[Events] $315M Bets on AI. Tech Leaders Say Slow Down. What’s Your Trade?
Last Friday, traders spotted a group of unusually large bullish AI options trades. The trades focused on $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , $Intel(INTC)$ , $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ , $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ , $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ , $SK hynix(SKHY)$ and a $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ .
Together, they covered almost the full AI infrastructure chain: chips, memory, computing power, data centers and electricity. The total premium paid was around $315 million, with about $1.1 billion in delta exposure.
Soon, traders started asking the same question: Was Leopold Aschenbrenner behind the trade?
Leopold is a former OpenAI researcher and now runs the AI-focused fund Situational Awareness.
Earlier this year, his fund was hit hard during the AI selloff and reportedly had to cut leveraged positions.That is why this new options flow got so much attention. Many of the stocks involved were also linked to his previous AI positions.
The buyer cannot be confirmed from the options trades alone, but CNBC later reported that Situational Awareness had returned to the market and rebuilt exposure to names including AMD, Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, SK Hynix, SanDisk and DRAM-related trades.
Then AI leaders started warning about risks
But over the weekend, the mood changed.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for the industry to slow down the development of advanced AI models.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk also raised concerns about AI risk, safety and how fast the technology is moving.
Suddenly, investors were looking at two very different signals. On one side: Big money was betting on AI.On the other: Some of the biggest names in AI were telling the industry to slow down.
AI stocks then sold off sharply. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell 3.4%, $Micron Technology(MU)$ dropped more than 5%, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ fell more than 4%, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ lost more than 4%, and $Intel(INTC)$ dropped 5.59%.
Trump took the other side
President Donald Trump then joined the debate. He pushed back against stronger AI regulation and said:
“Don’t kill the Golden Goose!”
His view is simple:If the U.S. slows AI development too much, it could lose its lead in the global AI race.
So right now, the market is getting three very different signals: Money is still betting on AI. AI leaders are warning about risks. Trump wants the U.S. to keep moving fast.
Triple Witching is coming this Friday
There is one more reason this week could be volatile. This Friday is Triple Witching.
Stock options, index options and index futures will all expire around the same time.That usually brings more trading, more hedging and bigger position changes.
AI stocks are already some of the most active names in the options market.So even if those large AI trades do not expire this week, Triple Witching could still make short-term moves bigger in names like AMD, CRWV, BE and memory stocks.
So what would you do?
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A. Follow the money A $315 million options bet suggests big investors still believe the AI infrastructure cycle has further to run.
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B. Listen to the AI leaders If the people building the technology are warning about risk, maybe the trade has become too crowded.
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C. Stay bullish, but only on infrastructure AI models may slow, but chips, memory, power and data centers still need massive investment.
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D. Wait until after Triple Witching With positioning and hedging flows in play, it may be better to let the volatility settle first.
Drop A, B, C or D below and tell us why for a chance to win Tiger Coins.
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I would not blindly follow the $315 million options trade either. Even if Leopold is behind it, large funds have different risk tolerance and strategies from retail investors. I see the trade as a useful signal, but not a reason to chase AI stocks after a sharp move.
With Triple Witching this Friday, I would expect more short-term volatility. I would rather use any excessive pullback to gradually DCA into strong AI infrastructure names than try to predict every move. For me, the long-term AI story remains intact, but entry price and position sizing still matter.
@小虎福利站 @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_comments @TigerEvents
AI models may face more scrutiny, but the demand for chips, memory, power, networking and data centers doesn’t disappear overnight. With Triple Witching potentially amplifying short-term volatility, I’d focus more on CAPEX, orders and earnings guidance than one week of options flows.
The key question: Are AI infrastructure budgets still rising? 👀
I think C is the best choice.
AI models may slow down because of safety concerns, but AI still needs:
Chips: AMD, NVIDIA
Memory: SK hynix, SanDisk, Micron
Data centers: CoreWeave
Power: Bloom Energy
Even if new AI models develop more slowly, existing AI systems still need huge amounts of computing power, memory, data centers and electricity.
The $315 million options trade is a positive signal, but I would not blindly follow it. We don't know the full strategy behind those trades.
What I would do
Long term: Stay bullish on AI infrastructure.
Short term: Be careful. Triple Witching and high valuations can create big price swings.
I would rather buy strong companies during pullbacks than chase stocks after a big rise.
Bottom line:
AI development may slow, but AI infrastructure still has a long-term growth story.
The most interesting part of the $315 million options flow isn’t any single stock. It’s the breadth: AMD, memory, data centers and power together suggest investors are betting on the physical bottlenecks behind AI, not simply on the next hot model.
AI leaders warning about safety and regulation deserves attention, but even a slower pace of model development could still require enormous computing power. The bigger risk, in my view, is valuation and crowded positioning.
With Triple Witching approaching, short-term volatility could become exaggerated. I wouldn’t chase Friday’s moves. I’d use weakness to selectively accumulate companies with real revenue, improving cash flow and strong AI demand visibility.
Models can slow. The infrastructure buildout is much harder to stop.
@TigerEvents [财迷]
原因是现在市场把“AI模型开发可能放缓”和“AI基础设施需求见顶”混在了一起，但这两件事并不完全等价。
就算前沿模型训练节奏放慢，推理、存储、数据中心、电力和网络这些需求未必同步下降，甚至可能因为AI开始大规模商业化而继续增长。
所以我觉得真正值得看的，不是谁喊得最响，而是资本开支有没有真的下修。
如果微软、谷歌、Meta、Amazon这些Hyperscaler未来几个季度仍然维持高CapEx，那么AMD、HBM、数据中心、电力这条链的基本面逻辑就还没有被证伪。
但我也不会因为那3.15亿美元期权流就盲目跟单。
大额Call最多只能说明有人愿意押方向，不能证明他们一定看对，更不能证明这些仓位适合普通投资者复制。
我会更关注三个验证点：
第一，Hyperscaler CapEx有没有下调；
第二，HBM和算力订单有没有真正放缓；
第三，AI基础设施公司的自由现金流能不能开始改善。
如果这三项都还强，那“AI减速”更像是叙事扰动，而不是产业反转。
所以我选C，但核心不是“AI永远涨”，而是：
模型叙事可以降温，基础设施现金流必须继续兑现。
原因是现在市场把“AI模型开发可能放缓”和“AI基础设施需求见顶”混在了一起，但这两件事并不完全等价。
就算前沿模型训练节奏放慢，推理、存储、数据中心、电力和网络这些需求未必同步下降，甚至可能因为AI开始大规模商业化而继续增长。
所以我觉得真正值得看的，不是谁喊得最响，而是资本开支有没有真的下修。
如果微软、谷歌、Meta、Amazon这些Hyperscaler未来几个季度仍然维持高CapEx，那么AMD、HBM、数据中心、电力这条链的基本面逻辑就还没有被证伪。
但我也不会因为那3.15亿美元期权流就盲目跟单。
大额Call最多只能说明有人愿意押方向，不能证明他们一定看对，更不能证明这些仓位适合普通投资者复制。
我会更关注三个验证点：
第一，Hyperscaler CapEx有没有下调；
第二，HBM和算力订单有没有真正放缓；
第三，AI基础设施公司的自由现金流能不能开始改善。
如果这三项都还强，那“AI减速”更像是叙事扰动，而不是产业反转。
所以我选C，但核心不是“AI永远涨”，而是：
模型叙事可以降温，基础设施现金流必须继续兑现。