Market Rollercoaster! Chip Stocks Lead Rally: Can Bull Run Continue?
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is rising over 1% during trading session.
Market rally is driven by $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ beats. 📈 Bookings reached €5.4 billion ($6.3 billion) this quarter, compared to €4.9 billion expected by analysts.
In the past four quarters, ASML had missed outlook expectations and plunged sharply on earnings day — this beat was a rare surprise.
Yesterday, chip stocks saw a major pullback, but today ASML pulled them right back up.
The bad part for market now: Trump.
When TACO is anticipated for too long, it stops working — especially in this highly uncertain “Trump era,” where sanctions and tariffs can appear at any time, potentially triggering another round of cascading liquidations in the short term.
Investors can only sigh: the real market god doesn’t predict the candlestick chart, they draw it themselves.
Should we sell calls on recent surging stocks?
If you go long, you worry he’ll reignite a trade war; if you short, you worry he’ll “TACO” the market.
Yesterday’s market swung violently: down at open, up mid-day, then plunged again — a Trump-driven market through and through.
Before the open, Trump and Bessent both made tough remarks, threatening to escalate the trade war, sending the Nasdaq down over 2% at one point.
Mid-session, WSJ reported that Trump privately discussed signaling a willingness to ease trade tensions with China — markets immediately rebounded.
Then, near the close, Trump said that “not buying U.S. soybeans is an act of economic hostility,” sending the market diving again.
It’s been one dramatic twist after another — on Trump’s talking days, neither bulls nor bears are safe.
From $Broadcom(AVGO)$’s recent performance, the price stimulus from OpenAI has already weakened compared with prior weeks. The market is becoming used to — or skeptical of — OpenAI’s ability to sustain this AI bubble. So, could betting against further skyrocket rallies in high-fliers like $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , $Broadcom(AVGO)$ , and $Oracle(ORCL)$ now be a more cost-effective and certain trade?
The good part: Powell injects liquidity into the market.
What exactly did Powell say last night?
Due to the U.S. government shutdown delaying key economic data, based on current information, the Fed found signs of a cooling labor market, meaning overheating pressures are easing — giving room for potential rate cuts.
Powell also hinted that the Fed could pause quantitative tightening in the coming months, providing strong liquidity support to markets.
While he didn’t explicitly announce a rate cut, the market now prices in a 97.3% probability of a rate cut in October. Powell’s tone seemed mild, but his message soothed bearish sentiment across markets.
Discussion
1. Which narrative will prevail next? Trump tariffs or more liquidity?
2. Will earnings season bring more good news to market?
3. Will you choose selling calls?
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昨天的市場劇烈波動：開盤下跌，午盤上漲，然後再次暴跌——這是一個徹頭徹尾的特朗普驅動的市場。
only stocks which I don't want, can sell covered calls.
let's hope the pullback is over as the index reclaims 20 ma.
1. Which narrative will prevail next?
It's a tug-of-war, but more liquidity seems likely to have a more immediate impact, although Trump's tariffs remain a significant longer-term threat
- Liquidity Boost: The market is pricing in a high probability of a rate cut, which would inject liquidity and potentially soothe some of the turmoil
- Tariff Impact: Trump-era tariffs continue to cast a long shadow, creating economic headwinds and market volatility. Tariffs could also cause the stock market to crash
- Government Shutdown: A government shutdown adds another layer of uncertainty, delaying economic data and potentially eroding confidence
2. Will earnings season bring more good news to market?
The outlook is mixed. While some sectors are expected to perform well, others face challenges
- Positive Signs: Analysts initially raised earnings estimates, and strong performance is expected from the technology sector, particularly those involved in the "AI arms race".
Given the current market volatility, selling calls could be risky, but it depends on specific circumstances and risk tolerance
- Volatility: High implied volatility suggests that big moves are expected, which could make selling calls more dangerous
- Potential Strategy: Some traders use high implied volatility as an opportunity to sell premium, hoping the underlying stock won't move as much as expected.
从个股来看，$博通(AVGO)$ 最近的表现其实说明了AI题材的热度在退烧。OpenAI相关概念股的刺激力明显减弱，市场开始怀疑这波AI行情还能不能撑得住。相比之下，我认为$AMD$、$AVGO$、$Oracle(ORCL)$这些公司反而开始显得“性价比”更高——它们有基本面支撑、估值也还算合理，不像一些AI题材股那样虚高。
好消息是，鲍威尔昨晚的讲话确实起到安抚作用。他提到劳动力市场开始降温，暗示美国经济的过热压力正在缓解，这为未来降息打开了空间。更重要的是，美联储可能暂时暂停量化紧缩(QT)，这对市场来说就是实打实的“放水”。难怪市场立刻将10月降息的概率定价到97.3%。
如果要说接下来的主线，我倾向认为“流动性叙事”会暂时压过“特朗普关税”这一边。毕竟钱一多，市场自然有底气。但财报季仍是关键——若AI或半导体巨头的业绩不达预期，行情随时可能反转。至于是否卖评级？我会更谨慎，选择持有优质科技股，同时保留现金，以备下次特朗普再发“推文地震”。
With ASML, TSMC, and Nvidia reaffirming strong AI demand, this earnings season could bring more upside surprises, especially if profit margins hold despite higher input costs. However, weaker consumer or financial results may remind investors that growth is uneven.
Selling calls makes sense only for those seeking to lock in gains amid high volatility, as the VIX spike lifts option premiums. For long-term bulls, staying partially hedged while riding the AI trend might offer the best balance between protection and participation.
Trump’s unpredictable statements continue to swing the market. Trade threats, then hints of easing tensions, make it hard to stay comfortable on either side. High-fliers like $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Oracle(ORCL)$ may be losing momentum, and selling calls on these surging names could now be a smarter trade.
Powell’s dovish signals offer some relief. A cooling labor market and a pause in quantitative tightening support liquidity, with markets pricing a near-certain rate cut in October. For me, the question is which narrative prevails — Trump’s tariffs or Fed liquidity — and I’m staying nimble as earnings season unfolds.
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