $4,400/ounce mark. US President Donald Trump issued a new warning that Venezuela's post-Maduro leadership must abide by certain conditions or face "very heavy costs."The US launched a military strike against Venezuela early Saturday morning (January 3), detaining President Nicolás Maduro and announcing a complete US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry.Gold reached a high of $4,421.53/ounce in Asian trading on Monday, a surge of $89 on the day. Silver prices also jumped nearly 4%. 2.The first full trading week of 2026 is about to begin, and the market will quickly switc

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ On Wednesday, key US economic data will be released, with investors focusing on December's ADP employment change, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and November's JOLTS job openings.Following this, the market will focus on Friday's US December non-farm payrolls report, with an expected increase of 60,000 jobs, slightly lower than the 64,000 added in the previous month.According to LSEG data, traders are already pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year. In a low-interest-rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is typically more attractive. 2.Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$

After the policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were released, the market’s largest near-term risk window has largely passed.​Based on how price action has responded so far, the Santa rally has very likely begun; historically, it typically runs from late December into early January, and U.S. equities have a high probability of grinding higher with choppy gains during this period.​What’s more, while mega-cap tech looks expensive, the overall valuation of the equal-weight S&P 500 is not particularly stretched, so over the coming week it may be worth considering a strategy of selling weekly put options on Nasdaq futures with strikes below the 20-week moving average.​At the same time, it also makes sense to prepare in advance for a potential explosive move in commo

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ prices surged in Asian trading, continuing to set new records! It successfully broke through the psychological barrier of 4600, reaching a high of around 4601.1! This signal is very clear; the upward trend will continue! Meanwhile, the technical pullback held the important support level of 4550. The upcoming European and New York markets will continue to focus on buy orders! New highs will be continuously set this week! Strategy: Buy: around 4560-65, TP: 4620, SL: 4548ImageFor SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

As the year-end approaches, the market gradually enters a clearing period and trading activity becomes lighter. Overseas markets are about to enter the Christmas and New Year holidays, which makes this a suitable time to review the past and think about how to position trading ideas for the year ahead. Next year, like this year, is also expected to be a high-volatility year, with risks and opportunities coexisting. In January, there will be an introduction to the major trading opportunities for the coming year—stay tuned. In the meantime, even if the remaining time this year is relatively quiet, there are strategies designed for quiet markets, and this period is particularly suitable for using them.The Nasdaq rebounded from support as expected​Last week’s post stated very clearly that the N

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ prices fell nearly 1% on Wednesday (January 7), partly due to profit-taking after recent gains. Additionally, optimistic U.S. services sector activity data and resilient labor market data offset geopolitical risks, contributing to the nearly 1% drop.Gold closed down $37.89, or 0.84%, at $4456.32 on Wednesday; it had earlier plunged as much as 1.7% to $4422.89 per ounce.Gold prices retreated from $4500 as strong U.S. economic data dampened safe-haven demand. Gold prices fell nearly 1% on Wednesday after the ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose, suggesting more robust U.S. economic momentum.Key U.S. economic data for the remainder of the week includes

Key point：Whether gold can post a meaningful new high is a key yardstick for judging whether silver is due for a sharp pullback.Driven by silver’s relentless march to new highs, gold finally showed some movement last week. However, on the one hand, even as futures made new highs, spot prices have not yet kept pace; on the other hand, the futures “new high” itself looked more symbolic than decisive. This reluctance to follow silver is concerning. Although silver has effectively been the true leader since April this year, gold’s historical status means its value still cannot be ignored.​To break its prior historical high, gold futures took two months—far behind silver—and even after the breakout, the contrast between the two is stark. When silver broke out in November, that week produced a s

Be cautious: this week, both U.S. equities and the two most crowded assets—gold and silver—are sitting in a fragile equilibrium of “high prices + low volatility + high leverage.” On top of that, the headline calendar includes Quadruple witching day, a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the return of the previously paused U.S. nonfarm payrolls release—factors that make a meaningful volatility expansion highly likely. In such an environment, any one-way bet can easily be whipsawed as take-profit and stop-loss orders get triggered repeatedly.​In these conditions—especially before the Bank of Japan announces its policy decision—the priority should shift away from trying to be “right” on a single directional call. The focus should be on protecting earlier gains and controlling drawdowns, because the

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter

Many people may not yet have noticed that the current market is showing a very intriguing and seemingly contradictory pattern. On one hand, bond market pricing suggests that investors do not believe the Federal Reserve, even after its leadership change, can smoothly and quickly transition into a clearly dovish policy environment. On the other hand, silver prices have hit fresh highs even without any visible squeeze caused by tightness in the physical inventory. The gold–silver ratio has undergone a technical collapse, which implies that market bets on future inflation remain elevated, and silver is very likely front-running a new upcycle in broader commodities.​国内现货白银市场的基差持续走弱，但美白银仍然持续逼空上涨In Chinese physical silver market, the basis has continued to weaken, yet U.S. silver prices are still