To The Moon

$CRWV 20261211 44.0 PUT$  

$CRWV: Revenue +168%, guidance raised. The interest bill: $846M in one quarter.

CoreWeave reported Q3 after Tuesday's close (Nov 10).

The beat

• Revenue $3.66B, up 168%, against $3.55B expected. That's over $1B more than last quarter.

• Adjusted loss per share −$0.95, against −$1.16 expected

• Adjusted operating income $379M, against the company's own $200–260M guidance. Margin reached double digits a quarter early.

• Backlog (contracted future revenue) $132.5B, up 138%. It was $104B in June.

The raise

• Full-year 2026 revenue now $13.0–13.3B, against $12.86B expected

• Adjusted operating income $1.275–1.375B, against $1.07B expected

• Annualised revenue run-rate guided to $20–21B by the end of the year

• Active power above 1.7 GW across 52 data centres, 4.6 GW contracted, more than 1.85 GW expected by year-end

The other side of the page

• GAAP operating income $207M, then $846M of interest expense, for a net loss of $709M

• Q4 interest expense guided to $1.05–1.15B

• Q3 capex $14.5B; full-year capex $37–39B

• Debt about $46.9B; net debt about $42.7B

• Cash burned after capex over the last 12 months: about $20.4B (Cestrian)

Management's answer to the debt question

1. About $9B of customer prepayments and deposits are expected in the next three months, and more than $3B of that is for capacity already built

2. More than 75% of committed capex through 2027 is tied to investment-grade and enterprise customers

3. Most of the remaining capex will be financed with loans matched to specific customer contracts

The timing problem

On Tuesday, October CPI came in hot: headline +0.4% against +0.3% expected. The 10-year Treasury yield went back to about 5% and the 2-year jumped 17 basis points. A company paying about $1.1B a quarter in interest doesn't want rates going up.

Nvidia owns about 9% of CoreWeave and is its key supplier. Jensen Huang said in October that CoreWeave's "cost of capital is actually decreasing." But Nvidia is now dealing with its own board investigation into its CEO.

How the stock reacted

• Closed Tuesday at $48.73 (−0.51%) on 58.1M shares

• Overnight it jumped to around $54, then swung back. The options market had priced a move of about ±18–21%.

• Still about 65% below its May high

• The Nov 5 low was $40.58

My read: the business delivered. The balance sheet hasn't caught up. With the 10-year near 5%, every rate move is a cost CoreWeave pays.

Checking it against my rules

❌ Trend: $48.73 against a 200-day around $98.6, about 50% below. It would need to double to clear it.

✅ Earnings: done. The next report is early 2027, after the Dec 18 expiry.

✅ Volatility: 30-day IV 120.8%, IV rank 79 (Nov 9). Expect it to drop to roughly 85–95% now that earnings are out.

The strike math (Dec 18, 37 days, ~90% IV)

• 1 standard deviation down ≈ $35

• $35 has delta 0.09, too far out to be worth selling

• $38 has delta 0.15, model premium ≈ $1.10–1.45, break-even ≈ $36.7

• $38 is 22% below Tuesday's close and below the Nov 5 low of $40.58

My call: $38 is my line, and it's not a trade yet. Under my rules, a stock 50% below its 200-day is a falling knife whatever the earnings say.

If you run looser rules, use 1% size at most, re-price at the open, stop at 2.5× the credit and take profit at 50%.

The verdict: beat-and-raise doesn't fix a broken chart. I'd rather miss the bounce than catch a leveraged knife.

Personal framework, education only, not advice. Premiums are Black-Scholes estimates, not live quotes. Options carry risk, including assignment.

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