To The Moon

On Friday night, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6–3 to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariff policy, ruling that it exceeded presidential authority. Because the decision had been widely anticipated, the market reaction was relatively muted, and U.S. equity indices even rebounded. However, Trump quickly voiced his dissatisfaction and announced a 15% global tariff (up from 10%) while launching a new investigation, stating, “We will be able to levy tariffs—more tariffs.” Since the additional tariff measures were announced over the weekend, Monday becomes the first real test of how sensitive the market is to this news. Overall, the tariff hike is a modest negative for U.S. equity indices, but for gold and silver it may serve as a catalyst for a renewed upswing.

Will higher tariffs trigger a sharp sell-off in U.S. equity indices?​

A large-scale tariff issue already occurred around the same time last year, so the market is clearly not unfamiliar with it or overly fearful. In addition, Trump tends to exhibit “TACO” characteristics, and he is expected to visit China in late March or early April. For these reasons, the tax hike is not likely to be perceived as a major “bombshell.” After a gap down at the open and a mild pullback, the odds of a rebound-buying move look relatively high.

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From a technical perspective, the S&P remains above the 20-week moving average, which serves as a key bull–bear dividing line. Support at that moving average is evident, but U.S. equity indices also lack a strong positive catalyst, so price action is likely to stay choppy and range-bound. In terms of strategy, consider a short-term buy near 6,800 on the S&P, and take profits if it rebounds to 7,000. As long as price does not break below the 20-week moving average, shorting is not recommended; if you go long, use a breakdown as your stop-loss signal.

For those who can trade options, continue using the approach shared before the holiday: systematically sell short-dated index put options on a rolling basis along the 20-week moving average, accumulating option premium income. In live trading, the strategy has gained 6% over the past two months since the start of the year (36% annualized). While the return is not especially high, the logic is stable, making it a reasonable choice within a strategy allocation—provided risk control is handled properly.

Are precious metals set for a comeback?​

On a monthly chart, up to the current level, precious metals have not experienced even a single-month correction—let alone a breakdown below any major long-term moving average. This suggests that after any consolidation, the broader precious-metals complex remains strong; the main difference lies in shifts in the gold–silver ratio, i.e., whether gold or silver is leading

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In terms of stability, gold remains the preferred long-side choice. As for silver, the sharp drop indicates that the March squeeze has, for now, come to an end. However, if the exchange’s registered warrants for final delivery in March do not increase substantially, there may still be renewed potential for another squeeze later on. That said, a fresh squeeze-type move would likely require more time to build (around 3–4 months). Silver’s price action in the 70–120 USD/oz range is still likely to be highly volatile; during this period, the opportunity set is better suited to short-term traders. The 10-day moving average has continued to be effective, and it is still worth monitoring closely

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