How Do We Hedge Against AI Bubble Pop?
Everyone’s talking about “the mother of all bubbles”… but few are talking about how to hedge it — without missing the final leg of the rally.
You want to stay in for the bubble gains (who doesn’t?), but a smart investor knows to keep an escape pod ready. So how do you do it?
1️⃣ Classic hedge: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ puts. The simplest play — long puts on market indexes like S&P 500. Tech-heavy exposure means you’re covered if the AI euphoria cracks. Costly, yes, but straightforward.
2️⃣ Volatility bets: $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ calls. When panic hits, volatility spikes. VIX calls can explode in value during a crash — and they’re often cheaper than index options. The trick? Timing. VIX peaks hard, then fades fast. You’ve got to be ready to take profits early.
3️⃣ $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ with caution. Gold’s been on fire — maybe too much. In real crises, it often dips first (liquidity crunch, margin calls), then rallies months later. The smart move might be waiting to pick up gold futures after the first selloff, not before.
4️⃣ Macro-specific hedges. Every crash has a trigger.
If you think the Yen carry trade snaps — go long Yen options.
Trade tensions? Calls on rare earths or MP Materials.
Fed panic mode after a market crash? Bond calls might shine.
5️⃣ The “real world” hedge. “Having a stable job is your best hedge.” Fair point… but in 2025’s market? Even that’s not guaranteed.
The TL;DR version:
👉 SPY puts + VIX calls = quick crash hedge.
👉 Wait for gold after the dust settles.
👉 Layer macro plays based on the most likely Black Swan.
Are you hedging your AI longs, or riding it to the moon? 🚀💣
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在最初的冲击之后，随着流动性合约和风险资产的紧缩，黄金和长期国债等避险资产通常会跑赢大盘。一旦VIX正常化，逐渐积累。与此同时，在人工智能综合体中分散投资——从高贝塔值芯片制造商转向基础设施或数据中心房地产投资信托基金，并保持一些现金缓冲以部署调整后。
归根结底，对冲是关于平衡的：为你不能承受损失的东西投保，但不要让恐惧抹去长期的上涨空间。你现在是防守型的吗——还是有足够的信心再坚持一会儿？
第一种方式，我会考虑用SPY看跌期权作为保险。它的逻辑很直接——AI权重在标普500占比高，一旦AI情绪转冷，整个指数都会被拖下水。虽然期权成本不低，但能在大跌时迅速放大防守效果。关键是控制仓位，别让对冲反而吃掉主仓收益。
第二，我会留意VIX相关产品。波动率在市场崩盘时几乎是唯一同步上涨的资产，但节奏要拿捏得准。通常VIX冲高后会快速回落，因此我倾向于短线布局、快速止盈，而不是长期持有。
第三个防线是黄金。虽然很多人视它为避险首选，但我更倾向于“危机后买入”。因为在市场初期暴跌时，黄金往往也被迫卖出换现金。等到流动性恢复、资金重回安全资产时，它才会真正起飞。
最后，我会做一些宏观对冲作为补充，比如轻仓做多日元或美债，防范全球风险蔓延。总体而言，我宁愿小幅牺牲部分收益，也要确保在泡沫破裂时有底气不慌乱。对冲，其实是为下一次反弹储备子弹。
The main fears are in macro factors like trade tensions and potential recession. If recession doesn’t happen and the fed continues to cut rates, the AI stocks will continue to rally. I don’t think the yen carry trade will snap anytime soon too, given the dependence of Japan on US. For now, considerin the above, I would continue to hold my stocks till early next year before assessing again. I might take some profit at year end when I evaluate my portfolio for my assignments and making sure my risk is still well-managed and no single market or sector has a disproportionately large exposure.
2️⃣波動率押注：$芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(VIX)$評級.當恐慌襲來時，波動性會飆升。VIX評級的價值可能會在崩盤期間爆炸式增長，而且它們通常比指數期權便宜。訣竅？定時。VIX高峯強勁，然後迅速消退。你必須做好儘早獲利了結的準備。
如果你認爲日元套利交易快照-做多日元期權。
貿易緊張局勢？稀土或MP材料的評級。
美聯儲恐慌模式市場崩盤後？邦德·評級可能會大放異彩。
5️⃣“真實世界”對衝。“有一份穩定的工作是你最好的對衝。”說得好……但是在2025年的市場上呢？即使這樣也不能保證。
我会考虑重新平衡到受人工智能炒作影响较小的行业。其中包括医疗保健、工业、必需消费品或股息贵族。
例如ETF，例如 $消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品(XLP)$ $健康照护类股ETF-SPDR(XLV)$ 和 $Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$.
我还会关注情绪变化，监控内幕抛售、盈利下滑和监管阻力。
如果人工智能叙事从变革性转向过度炒作，也许是时候修剪了。
最终，保持敏捷和谨慎以对冲人工智能泡沫破裂非常重要。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
China restricting rare earths, gold.
Crypto crash, gold.
Gold never seems to falter...
I wouldn't buy generally hedge on index. more than 70% of the time, market goes up. Rather I would hedge overvalued stocks that occupy large position in my portfolio.
Also remember that when you buy puts, time is not on your side. need to figure out when and how long to hedge .
SPY puts and VIX calls are my core hedges. SPY puts cover broad market downside, while VIX calls can surge when fear spikes. Timing is key — I’ll take profits fast if volatility explodes. As for gold, I prefer waiting for the first liquidity dip before buying in, rather than chasing it now.
I’m also watching macro triggers like the yen carry trade or a sudden Fed pivot. Each crash is different, so flexibility matters. For now, I’m riding the AI wave — just with a parachute on my back, ready for any turbulence ahead.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments
cannot find vix calls or spx puts
With the market so concentrated in a few mega-cap tech stocks, I'm increasing my 'dry powder' (cash/short-term Treasuries). I see this as the simplest defense against an 'AI bubble' risk, giving me preserved capital ready to buy quality assets at a steep discount if a correction hits.