Can MU Sustain the Rally? Too Late To Bet on Memory Stocks?
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ opened higher on Micron’s explosive earnings report, but quickly gave back some gains, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday. $Micron Technology(MU)$ itself jumped as much as 16% at the open before settling around +13%. Regardless, Micron was clearly the standout performer of the session.
Micron delivered a clean beat: revenue, profits, cash flow, and profitability all exceeded expectations.
EPS: $4.78; Revenue: $13.64B, up 57% year-over-year.
Q2 outlook: EPS: $8.42; Revenue: $18.7B — record highs
Growth driven by AI-led demand for memory and storage
Net income came in at $5.48B, up 58% quarter-over-quarter and 135% year-over-year.
Gross margin surged to 56%, a 12 percentage point jump QoQ, far above the market’s 51% expectation.
Looking ahead, Micron guided next-quarter revenue to $18.3B–$19.1B, versus consensus of just $14.4B. Adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $8.22–$8.62, nearly 80% above the market’s $4.71 estimate.
Even more striking, Micron expects forward 12-month EPS to reach $23.63, compared with $7.73 over the past 12 months — a near 3x increase.
Most importantly, cash flow is now running well above net income, a critical signal of earnings quality. Taken together, these hard numbers strongly suggest that Micron may be one of the least “bubble-like” AI earnings stories in the market.
Is this breaking the AI bubble narrative and ushering in Micron’s “Nvidia moment”?
On the earnings call, management repeatedly emphasized that the memory industry is facing a severe and persistent supply–demand imbalance, with no near-term solution. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated plainly:
“We believe that, for the foreseeable future, total industry supply will remain well below demand.”
He expects the tight supply environment to persist through 2026 and beyond. During the Q&A, he added a quantitative detail:
“Over the medium term, we can only meet about 50% to two-thirds of demand for certain key customers.”
Just days ago, Micron formally notified partners that starting January 1, 2026, order modification lead times will be extended from 30 days to 90 days. More importantly, any orders scheduled for delivery in 2026 will be treated as non-cancelable, non-price-adjustable, and non-reschedulable by default.
In simple terms: from next year onward, changing orders will be nearly impossible. So the big questions remain:
Is this the “Nvidia moment” for Micron — or for the memory sector as a whole? $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
How long can this supply–demand imbalance really last?
And is it already too late to get on board memory stocks now?
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这是美光的“英伟达时刻”吗？这不是一个完美的相似之处，但这种比较越来越有效。当人工智能需求被证明是结构性的时，英伟达重新评级，美光可能也接近类似的点。管理层关于仅满足50-66%的需求并锁定不可取消的2026年订单的评论表明了真正的稀缺和定价能力。
也就是说，这并非没有风险，或者显然“为时已晚”。估值已经发生变化，但如果供应仍然紧张，盈利预期可能仍然保守。对我来说，关键是市场是否不再将内存视为周期性，并开始将其视为核心人工智能基础设施——如果是这样，美光的上涨空间可能会超出一个季度。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Micron did not just beat expectations, it shattered them. With Q1 26 revenue at USD 13.64 billion vs USD 12.83 billion expected & EPS of USD 4.78 vs USD 3.95 forecasted, Micron proved that it is not just riding the AI wave. It is steering it. Its Q2 guidance of USD 18.7 billion far exceeded expectations, and sent shockwaves through Wall Street, igniting fresh optimism.
Micron did not just deliver earnings, it delivered momentum, meaning and market magic. In a week where doubt lingered, Micron became the standout performer!
The bears had their moments but Micron reminded us that Bulls run faster when fueled by innovation.
The Santa Rally is truly back on track for a stunning finish to 2025!
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
EPS：$4.78;收入：$13.64 B，上涨同比57%.
第二季度展望：每股收益：$8.42;收入：$18.7 B-历史新高
人工智能主导的内存和存储需求推动增长
净利润为$54.8亿，向上环比增长58%和同比135%.
毛利率激增至56%，一个环比跃升12个百分点，远高于市场51%的预期。
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
Is this the “Nvidia moment” for Micron — or for the memory sector as a whole? $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
How long can this supply–demand imbalance really last?
And is it already too late to get on board memory stocks now?
some predict the supply-demand imbalance is expected to last until at least 2027, and despite recent stock appreciation, analysts still see upside potential, though caution is warranted due to valuation concerns and market cyclicality.
Like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), MU is riding the AI surge, but it lacks a monopoly and must battle memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix for market share
The supply-demand imbalance remains tight as AI memory uses triple the typical wafer capacity, but prices may stabilize as new supply enters the market in the coming years
It is not too late to get on board memory stocks for those bullish on the long-term AI supercycle; investment in MU remains viable, though long-term prospects depend on navigating volatility, geopolitical risks, and intense competition, which could dampen growth projections
While the memory sector remains a high-growth AI play, assessing entry points is essential due to rising prices and market volatility
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@Huat99
@Snowwhite
Not quite. Nvidia benefitted from platform dominance and software lock-in. Micron and peers are riding a structural upcycle driven by AI servers needing far more DRAM and HBM per rack. The gains are broad across the memory sector rather than company-specific.
How long can the imbalance last?
Likely 2 to 3 years. HBM capacity is tight, capex remains disciplined after prior busts, and AI demand keeps rising. Supply will expand, but not fast enough to quickly normalise pricing.
Is it too late?
Late for easy upside, not late for returns. Much optimism is priced in, so upside depends on sustained pricing power rather than multiple expansion. Risk is cyclical reversal once capacity catches up.
Bottom line: this is a durable but cyclical memory supercycle. Still investable with a medium-term horizon, but timing, sizing, and volatility tolerance matter more than chasing momentum.
AI、数据中心和高带宽内存（HBM）等领域需求爆发，这些产品是美光的重要增长驱动力。
未来存储芯片供给紧张可能持续推动价格和利润率。
Either way, the players who had good fundamentals and were in the market from the get go, would likely be able to properly cash in on the AI hype.
Whether they will survive the bubble popping would be their long term planning and proper due diligence of who they are in business with.
2.目前对存储器需求的预测表明，2026年上半年供应紧张。虽然这种情况可能会持续到2026年和2027年。
3此供需失衡乃由于计划于2026年及2027年部署的新数据中心的内存订单所致。进一步的数据中心需求对未来的性能至关重要$美光科技(MU)$