To The Moon

California’s Wildfire Bill Turns PCG and EIX Back Into High-Risk Assets One-line takeaway: Utility stocks may offer protection against the economic cycle, but they are not necessarily protected from wildfire liabilities, regulatory changes or the legal risks of a single state. The biggest individual stock moves in the U.S. market on Monday did not come from the technology sector, but from traditionally “defensive” stocks. PG&E $PG&E Corp(PCG)$ fell 20.1%; Edison International $Edison(EIX)$ dropped 23.1%; Sempra $Sempra(SRE)$ declined 3.1%. The trigger was a California wildfire bill. The final version did not in

While the Dow logging its fifth straight monthly win demonstrates underlying resilience, holding those gains through September will be a steep uphill battle. Historically, September is the statistically weakest month of the year for equities, and the current macro backdrop amplifies that seasonal trap. Three Core Drivers Shaping the September Outlook: The Inflation & Energy Squeeze: U.S. military strikes on Iran's Larak Island sent Brent crude surging to $91.28 (+9% in August). Rising oil acts as a tax on consumers while directly feeding back into sticky inflation expectations, creating margin pressure across traditional industrials and discretionary names. Hawkish Policy Pivot: Higher energy prices reinforce Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, pushing market-implied odds o

Fed Chair - Kevin Warsh. On Fri, 28 Aug 2026 at the US central bank‘s annual economic policy symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh spoke on his 100th day as Chairman. This was a much-awaited speech as the new Fed chair has unilaterally decided to adopt a less interactive, significantly scaled-back approach to how the central bank communicates with the public and financial markets. Rather than maintaining the highly talkative, guiding role of his predecessors, Warsh has initiated a "quiet revolution" aimed at restoring mystery and removing the market's over-reliance on the central bank. He has even suggested scaling back the number of FOMC meetings to six from eight. This is still a discussion-in-progress. Jackson Hole, Wyoming Speech. At Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh us

Kevin Warsh’s inaugural appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium delivered a surprisingly hawkish stance, elevating September 2026 rate hike odds to 60% and reshaping market expectations for Q3 2026. Prior consensus favored an extended monetary pause; however, Warsh highlighted sticky core inflation and labor market tightness, warning against premature policy easing. This policy pivot induces equity valuation contraction, particularly in hyper-growth and long-duration tech sectors. Simultaneously, a sharp sector rotation is underway, favoring cash-generative value sectors (Energy, Financials, Short-Duration Value) over rate-sensitive growth assets. Fixed income and currency markets face heightened volatility: short-term Treasury yields have surged, driving a bear-flattening yield curve, wh

No one knows for certain which stock will go up or down

#Warsh Just Changed the Market Regime — And Tech Is the First Casualty Warsh’s Jackson Hole message wasn’t simply “rates might go higher.” The bigger signal is that the Fed is no longer willing to treat modest disinflation as evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%. That matters because PCE is still running well above target, while the market had been positioned for easier policy. (Federal Reserve) September hike odds have jumped from roughly 35% to around 60%, while the 2-year Treasury yield immediately repriced higher. (Reuters) My read: this is most bearish for high-duration tech, less straightforward for BTC, and potentially the most complicated for gold. 1️⃣ Tech — biggest fundamental pressure QQQ is vulnerable because higher front-end yields directly increase the disco

asset classes with high interest-rate sensitivity get hit differently across the board: Tech (QQQ): Facing immediate headwinds from front-end rate repricing. Higher risk-free yields compress equity multiples for growth companies and raise short-term borrowing costs, keeping tech volatile until terminal rate expectations settle.

Don't fight a Fed Chair determined to prove his inflation-fighting credentials. Tactical defense via cash/gold allocation beats trying to catch falling tech knives while rate hikes are back on the table.

Avoid chasing the initial dip in rate-sensitive tech (QQQ). Gold offers the cleanest risk-reward on tactical pullbacks as a hedge against stubborn stagflation risks, while Bitcoin remains best played on confirmed support levels once rate-hike expectations fully settle.

