Bears Wave the White Flag (For Now)
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$
The large put order $SOXL 20260612 170.0 PUT$ closed faster than expected — marking the end of this round of selling.
The bears had hoped to push this down to the 10-day or even 20-day moving average. But dip buyers showed up in force, far outnumbering the panicked sellers. Expect more one-day pullbacks like this in the future — but not necessarily more follow-through.
Sony's base case: 25. Bull case: 30.
On Monday, a 60k contract order hit the July 25 call $SONY 20260717 25.0 CALL$ . Another 9k were added Tuesday. Open interest now sits at 70k.
Sorting by new open interest over the last 5 days shows a cluster of bullish bets targeting 25–30.
Nokia is waking up again. Scanning the past 5 days, there are multiple large far-dated calls: $NOK 20261218 24.0 CALL$ and $NOK 20270115 25.0 CALL$ . Looks like the market is aiming for 25. Not unreasonable, given its current market cap is below $100B.
Put flow suggests Intel could pull back to the 20-day moving average — around 90-something. But that increasingly seems like a stretch. Positive news flow keeps coming. You never know when the next partnership announcement will drop. The window for shorts is narrow.
In theory, long-term partnership revenue and profit take time to materialize. The market could reassess post-earnings and drive a pullback. But judging from last quarter, the valuation framework no longer seems to care much about near-term cash flow. That's unlikely to change until at least next quarter.
The large short position is gone, but the overall put picture still points to May as a corrective month. Chasing Intel with leverage here is tough. Selling puts, on the other hand, isn't bad — consider a strike at the 10-day MA, around 115.
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