From Leaders to Laggards: Is Memory Waiting on Micron? Memory gave back Tuesday's gains on Wednesday. SanDisk fell 3.73%, SK Hynix 3.12% and Micron 2.22%. The selling carried on into Thursday's pre-market, then all three bounced on Friday as oil eased after the Trump–Xi meeting. They fell together and bounced together, so this is one trade, not three. The real test is Micron's report after the close on September 30, which is about 4 AM on October 1 in Singapore. Wall Street expects $50.91 billion in revenue and $31.49 in earnings per share. Management guided about 86% gross margin, but also said price increases are moderating. The quarter also has 14 weeks, one more than usual. Bull case: 16 take-or-pay contracts lock in about $100 billion through 2030. HBM4 has already shipped over $1 bil
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $GOOGL: Cloud revenue doubled. Free cash flow went negative. Here's my sell put line. Where the stock sits • Wednesday close $293.45 (+2.11%) • 52-week range $270.70–408.61. Now 28.2% below the high. • Down 16.6% in a month and 6.1% this year • On Oct 29, the day after Q3 results, it fell 12.6% to $283.82, its worst day as a public company What Q3 said The strong part: • Revenue $127.6B, up 25%, its 13th straight quarter of double-digit growth • Google Cloud $30.7B, up 103%, driven by AI infrastructure, AI solutions and sales of its own TPU systems The weak part: • Search $63.35B, up 12%, against $64.96B expected. Growth slowed from 17% in Q2. • EPS $2.12 against $3.01 expected. Most of the miss was an unrealized loss on
$AMD: Google picked EPYC. The stock is up 36.7% in four sessions. Here's my sell put. The four sessions • Thu Nov 5: $404.40 (−17.26%), the AI chip crash • Fri Nov 6: $449.04 (+11.04%), a sector bounce • Mon Nov 9: $508.58 (+13.26%). Google Cloud named EPYC as the host CPU for its TPU 8tx, and Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform with a $600 target. • Tue Nov 10: $515.21 (+1.30%). Anthropic's IPO filing showed AMD buying $2.5B of Anthropic shares, part of AMD's commitment of up to $5B linked to Anthropic deploying up to 2 GW of AMD chips. • Wed Nov 11: $552.90 (+7.32%) on CoreWeave's results and a UBS note on growing CPU sales. About $574 after hours. From $404.40 to $552.90 is +36.7%. The stock is still 14.9% below its $649.42 record close. What Google actually said AMD's 5th Gen EPYC chips
$CRWV 20261211 44.0 PUT$ $CRWV: Revenue +168%, guidance raised. The interest bill: $846M in one quarter. CoreWeave reported Q3 after Tuesday's close (Nov 10). The beat • Revenue $3.66B, up 168%, against $3.55B expected. That's over $1B more than last quarter. • Adjusted loss per share −$0.95, against −$1.16 expected • Adjusted operating income $379M, against the company's own $200–260M guidance. Margin reached double digits a quarter early. • Backlog (contracted future revenue) $132.5B, up 138%. It was $104B in June. The raise • Full-year 2026 revenue now $13.0–13.3B, against $12.86B expected • Adjusted operating income $1.275–1.375B, against $1.07B expected • Annualised revenue run-rate guided to $20–21B by the end of t
$NVDA: The CEO discount. Market +2.35%, chips up, Nvidia alone fell. Monday in numbers • NVDA closed at $178.67, down 4.27% (−$7.97). It was down about 7% at one point intraday. • It was NVDA's lowest close since April, and about $192B of market value gone in one session. • The rest of the market rallied hard: – S&P 500 +2.35% to 7,549.94, its best day since April 8 – Nasdaq 100 +3.40% – All 11 sectors rose, and 418 S&P stocks rose against 80 that fell – The VIX fell 22% to 19.92, its first close under 20 since the selloff began • Nvidia's suppliers and rivals rose: AMD +9.22%, TSMC +6.5%, SK Hynix +4.7% That last point is the key one. If investors were worried about AI chip demand, TSMC and SK Hynix would have fallen with Nvidia. Instead they rose. This is a discount on Nvidia's l