Hello. After Warsh spoke on Friday, one estimate put the odds of a September rate rise at 60 per cent. Over the weekend US forces struck Iran and Brent crude went above US$90. Dearer oil makes inflation harder to hold down. But this particular fire is burning on the supply side, where a rate rise will not put it out and will press on demand as well. In three days, September became a harder question. This was Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole as chair. He restated the commitment to holding inflation down, and coverage rated the speech "moderately hawkish". He made clear he was not offering forward guidance; a former Fed vice chair said he had given it anyway. The market took him at his word: the two-year Treasury yield jumped, spot gold fell from US$4,649.60 last Thursday to US$4,478

If the Fed raises rates in September, this will be the first time since 2022, two months before elections that it has tightened policy

I would choose tech, but add gradually rather than chase. Warsh’s message materially changes the near-term regime. He explicitly said 2% PCE is a “firm, fixed target”, financial conditions are not broadly restrictive, labour markets are consistent with full employment, and inflation progress has been modest. Markets now price roughly a 60% probability of a September hike, while Barclays has shifted to expecting September and December hikes.  My ranking would be Tech > Gold > BTC for the next several months. Tech faces valuation compression from higher yields, but AI capex and earnings growth provide a fundamental earnings anchor. Gold remains attractive structurally, but after its enormous run, a stronger dollar and rising real yields could force further consolidation. Bitcoin i

A stronger dollar is collateral damage. The ECB is also hawking, but the Bank of England is sitting still and the Bank of Japan is still on the loose edge – the relative strength of the dollar will neutralise emerging markets and commodities

The market is telling you: the short term risk of raising interest rates on reprice but not buying on the long term – investors believe that Wash will eventually bring inflation down and are reluctant to push up term premiums. This yield curve flattening signal is one of the most alarming macro cracks in the second half of 2026.

Morgan Stanley's chief US economist Michael Gapen argues that "inflation is slowing down" should be enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines in September.

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. So what a typhoon week, with NVDA earnings announcement and Warsh first press conference outside of fed rate announcement. Still adoping a conservative and dodging approach when it comes to forward guidance and future predictions. Market clearly did not like the speech, turning red right after his speech ended. With so much conflict and turmoil happening in the world right now, I definitely empathize with him as it is definitely as challenging as ever to navigate these choppy waters. And as you can see in the last article, social security funding in US is depleting at a rapid rate, which puts further pressure on the shoulders of younger generatio

Warsh’s Jackson Hole Verdict: Hawkish on Rates, Bullish on AI Growth Warsh’s speech was hawkish on interest rates, but constructive on economic growth and AI demand. Relative to my earlier best/base/worst-case framework, the outcome landed between the base and worst cases—closer to worst for rates, but more constructive for AI growth. 🔴 Inflation: Hawkish 🔴 Labour: Strong enough to tolerate tighter policy 🔴 Financial conditions: Not restrictive 🟢 Economic growth: Resilient 🟢 AI investment: Structurally strong 🟡 AI stocks: Positive fundamentals, valuation-sensitive Overall hawkish score: 7/10 However, Warsh did not promise a September rate hike. He concluded that he was committed to a policy discipline, “not to a decision.” This was a hawkish bias—not an explicit rate-hike announcement. ⸻ 1

Tough day tough night. Let's move on ahead

Jackson Hole 2026: Three Warsh Scenarios—and What They Mean for AI Stocks After Nvidia’s strong earnings reinforced confidence in AI demand, the market’s attention now shifts from corporate earnings to monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote could determine whether strong AI investment is viewed as: ✅ A productivity engine that allows faster, less inflationary growth or ⚠️ An investment boom that keeps demand and inflation too strong This distinction matters because technology companies face two opposing forces: * Strong AI capex supports semiconductor, cloud and software revenue. * Higher interest rates reduce technology valuations and increase financing costs. Here are my best, base and worst-case scenarios for the speech. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT MA

Hello. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ closed up 8.74 per cent on Thursday at US$227.98, and one report called it the largest single-day gain in market value the company has ever made; $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ rose 1.37 per cent. Another headline was blunter: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was up that day because of Nvidia and nothing else. The other side of it appeared the same day: one report's headline said Nvidia is getting too big, and that this is a problem in itself. An index leaning on a single stock looks good on the way up and works the same way in reverse. The day before, it had fallen first and turned higher only on the 70 per cent growth

