To The Moon

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is rebounding broadly, shaking off recent weakness as a confluence of resilient economic data and central bank divergence re-energizes the greenback. Saxo highlights a "new and broad comeback" for the USD, driven by a risk-off rotation in equities (tech sell-off) and a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations. J.P. Morgan notes that despite the chaotic start to February for commodities, the divergence between rising metals and falling energy is a "healthy correction," not a turning point, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. Domestically, the labor market remains the key battleground; Nomura points out that while ADP private payrolls disappointed (22k vs 45k exp), initial jobless claims rose to 231k, partly due to winter storms, keeping the "soft

CTA had been turning short on US 10 Yr since end Nov, (max long) seemed to have been caught out by recent recovery but would say they are probably still in the money as they are far from max short positions

My machine driven prediction for 5th Feb suggest that based on my selected fundamentally driven factors (oil/demand related), front brent futures is about 68.30 vs 67.55 settled yesterday. This contrast to my initial assumption that brent is factoring risk premium of 2-3/bbl due to Iran/other geopoilitical reasons (1st Pict). On the other hand, CTA has been accumulating lengths over the 1 to 1.5 mths, flipping to max long positions now. Should Brent move down to about 66/bbl level, in my view we will start to see the momentum/trend driven CTA starting a wave of selling (2nd Pict).

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil markets have shown significant volatility, initially retreating from recent highs before finding support from renewed geopolitical risks. Prices edged higher as traders digested conflicting reports regarding US-Iran nuclear talks, with initial reports of a cancellation driving prices up before confirmation that talks would proceed in Oman calmed sentiment. J.P. Morgan maintains a structurally bearish outlook for the medium term, forecasting Brent to average $73/bbl in 2026 due to robust non-OPEC+ supply growth outpacing demand. However, immediate support comes from US inventory data showing a 3.5 million barrel draw in crude stocks, although this was less than some industry expectations. Key Themes Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East remain a primar

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Erases All Post-Election Gains, Plunging to $62K Amid "Full Capitulation" Bitcoin has officially wiped out all gains made since Donald Trump's 2024 election victory, crashing to a low of $62,200 on February 5 before stabilizing near $65,000. The collapse marks a 30% correction from its January peak, driven by a "perfect storm" of macro headwinds: dismal U.S. economic data, fears of an AI bubble burst, and intense geopolitical strain. On-chain metrics scream "capitulation," with Glassnode reporting the second-largest forced selling spike in two years. Despite the carnage, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw record daily volume of $10 billion, suggesting that while retail panics, institutions are stepping in to absorb the liquidity event. The market mood is grim, with sentiment hi

After 2weeks of adjustments, CTA are now back to max shorts at CAD, max long EUR, maintaining their length at AUD while keeping JPY slightly long.

Daily Crypto Market Summary 5 Feb 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Plunges to 15-Month Low as ETF Outflows Top $2.9 Billion Bitcoin has suffered a severe correction, dropping to a 15-month low below $72,000 ($71,986) with a daily decline of nearly 6%. The sell-off has wiped out approximately **$500 billion** in market cap since mid-January, driven by a relentless exodus of institutional capital. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $2.9 billion in outflows over the past 12 days, signaling a significant "risk-off" rotation by asset managers. The market structure appears bearish, with $800 million in liquidations (mostly longs) exacerbating the downside. Despite the carnage, fundamental developments suggest long-term resilience. Cipher Mining's AI subsidiary attracted a staggering $13 billion in deman

Daily Currency Market Report - 4 Feb 2026 1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is trading defensively, struggling to maintain its recent rebound as domestic data softens and geopolitical crosscurrents intensify. Goldman Sachs highlights that while the Senate passed a funding bill to avert a shutdown, the January ADP employment report missed expectations (rising just 22k vs 45k consensus), signaling a potential "low-hiring" environment that could weigh on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls data. This softness, combined with a mixed ISM Services report, has tempered the market's enthusiasm for a hawkish Fed repricing. J.P. Morgan notes that despite the "Fed independence" noise, the dollar's inability to rally on recent yield spikes suggests buyer exhaustion. Geopolitically, the focus is on US-I