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The Nasdaq closed lower but the S&P 500 and the Dow eked out late-session gains on Friday(Nov 7) as investors turned the page on a roller-coaster week with economic worries, the longest-ever federal government shutdown, and sky-high tech stock valuations dampening risk appetite.
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For hedging, I’ve also held selective SPY and QQQ puts with two- to three-week expiries, mainly to offset potential drawdowns from overextended tech valuations. These puts act more as tactical insurance rather than a bearish conviction.
Broadly speaking, I remain moderately bullish into year-end. Liquidity remains abundant, central banks are still cautious about tightening further, and AI-driven revenue expansion continues to impress. However, I expect intermittent profit-taking, especially after strong quarterly results, so I’m keeping position sizes modest and rolling profits quickly rather than chasing rallies.
For hedging, I’ve also held selective SPY and QQQ puts with two- to three-week expiries, mainly to offset potential drawdowns from overextended tech valuations. These puts act more as tactical insurance rather than a bearish conviction.
Broadly speaking, I remain moderately bullish into year-end. Liquidity remains abundant, central banks are still cautious about tightening further, and AI-driven revenue expansion continues to impress. However, I expect intermittent profit-taking, especially after strong quarterly results, so I’m keeping position sizes modest and rolling profits quickly rather than chasing rallies.
不过，若业绩仍处于“投入期”，市场可能会先反应冷淡。毕竟，今年投资者更看重现金流和利润，而不是故事。我的看法是——CRCL的长期逻辑没问题，但短期波动会大。如果电话会议中提到新的金融合作伙伴或区块链整合方案，那将是我考虑加仓的信号。