California’s Wildfire Bill Turns PCG and EIX Back Into High-Risk Assets One-line takeaway: Utility stocks may offer protection against the economic cycle, but they are not necessarily protected from wildfire liabilities, regulatory changes or the legal risks of a single state. The biggest individual stock moves in the U.S. market on Monday did not come from the technology sector, but from traditionally “defensive” stocks. PG&E $PG&E Corp(PCG)$ fell 20.1%; Edison International $Edison(EIX)$ dropped 23.1%; Sempra $Sempra(SRE)$ declined 3.1%. The trigger was a California wildfire bill. The final version did not in

Fed Chair - Kevin Warsh. On Fri, 28 Aug 2026 at the US central bank‘s annual economic policy symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh spoke on his 100th day as Chairman. This was a much-awaited speech as the new Fed chair has unilaterally decided to adopt a less interactive, significantly scaled-back approach to how the central bank communicates with the public and financial markets. Rather than maintaining the highly talkative, guiding role of his predecessors, Warsh has initiated a "quiet revolution" aimed at restoring mystery and removing the market's over-reliance on the central bank. He has even suggested scaling back the number of FOMC meetings to six from eight. This is still a discussion-in-progress. Jackson Hole, Wyoming Speech. At Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh us

Kevin Warsh’s inaugural appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium delivered a surprisingly hawkish stance, elevating September 2026 rate hike odds to 60% and reshaping market expectations for Q3 2026. Prior consensus favored an extended monetary pause; however, Warsh highlighted sticky core inflation and labor market tightness, warning against premature policy easing. This policy pivot induces equity valuation contraction, particularly in hyper-growth and long-duration tech sectors. Simultaneously, a sharp sector rotation is underway, favoring cash-generative value sectors (Energy, Financials, Short-Duration Value) over rate-sensitive growth assets. Fixed income and currency markets face heightened volatility: short-term Treasury yields have surged, driving a bear-flattening yield curve, wh

While the Dow logging its fifth straight monthly win demonstrates underlying resilience, holding those gains through September will be a steep uphill battle. Historically, September is the statistically weakest month of the year for equities, and the current macro backdrop amplifies that seasonal trap. Three Core Drivers Shaping the September Outlook: The Inflation & Energy Squeeze: U.S. military strikes on Iran's Larak Island sent Brent crude surging to $91.28 (+9% in August). Rising oil acts as a tax on consumers while directly feeding back into sticky inflation expectations, creating margin pressure across traditional industrials and discretionary names. Hawkish Policy Pivot: Higher energy prices reinforce Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, pushing market-implied odds o

#Warsh Just Changed the Market Regime — And Tech Is the First Casualty Warsh’s Jackson Hole message wasn’t simply “rates might go higher.” The bigger signal is that the Fed is no longer willing to treat modest disinflation as evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%. That matters because PCE is still running well above target, while the market had been positioned for easier policy. (Federal Reserve) September hike odds have jumped from roughly 35% to around 60%, while the 2-year Treasury yield immediately repriced higher. (Reuters) My read: this is most bearish for high-duration tech, less straightforward for BTC, and potentially the most complicated for gold. 1️⃣ Tech — biggest fundamental pressure QQQ is vulnerable because higher front-end yields directly increase the disco

Hello. After Warsh spoke on Friday, one estimate put the odds of a September rate rise at 60 per cent. Over the weekend US forces struck Iran and Brent crude went above US$90. Dearer oil makes inflation harder to hold down. But this particular fire is burning on the supply side, where a rate rise will not put it out and will press on demand as well. In three days, September became a harder question. This was Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole as chair. He restated the commitment to holding inflation down, and coverage rated the speech "moderately hawkish". He made clear he was not offering forward guidance; a former Fed vice chair said he had given it anyway. The market took him at his word: the two-year Treasury yield jumped, spot gold fell from US$4,649.60 last Thursday to US$4,478

No one knows for certain which stock will go up or down

asset classes with high interest-rate sensitivity get hit differently across the board: Tech (QQQ): Facing immediate headwinds from front-end rate repricing. Higher risk-free yields compress equity multiples for growth companies and raise short-term borrowing costs, keeping tech volatile until terminal rate expectations settle.

