Can MU Sustain the Rally? Too Late To Bet on Memory Stocks?
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ opened higher on Micron’s explosive earnings report, but quickly gave back some gains, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday. $Micron Technology(MU)$ itself jumped as much as 16% at the open before settling around +13%. Regardless, Micron was clearly the standout performer of the session.
Micron delivered a clean beat: revenue, profits, cash flow, and profitability all exceeded expectations.
EPS: $4.78; Revenue: $13.64B, up 57% year-over-year.
Q2 outlook: EPS: $8.42; Revenue: $18.7B — record highs
Growth driven by AI-led demand for memory and storage
Net income came in at $5.48B, up 58% quarter-over-quarter and 135% year-over-year.
Gross margin surged to 56%, a 12 percentage point jump QoQ, far above the market’s 51% expectation.
Looking ahead, Micron guided next-quarter revenue to $18.3B–$19.1B, versus consensus of just $14.4B. Adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $8.22–$8.62, nearly 80% above the market’s $4.71 estimate.
Even more striking, Micron expects forward 12-month EPS to reach $23.63, compared with $7.73 over the past 12 months — a near 3x increase.
Most importantly, cash flow is now running well above net income, a critical signal of earnings quality. Taken together, these hard numbers strongly suggest that Micron may be one of the least “bubble-like” AI earnings stories in the market.
Is this breaking the AI bubble narrative and ushering in Micron’s “Nvidia moment”?
On the earnings call, management repeatedly emphasized that the memory industry is facing a severe and persistent supply–demand imbalance, with no near-term solution. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated plainly:
“We believe that, for the foreseeable future, total industry supply will remain well below demand.”
He expects the tight supply environment to persist through 2026 and beyond. During the Q&A, he added a quantitative detail:
“Over the medium term, we can only meet about 50% to two-thirds of demand for certain key customers.”
Just days ago, Micron formally notified partners that starting January 1, 2026, order modification lead times will be extended from 30 days to 90 days. More importantly, any orders scheduled for delivery in 2026 will be treated as non-cancelable, non-price-adjustable, and non-reschedulable by default.
In simple terms: from next year onward, changing orders will be nearly impossible. So the big questions remain:
Is this the “Nvidia moment” for Micron — or for the memory sector as a whole? $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
How long can this supply–demand imbalance really last?
And is it already too late to get on board memory stocks now?
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Is this Micron’s “Nvidia moment”? Not a perfect parallel, but the comparison is increasingly valid. Nvidia re-rated when AI demand proved structural, and Micron may be nearing a similar point. Management’s comments about meeting only 50–66% of demand and locking in non-cancelable 2026 orders signal real scarcity and pricing power.
That said, it’s not risk-free or clearly “too late.” Valuations have moved, but earnings expectations may still be conservative if supply remains tight. For me, the key is whether the market stops viewing memory as cyclical and starts valuing it as core AI infrastructure — if so, Micron’s upside could extend beyond a single quarter.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Micron did not just beat expectations, it shattered them. With Q1 26 revenue at USD 13.64 billion vs USD 12.83 billion expected & EPS of USD 4.78 vs USD 3.95 forecasted, Micron proved that it is not just riding the AI wave. It is steering it. Its Q2 guidance of USD 18.7 billion far exceeded expectations, and sent shockwaves through Wall Street, igniting fresh optimism.
Micron did not just deliver earnings, it delivered momentum, meaning and market magic. In a week where doubt lingered, Micron became the standout performer!
The bears had their moments but Micron reminded us that Bulls run faster when fueled by innovation.
The Santa Rally is truly back on track for a stunning finish to 2025!
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
EPS：$4.78;收入：$13.64 B，上涨同比57%.
第二季度展望：每股收益：$8.42;收入：$18.7 B-历史新高
人工智能主导的内存和存储需求推动增长
净利润为$54.8亿，向上环比增长58%和同比135%.
毛利率激增至56%，一个环比跃升12个百分点，远高于市场51%的预期。
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
Is this the “Nvidia moment” for Micron — or for the memory sector as a whole? $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
How long can this supply–demand imbalance really last?
And is it already too late to get on board memory stocks now?
some predict the supply-demand imbalance is expected to last until at least 2027, and despite recent stock appreciation, analysts still see upside potential, though caution is warranted due to valuation concerns and market cyclicality.
Like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), MU is riding the AI surge, but it lacks a monopoly and must battle memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix for market share
The supply-demand imbalance remains tight as AI memory uses triple the typical wafer capacity, but prices may stabilize as new supply enters the market in the coming years
It is not too late to get on board memory stocks for those bullish on the long-term AI supercycle; investment in MU remains viable, though long-term prospects depend on navigating volatility, geopolitical risks, and intense competition, which could dampen growth projections
While the memory sector remains a high-growth AI play, assessing entry points is essential due to rising prices and market volatility
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@Snowwhite
不完全是。英伟达受益于平台主导地位和软件锁定。美光和同行正在经历由人工智能服务器驱动的结构性升级周期，每个机架需要更多的DRAM和HBM。这些收益是整个内存行业的广泛收益，而不是特定于公司的收益。
失衡能持续多久？
可能2到3年。HBM产能紧张，资本支出在之前的萧条之后仍然严格，人工智能需求持续上升。供应将会扩大，但速度不足以迅速使定价正常化。
是不是太晚了？
轻松上涨为时已晚，回报却不晚。许多乐观情绪已被消化，因此上涨取决于持续的定价能力，而不是多次扩张。一旦产能赶上，风险就是周期性反转。
一句话：这是一个持久但循环的内存超级周期。中期仍可投资，但时机、规模和波动性容忍度比追逐势头更重要。
AI、数据中心和高带宽内存（HBM）等领域需求爆发，这些产品是美光的重要增长驱动力。
未来存储芯片供给紧张可能持续推动价格和利润率。
Either way, the players who had good fundamentals and were in the market from the get go, would likely be able to properly cash in on the AI hype.
Whether they will survive the bubble popping would be their long term planning and proper due diligence of who they are in business with.
2.current forecasts for memory demand indicate tight supply for first half of 2026. While it is possible that this could continue throughout 2026 and into 2027.
3 this supply demand imbalance is due to orders for memory for new data centres which are planned for deployment over 2026 and 2027. Further data centre demand is critical to future performance of $Micron Technology(MU)$