To The Moon

Q4 revenue hit $770 million, far exceeding market expectations of $740 million; adjusted EBITDA soared 412% YoY. Following the release of the earnings report, $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ surged nearly 35%! Against the backdrop of overall volatility in the crypto market, this report acted like a "shot of adrenaline," with many even believing that today's Bitcoin rise was driven by Circle.

1. Stellar earnings data proves the 30% surge!

In a market where SaaS is generally being shorted, Circle's subscription revenue is instead growing significantly. It’s not that the subscription model no longer works, but whether your service meets the needs of the new era.

• Revenue: Q4 recorded $770 million, up 77% YoY. Total annual revenue reached $2.75 billion.

• USDC Circulation: Reached $75.3 billion, up 72% YoY; On-chain Volume reached $11.9 trillion in Q4 alone, up 247% YoY.

This figure crushes doubts that Circle would collapse during a Fed rate-cutting cycle. While Fed rate cuts do affect Circle's yield per asset, the surge in USDC circulation has offset the impact of declining yields.

• Profitability (EPS & EBITDA): EPS was $0.43 (market expectation was only $0.16), exceeding expectations by 168%. Adjusted EBITDA recorded $167 million, with a profit margin as high as 54%.

2. Circle's "Google Moment"? New growth story solves market concerns!

In addition to the key figures above, the earnings report also provided a strong response to various past doubts. Circle is transforming from being highly dependent on interest spread income to becoming a more versatile infrastructure, growing from a heavy reliance on distribution platforms like Coinbase to achieving independent and autonomous growth.

If Arc is a "highway" (underlying blockchain) built by Circle, then Circle Payments Network (CPN) is the "toll station, entrance/exit, and logistics center" on that road. Simply put, CPN is a set of payment infrastructure (API-driven) provided by Circle that integrates the traditional banking system with blockchain technology. Its core mission is to solve a century-old puzzle: how to make "fiat in banks" and "digital currency on-chain" convert and complete payments seamlessly.

Top-tier stablecoin issuers all want to build their own "highways." Circle has Arc; Tether also has Stable and Plasma. Only by mastering the underlying Layer 1 can one achieve autonomous gas fees (paying directly with USDC), fully controllable compliance, and absolute sovereignty over asset settlement.

The ceiling for Circle's valuation has been opened. Considering the liquidity from the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, the imminent passage of the Clarity Act, the popularity of the Polymarket prediction market brought by the World Cup, and Meta restarting its stablecoin business... the current stock price is just the starting point. Circle's future is "the stars and the sea."

1. In the future, will stablecoins drift further away from cryptocurrencies, or will they continue to drive cryptocurrencies upward?

2. Can we still chase the rally after Circle's surge? Or take profits now?

3. After BTC's recent rebound, will there be a larger decline or continued bottoming?

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