I would choose tech, but add gradually rather than chase. Warsh’s message materially changes the near-term regime. He explicitly said 2% PCE is a “firm, fixed target”, financial conditions are not broadly restrictive, labour markets are consistent with full employment, and inflation progress has been modest. Markets now price roughly a 60% probability of a September hike, while Barclays has shifted to expecting September and December hikes.  My ranking would be Tech > Gold > BTC for the next several months. Tech faces valuation compression from higher yields, but AI capex and earnings growth provide a fundamental earnings anchor. Gold remains attractive structurally, but after its enormous run, a stronger dollar and rising real yields could force further consolidation. Bitcoin i

Warsh’s Jackson Hole Verdict: Hawkish on Rates, Bullish on AI Growth Warsh’s speech was hawkish on interest rates, but constructive on economic growth and AI demand. Relative to my earlier best/base/worst-case framework, the outcome landed between the base and worst cases—closer to worst for rates, but more constructive for AI growth. 🔴 Inflation: Hawkish 🔴 Labour: Strong enough to tolerate tighter policy 🔴 Financial conditions: Not restrictive 🟢 Economic growth: Resilient 🟢 AI investment: Structurally strong 🟡 AI stocks: Positive fundamentals, valuation-sensitive Overall hawkish score: 7/10 However, Warsh did not promise a September rate hike. He concluded that he was committed to a policy discipline, “not to a decision.” This was a hawkish bias—not an explicit rate-hike announcement. ⸻ 1

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. So what a typhoon week, with NVDA earnings announcement and Warsh first press conference outside of fed rate announcement. Still adoping a conservative and dodging approach when it comes to forward guidance and future predictions. Market clearly did not like the speech, turning red right after his speech ended. With so much conflict and turmoil happening in the world right now, I definitely empathize with him as it is definitely as challenging as ever to navigate these choppy waters. And as you can see in the last article, social security funding in US is depleting at a rapid rate, which puts further pressure on the shoulders of younger generatio

Avoid chasing the initial dip in rate-sensitive tech (QQQ). Gold offers the cleanest risk-reward on tactical pullbacks as a hedge against stubborn stagflation risks, while Bitcoin remains best played on confirmed support levels once rate-hike expectations fully settle.

Jackson Hole 2026: Three Warsh Scenarios—and What They Mean for AI Stocks After Nvidia’s strong earnings reinforced confidence in AI demand, the market’s attention now shifts from corporate earnings to monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote could determine whether strong AI investment is viewed as: ✅ A productivity engine that allows faster, less inflationary growth or ⚠️ An investment boom that keeps demand and inflation too strong This distinction matters because technology companies face two opposing forces: * Strong AI capex supports semiconductor, cloud and software revenue. * Higher interest rates reduce technology valuations and increase financing costs. Here are my best, base and worst-case scenarios for the speech. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT MA

Don't fight a Fed Chair determined to prove his inflation-fighting credentials. Tactical defense via cash/gold allocation beats trying to catch falling tech knives while rate hikes are back on the table.

The market is telling you: the short term risk of raising interest rates on reprice but not buying on the long term – investors believe that Wash will eventually bring inflation down and are reluctant to push up term premiums. This yield curve flattening signal is one of the most alarming macro cracks in the second half of 2026.

Hello. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ closed up 8.74 per cent on Thursday at US$227.98, and one report called it the largest single-day gain in market value the company has ever made; $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ rose 1.37 per cent. Another headline was blunter: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was up that day because of Nvidia and nothing else. The other side of it appeared the same day: one report's headline said Nvidia is getting too big, and that this is a problem in itself. An index leaning on a single stock looks good on the way up and works the same way in reverse. The day before, it had fallen first and turned higher only on the 70 per cent growth

A stronger dollar is collateral damage. The ECB is also hawking, but the Bank of England is sitting still and the Bank of Japan is still on the loose edge – the relative strength of the dollar will neutralise emerging markets and commodities

If the Fed raises rates in September, this will be the first time since 2022, two months before elections that it has tightened policy

Morgan Stanley's chief US economist Michael Gapen argues that "inflation is slowing down" should be enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines in September.

Hello. US markets barely moved during Wednesday's session — $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.02 per cent and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ rose 0.09 per cent, with everyone waiting on one set of results after the close. They arrived, and the numbers were better than anyone had expected. Record revenue of US$96.221 billion, up 106 per cent year on year, with data centre revenue up 117 per cent; consensus was about US$92.38 billion, so revenue came in about 4 per cent ahead, and adjusted earnings per share was US$2.22 against US$2.09 expected, about 6.22 per cent ahead. Guidance for the current quarter is about US$108 billion, and revenue in financial year 2028 is expected to grow about 70 per