Big Tech Earnings! Can Tesla Beat & Transform from “Cars” to “Chips"?
With $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ extending to an 11-day winning streak and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ breaking above 7,000 for the first time, the U.S. market has entered the most critical validation window after a V-shaped rebound — Big Tech earnings season.
Six of “Magnificent Seven” will report in late April. The market’s focus next week is on the hardest-to-price name: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ .
Wall Street Is More Bullish Than Ever on This Earnings Season
This time, Wall Street is genuinely bullish, not just politely optimistic.
Deutsche Bank expects S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth of 19%, the fastest in four years, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Even more unusually, analysts are already forecasting strong growth before earnings season begins — historically rare, as expectations are usually set low first
The core driver remains AI. According to Goldman Sachs:
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AI-related megacaps are expected to contribute over 60% of S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth
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NVIDIA alone contributes 3.3 percentage points, and Micron 2.7 points — together accounting for over 50% of total EPS growth
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The Information Technology sector is expected to deliver 44% EPS growth, contributing 87% of overall S&P 500 EPS growth
The Main Event: How Will Tesla Play This Hand?
📊 Wall Street Baseline Expectations
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Q1 revenue: $21.92B (+13% YoY)
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Adjusted EPS: $0.36 (+33% YoY)
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Auto gross margin: ~16% (vs. 15% last year)
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Energy revenue: $3.39B (+24% YoY), with 8.8 GWh storage deployments
The Real Focus: Can the Transformation Story Show Progress?
For this earnings report, the market is not focused on a few basis points of margin — the real question is:
👉 Has Tesla’s transformation story entered the execution phase?
Key Catalysts to Watch
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FSD milestone: Morgan Stanley expects total FSD miles to soon exceed 10 billion miles, a key data flywheel moment
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Robotaxi timeline: The commercialization timeline remains the biggest valuation debate
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AI5 chip: A newly emerging variable
This week, Elon Musk announced that Tesla has completed tape-out of its AI5 chip, a key milestone before mass production.
More importantly, Tesla’s “chip strategy” is expanding beyond internal automotive use:
It is working with SpaceX on the Terafab mega-chip project, targeting annual production equivalent to 1 terawatt of compute power.
👉 If Terafab becomes reality, Tesla’s role in AI will fundamentally shift —
from a consumer of compute to a producer of compute.
In a world where $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ supply remains constrained, the upside narrative here could be enormous.
Tesla plans $20 billion in capex this year, nearly 2.4x last year’s $8.5 billion — a major cost that the market will have to digest.
Discussion: How Do You Read This Earnings Season?
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Do you think Tesla will beat expectations this time?
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Among the Magnificent Seven, which company are you most bullish on?
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Can the S&P 500 really achieve — and beat — 19% EPS growth this quarter?
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Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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Among the magnificent seven, I remain the most bullish on Apple. The iPhones remain popular and demand remains hot in its biggest market ie the Chinese market. The Chinese consumers are willing to pay for the phone. Also, I expect it’s venture into better wearables to pay off.
I think a 19% EPS growth for the S&P might be a little hard to pull off. This is insanely bullish. This quarter is affected by the war, concerns of inflation as well as a consequently hawkish Fed which has not promised a rate cut. I expect consumers to be more prudent with their money. However, institutions might still be ‘forced’ to spend for their AI investments and growth is expected there.
Tesla has rebounded above USD 400 yet analysts remain split. The deciding factor will be whether Tesla can show credible improvement in FSD and Optimus, not just car sales.
A exciting development is Tesla's AI Chip story - next gen AI5. Elon Musk said that the next milestone would be the design and sending it to the foundries for fabrication.
AI5 is optimised for Robotaxi and Optimus inference, while the broader Terafab project with Intel and SpaceX aims to build a vertically integrated AI Chip complex for Robotics and data centers.
Tesla is no longer just a car company. It has shifted to AI compute & Robotics platform. For that reason Tesla is a great stock to buy & hold long term.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG
For $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , the numbers matter less than the narrative. Margins and deliveries are known — the focus is whether it can prove its shift toward AI and autonomy. The AI5 chip and Terafab angle are key; if Tesla is seen as a future compute player, the valuation could change. A beat helps, but reducing long-term uncertainty matters more.
I’m still most bullish on AI infrastructure names where demand is clear. Tesla, though, is the key wildcard — its upside isn’t fully priced in. If this call shows real progress, it could rerate quickly; if not, even good results may fall short.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub
Most bullish: NVIDIA
Clear AI leader with pricing power and strongest demand visibility.
Second: Microsoft for stable AI monetisation.
S&P 500 EPS (19%): S&P 500 can hit it, but it’s narrow. Growth is driven by a few mega-cap AI names. If 1–2 disappoint, the number collapses.
Positioning:
Trim into strength. Add only after confirmation, not hype.
Exceeding "19%" EPS growth for the S&P 500 this quarter is highly improbable. Current consensus estimates sit closer to "11% to 13%". While the tech giants are performing well, the broader "493" stocks are struggling with high interest rates and cautious consumer spending. Achieving a 19% hurdle would require an unprecedented earnings explosion in lagging sectors like energy and materials that the data does not currently support.
NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the strongest conviction play. Unlike Tesla, which faces cyclical headwinds, NVIDIA continues to convert AI infrastructure demand into record-breaking cash flow. Its "Blackwell" chip cycle and near-monopoly in data center GPUs provide a level of fundamental growth that exceeds its peers, making it the most resilient and high-performing member of the group.
Tesla is unlikely to deliver a significant beat this quarter. Market sentiment remains bearish as analysts have slashed EPS estimates to "0.223" amid cooling EV demand and intense price competition. Unless the company provides a transformative update on "Robotaxi" monetization or "FSD" licensing, the core automotive margins are expected to remain under pressure, making an earnings surprise difficult to achieve.
2. Within the MAGA seven I am most bullish on Microsoft
3. S&P 500 is likely to fall this year with negative eps
AI-related megacaps are expected to contribute over 60% of S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth
NVIDIA alone contributes 3.3 percentage points, and Micron 2.7 points — together accounting for over 50% of total EPS growth
The Information Technology sector is expected to deliver 44% EPS growth, contributing 87% of overall S&P 500 EPS growth