$AMD: Shipments have started. Gross margin is the real test. My sell put pick. The two days • Thursday: −17.26% to $404.40 in the AI chip selloff. Intraday low $402.10. • Friday: +11.04% to $449.04 on 45.7M shares, about double the ~22M average. No AMD-specific news; the whole chip sector bounced (SOX +4.2%). • AMD is still 30.9% below its record of $649.42. The topic asks what would confirm this is more than an oversold bounce. My answer goes through all three candidates. 1. MI450 shipments: already happening On the Nov 3 call, management said Q3 was "the first quarter that we shipped MI455 and Helios racks for revenue." Volume shipments went to customers including Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle. Management also said: "We have a big step up in Q4. We'll continue to ramp thr
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $NVDA: The CEO admitted the affair. The board opened a probe. Do I sell puts? What actually happened • Sunday, Nov 8: Jensen Huang emailed Nvidia staff. In his words: "I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did." He said he had "fallen short" of his responsibility to shareholders and employees, and that he is "fully committed to Nvidia." • The same day, Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation, run by independent directors with outside counsel. The board said it "has no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised," but that its inquiry "will examine all available information." It also said it has confidence in Huang and
$Palantir(PLTR)$ $PLTR: Revenue +96%. Contracts +6%. Here's my sell put pick. Palantir closed Friday at $160.38. That is 23.3% below its record close of $209.05 on Oct 9. Thursday it fell 9.7% to $154.99. That was its eighth straight losing day, and the biggest one-day drop since Feb 4 (−11.6%). Friday bounced 3.48%. Why it fell 1. New contracts slowed. US commercial total contract value (TCV, the lifetime value of deals signed) grew just 11% this quarter, against 153% in Q2. Total TCV grew 6%, against 49% in Q2. 2. The pipeline slowed. US commercial remaining deal value (contracts still to be paid out) grew only 4% from Q2. Last quarter it grew 27%. 3. Growth is cooling. The Q4 guidance of $2.649–2.653B means about 15% growth over Q3, down
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Bounce: yes. Bottom: not proven. How I'm selling puts into it. Thursday was the worst day for US stocks since April 2025. • Nasdaq −5.5%, S&P 500 −4.4%, chip index (SOX) −12.25% • The Magnificent 7 lost about $1 trillion in market value • Losing stocks outnumbered winners 6.1 to 1 on the S&P • 26.9B shares traded, against a 17.7B average • The Nasdaq fell into correction (10%+ off its high) Friday bounced, but only partly. • Nasdaq +1.09% to 24,579 • S&P +0.31% to 7,377 • Dow −0.46% • The VIX (fear gauge) fell from 28.18 to 23.72. It was 16.61 on Wednesday. • For the week: Nasdaq −3.4%, S&P −2.7%. The S&P is still +7.8% for the year. Where the money went Dip buyers went back into the stocks hit hardest on
$UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $UNH: Beat, raised, raised again. Still sold. Here's my sell put pick. UnitedHealth closed Thursday at $395.36, down 3.42% (−$14.02). It opened at $412.20 and fell below $400 by the close. That is about 14% under its 52-week high of $461.62. Why it fell 1. Medical cost fear is back. Investors worry that patients are using more care, which squeezes the profit UNH keeps from premiums. On the Q3 call, management said cost growth in its commercial (employer) plans is running above the 11% it first assumed. That is the soft spot. 2. A risk-off day. Nasdaq fell more than 5% and the semiconductor index fell 12%. A defensive Dow stock with a 0.62 beta still got sold with everything else. What Q3 actually said (Oct 13) • Adjusted
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD Fell 17.26% Two Days After the Best Quarter in Its History. Here's Why, What the Report Actually Said, and My Exact Sell-Put Trigger and Strike Written Friday 6 Nov, SGT, using Thursday's US close. WHAT HAPPENED AMD closed Thursday at $404.40, down $84.38 (-17.26%) from $488.78. - Intraday range: $402.10 to $456.20 - Volume: 71.2 million shares, more than three times the 21.8 million average - From the Oct 6 record close of $649.42: -37.7% Two days earlier, AMD had reported what Lisa Su called its largest and most profitable quarter ever. AMD didn't fall alone. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12.2% to 9,011.14, its biggest one-day fall in about six and a half years. All 30 members closed lower.